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Viewing cable 07KABUL1172, SUBJECT: Afghanistan: Aynak Copper Deposit: A Test Case for
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| Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07KABUL1172 | 2007-04-10 07:21 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Kabul |
VZCZCXRO9287
PP RUEHDBU RUEHIK RUEHPW RUEHYG
DE RUEHBUL #1172/01 1000721
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 100721Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7390
INFO RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC 0420
RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
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RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 3928
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 KABUL 001172
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TAGS: EMIN ECON ENRG EFIN ETRD ELTN PGOV AF
SUBJECT: SUBJECT: Afghanistan: Aynak Copper Deposit: A Test Case for
Afghanistan
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Please protect accordingly.
SUMMARY
-------
¶1. (SBU) The large Aynak copper deposit has the potential to
generate the first significant, long-term international investment
in Afghanistan. Nine companies, including the American firm Phelps
Dodge, are in the fray in a competitive bidding process. The bids
are due on May 15 and will be followed by an evaluation process,
selection and negotiations with the winner for a long term
concession. In addition to a possible $300-400 million annual
revenue stream for the GOA and significant direct and indirect
employment and infrastructure and services benefits, a successful
Aynak deal could boost investor confidence. It is important for
Afghanistan's economic development that the GOA gets this process
right. If the process stalls, there is hint of non-transparent
dealings, or either side is seen to have received an unfair bargain,
the experience could have a chilling impact on an already difficult
investment climate.
¶2. (SBU) The Aynak privatization process has proceeded well to date
but faces a number of potential pitfalls which we will need to watch
closely. The most pressing concern is whether the Ministry of Mines
can successfully manage the next steps. To structure a credible
deal, MOM will need the services of a recognized international legal
firm to assist in upcoming negotiations with the selected winner
(see septel action request). A complicated, multi-year
international project such as Aynak will inevitably generate varying
expectations, differing interpretations, disagreements and disputes
among the parties. Close Embassy and donor monitoring will be
required to promote transparency and fairness. END SUMMARY.
Aynak: Crucial Investment For Afghanistan
-----------------------------------------
¶3. (U) The copper deposit at Aynak, 35 kilometers south east of
Kabul, has the potential to generate the first large-scale,
long-term international mining investment in Afghanistan. The
competitive bid process, which has been moving forward steadily, is
now at a critical juncture. Success or failure of the process is
likely to have a wide-ranging impact on the nascent relationship
between Afghanistan and the international investment community. If
the concession award process is seen to be transparent, both the GOA
and the successful bidder are seen to get a fair deal, and it leads
to a successful extraction venture, this project could assist in
"re-branding" Afghanistan as a place where international
corporations can do business.
World Class Deposit
-------------------
¶4. (U) The Aynak deposit has been described by most experts as a
"world-class" copper resource. The copper occurrence is a
sedimentary hosted deposit similar to copper deposits in Zambia.
Located in northern Loghar province, the deposit is estimated to
contain 185 million metric tons of ore at a grade of 2.37 percent
copper. At unusually high current world copper prices ($2.50 per
pound), the gross value of this resource is estimated at $25
billion. Using a more realistic projection of copper prices of
$1.50 per pound, the gross value would be closer to $15 billion.
The initial capital expenditure required for mine development
(excluding cost for a potential smelting operation) is estimated at
$600-900 million. If focused exploration were to begin in 2008, the
project could be expected to commence operation in 2012-2014. This
5-7 year development period would include feasibility analysis,
environmental assessment, design and construction. Mining is
expected to include both open-pit and underground extraction. The
KABUL 00001172 002 OF 005
mine life is estimated at 30 years.
Economic Impact
---------------
¶5. (U) In addition to a possible $300-400 million annual revenue
stream for the GOA and a boost in investor confidence, a successful
Aynak will generate significant direct and indirect benefits. It
should create hundreds of jobs during construction as well as
hundreds of permanent jobs during operations. It should also create
significant indirect employment in the backward and forward services
linkages and ancillary businesses that emerge to support the
operation. Second, the mine should help develop local
infrastructure, including both physical infrastructure (e.g. energy)
and services infrastructure (e.g. transport and other related
businesses). It may also help in forcing improvements in the
customs and transit operations. If the winning proposal includes a
smelting operation, the benefits could be much greater.
