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Viewing cable 07ZAGREB163, CROATIAN CENTRAL BANK MOVES TO LIMIT CREDIT GROWTH

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07ZAGREB163 2007-02-13 15:02 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Zagreb
VZCZCXRO6221
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHVB #0163 0441502
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 131502Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7298
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
UNCLAS ZAGREB 000163 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR EUR/SCE, EB/IFD/OMA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIN HR ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
SUBJECT: CROATIAN CENTRAL BANK MOVES TO LIMIT CREDIT GROWTH 
 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: Increasingly concerned by high credit growth, 
Croatia's Central Bank moved recently to further limit lending by 
the country's banks.  The new measures aim to limit credit growth to 
12 percent annually, a significant drop from the 20 percent plus 
growth of the last several years.  The Bank is concerned that 
sustained, high credit growth poses an inflation risk for Croatia's 
import-heavy economy and that it will further worsen the country's 
balance of payments.  The IMF's Zagreb office, although concerned 
about credit growth, expressed skepticism as to the effectiveness of 
these measures.  End Summary. 
 
2. (SBU) Effective January 1, 2007, the Croatian Central Bank 
introduced new measures aimed at limiting the country's high credit 
growth.  Croatia's 2006 credit growth was 23 percent, further 
widening total foreign debt from 82.5 percent of GDP to 86 percent. 
At the same time, the balance of payments deficit grew to 8.1 
percent of GDP. 
 
3. (SBU) The Bank is concerned that such rapid credit growth, which 
is playing a significant role in Croatia's GDP growth (estimated at 
4.6 percent for 2006), will set off inflation and make the economy 
increasingly vulnerable to external shocks.  Croatia's trade deficit 
is also a chronic problem that the government has so far been unable 
to tackle.  Partially because of an exchange rate that makes it 
difficult for domestic products to compete, Croatia's exports amount 
to only 47 percent of imports annually. 
 
4. (SBU) The new measures limit credit growth to 12 percent 
annually, or 1 percent per month.  Banks must file monthly reports 
with the Central Bank and any lending over 1 percent triggers a 
requirement for the banks to buy bills from the Central Bank in the 
amount of 50 percent of the value of lending over the allowed 1 
percent.  This requirement is cumulative, so that banks that go over 
the limit would quickly be required to offset 100 percent of the 
difference. 
 
5. (SBU) The new measures come on top of an existing 55 percent 
marginal reserve requirement on banks' imports of foreign capital. 
This measure has been partially successful in slowing the growth of 
foreign borrowing by banks operating in Croatia.  However, as 93 
percent of the banking sector is foreign owned, many have managed to 
find ways around these restrictions, including direct consumer 
lending from their home offices and leasing arrangements. 
 
6. (SBU) The IMF's out-going resident representative, Athanasios 
Vamvakidis, told EconOff on February 9 that he does not believe the 
latest measures will achieve their desired effect and could have 
unintended consequences.  In his view, the Central Bank's measures 
will not reduce lending, which is essentially demand-driven. 
However, they will succeed in making lending less transparent and 
therefore increase risk. 
 
 
BRADTKE