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Viewing cable 07ABUJA582, MISSION PLANS TO OBSERVE NIGERIAN ELECTIONS

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07ABUJA582 2007-03-26 13:53 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Abuja
VZCZCXRO5504
PP RUEHCD
DE RUEHUJA #0582/01 0851353
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 261353Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY ABUJA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8990
INFO RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW PRIORITY 0187
RUEHCD/AMCONSUL CIUDAD JUAREZ PRIORITY 0185
RUEHOS/AMCONSUL LAGOS PRIORITY 6427
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK PRIORITY
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000582 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/W, AF/EX 
DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY 
AID/W FOR AFR/WA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ASEC AMGT EAID KDEM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: MISSION PLANS TO OBSERVE NIGERIAN ELECTIONS 
 
1.  (SBU) SUMMARY.  Nigerians are scheduled to vote for 
Governors and State Assembly members on April 14 and for the 
President and National Assembly members on April 21.  These 
elections will mark the first transition of power from one 
civilian government to another in Nigeria's history. 
Elections observation will be the Mission's top priority in 
April.  We plan to place accredited Mission staff in the 
field throughout Nigeria's six geopolitical zones and conduct 
an independent vote tallying exercise, with the help of other 
domestic and international partners.  We are hopeful we can 
credibly report not only on the conduct of the elections 
themselves, but also on the validity of announced results in 
the Presidential election and perhaps some of the 
gubernatorial races as well.  END SUMMARY. 
 
OBSERVATION EFFORTS 
------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) The Mission will place observers (accredited 
diplomatic and official passport holders) in all six 
geopolitical zones for both the April 14 and 21 elections, 
fielding approximately 40 and 60 observers, respectively. 
Regional observation teams will be coordinated from the 
following hubs: (1) Abuja for North-Central and the Federal 
Capital Territory (FCT); (2) Bauchi for the North-East; (3) 
Kano for the North-West; (4) Enugu for the South-East; (5) 
Benin City for the South-South; and (6) Lagos for the 
South-West.  Local police and Mission security personnel will 
work closely with the hub coordinators to ensure the quick 
flow of information both to and from observation teams.  Hub 
coordinators will collect anecdotal information from the 
Mission teams, look for regional trends, and report back to 
the Embassy control room, in addition to conducting their own 
observations over the course of the day.  Once the polls 
close, hub coordinators will compile and report tally results 
to the Abuja control room (see Para 5 below).  Approximately 
10 locally engaged staff (LES) will be sent to the various 
regions to support hub coordinators and offer regional 
expertise to deployed teams.  Should run-off elections be 
necessary,  observer teams will be sent to areas deemed to be 
strategically important given the identities of the remaining 
candidates. 
 
3.  (SBU) Mission observers in all geopolitical zones will 
visit some of Nigeria's 120,000 polling stations to assess 
the mechanics of the voting procedure and determine if 
adequate fraud prevention safeguards are in place.  Observers 
will also look out for voting irregularities, including 
intimidation by polling officials, party agents, or police, 
voting by ineligible individuals, ballot box stuffing or 
substitution, and attempts to influence voters' behavior. 
Security permitting, observers will be present for ballot 
counting at various polling stations and collation centers. 
The week between local and national elections allows time for 
Mission observers to regroup in Abuja and Lagos to compare 
notes and, if necessary, adjust strategies.  USAID CEPS 
partners will hold an elections observation training session 
for Mission observers on April 5. 
 
4.  (SBU) Regional team size varies based on the expanse of 
the territory covered and the relative importance given to 
observations gathered in certain places expected to be 
"hotspots."  The largest contingent of observers will be sent 
to the North-West, while (for security reasons) the smallest 
contingent will be positioned in the South-South.  Teams will 
travel in pairs and be accompanied by local Nigerian police 
personnel.  Given the significant existing and potential 
security concerns, no observers will be sent to the following 
states: Rivers, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom, and Delta States. 
Depending on incidents prior to the election and conditions 
on elections day, other cities or states may also be 
proscribed by the Regional Security Office.  Prior to 
elections, hub coordinators will make advance trips to their 
respective regions to meet with stakeholders and Resident 
Electoral Commissioners, sketch out possible travel routes, 
identify polling stations, and confirm hotel and other 
logistical arrangements. 
 
VERIFYING THE PRESIDENTIAL VOTE COUNT 
 
ABUJA 00000582  002 OF 002 
 
 
------------------------------------- 
 
5.  (SBU) The Mission has developed a spreadsheet by which we 
will attempt to independently verify the validity of 
announced results of the Presidential and Gubernatorial 
elections.  The Mission will enlist the assistance of other 
international observers, domestic observers, political party 
polling agents and polling officials to share vote tallies 
from individual polling stations with hub coordinators. 
Based on a sampling of results from 5,000 or more polling 
stations, post estimates our calculations of final results to 
be accurate to within 2 percent for the Presidential 
election.  The same reports will also provide a snapshot of 
any problems on election day, including stolen ballot boxes, 
lack of voting, etc.  Data from duplicative sources (i.e. NGO 
observers and a political party) can be used to spot check 
the validity of the data received.  Once in possession of the 
data, hub coordinators will then call this data in to the 
Abuja control room for entry into specially designed 
spreadsheets.  Based on the necessary 5,000 data points, each 
hub may be reporting results from approximately 850 polling 
centers (allowing for some duplication of reports for 
validation purposes).  Post and Washington may wish to use 
the results of this statistical exercise to craft public 
statements regarding the validity of announced results of the 
elections. 
 
BUDGET FOR THE ELECTION OBSERVATION EFFORT 
------------------------------------------ 
 
6.  (U) Post Management will communicate with AF/EX via 
septel regarding the cost of election coverage and its 
implications for the Mission's budget. 
 
CAMPBELL