Status of Bidding Process
-------------------------
¶6. (U) The competitive bidding for mineral rights at Aynak is
currently underway. After collecting and disseminating preliminary
data with help from the British Geological Survey, the Ministry of
Mines (MOM) in November 2006 solicited and received 13 expressions
of interest from major international mining companies. These were
narrowed down to a "short list" of nine (see para 14), including
U.S. firm Phelps Dodge, to which the GOA sent bid information
packages. The bids are due by May 14, 2007, which allows a period
for "due diligence" visits by the prospective bidders. The World
Bank selected international natural resources appraisal firm
Gustavson Associates to act as the transaction advisor for the
tendering process. Gustavson has prepared to international standards
the tender documents which include instructions for bidders, rules
for negotiation, and a model contract. The Minister of Mines has
been closely involved in the process, and although he has
occasionally had differing views, he has generally accepted the
guidance of Gustavson and MOM's international advisors. In general,
the process to date has been transparent and successful. Perhaps
the key factor in this success is that key decisions are made by an
inter-ministerial committee of GOA officials, including the Finance
Minster and the Minister of Economy and closely counseled by
international advisors.
Next Steps Planned in the Bidding Process
-----------------------------------------
¶7. (U) After receiving bids on May 14, the GOA plans to evaluate
them thoroughly to select the preferred bidder about mid-June. The
GOA would open negotiations with the winner on or around June 26,
¶2007. Upon the conclusion of negotiations (expected to take around
60 days) and signing of the contract, the chosen bidder would be
required to begin work on the project. This initial work will
consist of confirmation drilling and the development of an
environmental impact assessment. This process is designed to bring
the project to the pre-feasibility stage. Should the negotiations
with the winning bidder fail, the GOA can open negotiations with the
runner-up. Terms of the model contract, drafted by Gustavson
Associates, conform to international best practice with regard to
royalties, social and environmental impact, and other critical
factors. The model contract also reflects international best
practice (including the IMF "Equator Principles") in requiring that
the venture generate a positive economic and social impact on the
region. Two licenses will be awarded to the successful bidder: an
exploitation license to develop the known copper occurrence at Aynak
as well as an exploration concession for at least three other known
copper occurrences nearby. Embassy has been told that these copper
deposits are very promising and that the keen interest in bidding
KABUL 00001172 003 OF 005
for Aynak is driven in part by the eagerness of companies to win the
rights to these other deposits.
Potential Pitfalls
------------------
¶8. (SBU) The Aynak privatization process faces a number of
potential pitfalls, which will have to be closely monitored by the
Embassy and the donor community. The most pressing concern is
whether MOM can successfully manage the next steps. Minister of
Mines Ibrahim Adel has been inclined to micromanage the process
despite limited familiarity with a commercial extraction project of
this type and magnitude. Although the World Bank has provided
technical assistance and has funded the American firm Gustavson to
assist MOM and prepare the tender documents, we understand that the
World Bank assistance does not include resources to hire the
services of a recognized legal firm to assist the MOM in upcoming
negotiations. The selected bidder will undoubtedly bring a team of
heavy-hitting international attorneys to the negotiating table. MOM
will need the services of similarly competent international legal
expertise to assist in upcoming negotiations and to provide
practical training to one or more Afghan attorneys. This is
critical for ensuring that the GOA gets a fair bargain and is able
to navigate the complex commercial, technical, and financial issues
that bear on success. (Septel will provide action request for
Washington on this issue.)
¶9. (SBU) The Minister of Mines appears to have quite firm ideas on
what the deal should bring to the GOA. This may lead him to
centralize decision-making authority away from the current broad
committee of stakeholders. It may also lead to the MOM simply
stating its preferred terms and refusing to negotiate in good faith.
We will need, therefore, to work with others in the donor community
and with the international advisors to manage GOA expectations. The
Embassy's Afghanistan Reconstruction Group is taking the lead role
in monitoring this process.
¶10. (SBU) There is a suspicion among MOM's international advisors
that some bidders (i.e., the Russian and Chinese firms) would offer
an accelerated development schedule with commencement of operation
within 3-5 years instead of the more realistic 5-7 years. The GOA
may find such an offer very tempting and give less weight to other
elements of the bid criteria. Given the high likelihood that these
firms would slip on such a tight schedule, the GOA could end up with
a sub-par bid as well as a longer commencement schedule.
¶11. (U) Aynak's substantial energy requirements pose an onerous
challenge for the bidders. While simple extraction will require
40-50 MW of power, the addition of a smelting operation would raise
the requirement to 80-100 MW. Although the selected company will be
responsible for putting in place its own power needs, the GOA can
help support this process by integrating Aynak's power needs into
its nation-wide energy sector strategy. If smelting becomes a
serious part of the planning, further exploration of water resources
may also be necessary.
¶12. (SBU) Another area that the GOA and the donor community should
pay attention to is the handling and ultimate use of GOA revenues
that are expected to accrue from extraction at Aynak. International
experience has demonstrated that large revenues resulting from
natural resource extraction, when managed poorly, can lead to a
variety of economic ills, including corruption, overdependence on
one resource, susceptibility to price fluctuations, and stifling of
other industries.
Comment
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¶13. (SBU) The size and visibility of the Aynak project raises the
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possibility that its success would attract increasing positive
foreign investor attention to Afghanistan as well as foster
improvements to the investment climate. If, on the other hand, the
project reaches an impasse, there is any hint of non-transparent
dealings, or either side is seen to have received an unfair bargain,
the experience is likely to have a long-term chilling impact on an
already difficult investment climate. In particular, if there is a
perception among the Afghan people that a multinational company has
swindled them out of their national asset -- stolen the crown jewels
-- it will damage significantly the prospects for future foreign
investment projects. The harm would be difficult to reverse. Thus,
close donor monitoring will be required throughout the bidding and
negotiating processes to promote transparency and fairness. The
World Bank consultant's efforts to steer the GOA towards a
transparent and market driven process based on international best
practices are key to this effort. Identifying donor assistance to
fund legal advice for the GOA in the upcoming negotiations with the
winning bidder will also be critical.
¶14. (SBU) We should be prepared for long term engagement on Aynak.
A successful concession award will be followed by a relationship
between the GOA and the winning bidder which will no doubt encounter
many challenges. A complicated, multi-year international project
such as Aynak will inevitably generate varying expectations,
differing interpretations, disagreements and disputes among the
parties; the international community may be called upon at some
point by one side or both to intercede. End Comment.
Short-Listed Companies
----------------------
¶15. (U) Short list of prospective bidders, with profiles compiled
by MOM's advisors:
-- Hunter Dickinson Inc. (HDI), Canada (www.hdgold.com): Based in
Vancouver, HDI is a diversified mining company with interests around
the globe. HDI currently manages eight companies in North America,
Africa and Asia and has interests in gold, PGE and base metals. To
date the company has raised over $500M to invest in its projects.
-- MCC China Metallurgical Group (MCC), China
www.cec-ceda.org.cn/english_version/): MCC is a state-owned
conglomerate of 70 companies with a reported combined asset value of
32 billion yuan. The group has diverse interests including
construction, iron and steel making as well as geotechnical
surveying and scientific research, and is ranked in the top 50
companies in China.
-- Tyazhpromexport, Russia (http://enc.ex.ru/cgi-bin/):
Tyazhpromexport is a state-owned enterprise specializing in the
export and import of complete plant and equipment for facilities
producing ferrous and non-ferrous metals. It was responsible for the
feasibility study of the Aynak deposit and, therefore, should have a
good knowledge of the techniques used and resources.
-- Zijin Mining Group Co. Ltd, China (http://english. zjky.cn/):
Zijin is a leading Chinese gold and base metal producer listed on
the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The group is principally engaged in
the exploration of gold, copper and other non-ferrous metals.
-- Hindalco Industries Ltd, India (www.hindalco.com):
Hindalco is ranked in the top ten companies in India and has core
businesses in aluminium and copper. It imports copper concentrate
from Indonesia and South America and operates two copper mines in
Australia. Hindalco also owns the largest copper refining and
smelting operation in India, and it is registered on the London
Metal Exchange as a grade "A" producer.
-- Kazakhmys Consortium LLC, Kazahkstan (www.kazakhmys.com):
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Kazakhmys is a copper mining company headquartered in Dzhezkazgan.
Its principal business is the mining, processing, smelting, refining
and sale of copper and copper products, including cathodes and rods.
In October 2005, it listed on the London Stock Exchange with an
opening market capitalization of #5 billion.
-- Phelps Dodge Corporation, USA (www.phelpsdodge.com):
Phelps Dodge Corp. is one of the world's leading producers of copper
with operations in North and South America, Europe, Africa and
China. The company is a world leader in the production of
molybdenum, and the largest producer of molybdenum-based chemicals
and continuous-cast copper rod. The company's two divisions, Phelps
Dodge Mining Co. and Phelps Dodge Industries, employ 15,000 people
worldwide.
-- Bahar Consortium, Australia (www.sallymalay.co and
www.intec.com.au): This is a consortium between three Australian
companies, Sally Malay Mining Ltd., Intec Ltd. and Pearl Mining and
Metals. Sally Malay owns and operates the Sally Malay nickel-copper
mine and the Lafranchi nickel mine in Western Australia. Intec is
the world's leader in chloride hydrometallurgy and is currently
developing the Hellyer Metals Project in north western Tasmania.
Pearl Mining is an Australian group of that arranges funding for
mining projects in developing countries.
-- Strikeforce Ltd, Russia (Souzmetallresourc), Russia:
Souzmetallresourc (SMR) manages the mining and exploration assets of
Basic Element Group, one of the largest investment groups in Russia.
The core assets of the Group are in energy, machinery, resources,
financial services, and construction and development.
Norland