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Viewing cable 07TOKYO784, DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 02//07

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07TOKYO784 2007-02-23 08:18 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Tokyo
VZCZCXRO5653
PP RUEHFK RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHNH
DE RUEHKO #0784/01 0540818
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 230818Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0974
INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAWJA/USDOJ WASHDC PRIORITY
RULSDMK/USDOT WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J5//
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHMHBA/COMPACFLT PEARL HARBOR HI
RHMFIUU/HQ PACAF HICKAM AFB HI//CC/PA//
RHMFIUU/COMUSJAPAN YOKOTA AB JA//J5/JO21//
RUYNAAC/COMNAVFORJAPAN YOKOSUKA JA
RUAYJAA/COMPATWING ONE KAMI SEYA JA
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA 2446
RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA 9982
RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE 3468
RUEHNAG/AMCONSUL NAGOYA 9403
RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO 0959
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 5894
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 1988
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 3356
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 10 TOKYO 000784 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 02//07 
 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) Editorial: We are concerned about no Cheney-Kyuma meeting 
 
(2) Editorial: Abe, Cheney underline importance of enhanced Japan-US 
alliance that requires constant efforts 
 
(3) Consul General Maher meets deputy governor for exchange of views 
on Futenma, etc.; Confirms prefecture's stance based on assembly 
replies 
 
(4) Interview with former Defense Agency Director General Shigeru 
Ishiba on North Korea 
 
(5) Defense Ministry considering setting up PKO center 
 
(6) Examining the Abe administration (Part 2): Keeping appropriate 
distance from Kasumigaseki essential 
 
(7) Government, opposition parties engage in heated debate over 
social disparity, each side presenting own data 
 
(8) Idea of democratization in China might be an illusion 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Editorial: We are concerned about no Cheney-Kyuma meeting 
 
MAINICHI (Page 5) (Full) 
February 23, 2007 
 
During his visit to Japan, US Vice President Dick Cheney in his 
meetings Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Foreign Minister Taro Aso 
agreed to further strengthen the Japan-US alliance relationship. 
 
Referring in particular to the six-party talks on North Korea's 
nuclear programs, Cheney said that cooperation between Japan and the 
United States was "extremely important." Commenting on the abduction 
issue, he stated, "Resolving the tragedy of abductees is a common 
challenge for Japan and the United States." The vice president also 
met with Shigeru Yokota and his wife on Feb. 22 immediately before 
he left for Australia. Shigeru Yokota is the representative of the 
association of the families of abductees. 
 
At the recent round of the six party talks, agreement was reached 
that energy aid would be provided to North Korea in return for the 
North's decision to abandon its nuclear programs. Japan's position 
is that it will not extend assistance unless progress is made on the 
abduction issue. There is the view concerning that if Japan focuses 
too much on the abduction issue, it will be isolated from other 
six-party members. 
 
Cheney's remark about the abduction issue being a common challenge 
for Japan and the US was an expression of his understanding for 
Japan's position. The Japan-North Korea working group under the 
six-party talks will soon start meeting. It is laudable that Japan 
and the United States were able to confirm bilateral cooperation on 
the North Korea issue. 
 
The main purpose of the vice president's trip to Japan was to 
discuss security issues. However, it is regrettable that a meeting 
between the vice president and Defense Minister Fumio Kyuma did not 
take place. 
 
TOKYO 00000784  002 OF 010 
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 02//07 
 
 
Kyuma criticized the US government's decision to start the war in 
Iraq as a "mistake." He also wanted changes in the Japan-US 
agreement on building a V-shaped runway on the coast of Camp Schwab 
in Nago City as the alternate facility for Futenma Air Station. 
Kyuma, commenting on the US, which has not accepted any revisions, 
said, "The US should not talk so high-handedly." 
 
The government explained that Cheney's tight schedule did not allow 
him to hold a meeting with Kyuma, but Cheney held talks with senior 
Self-Defense Forces (SDF) officials, besides the prime minister and 
foreign minister. It is only natural to assume that the US 
government was unhappy with Kyuma's remarks and thus refused to hold 
a meeting between the two. 
 
On the question of the relocation of the US Marine Corps Futenma Air 
Station, it is reasonable for the central government to make efforts 
to persuade local municipalities to accept the bilateral agreement. 
Kyuma's comment, though, lacked consideration for the United 
States. 
 
In order to play up the need to strengthen the bilateral alliance 
Tokyo and Washington should have aimed at realizing a Cheney-Kyuma 
meeting with both sides making a diplomatic effort. 
 
The government has submitted to the Diet a bill to promote the 
realignment of US forces in Japan. The bill includes Japan's share 
of about six billion dollars for base relocations within Japan, as 
well as the move of 8,000 US Marines in Okinawa to Guam. A total 
figure has yet to be set. So there are many issues that should have 
been discussed with the US. 
 
On the Iraq issue, Abe told Cheney: "Japan also will support Iraq 
through Air Self-Defense Force personnel's operations and official 
development assistance (ODA) programs." The Iraq Special Measures 
Law will expire on July 31. Japan will now begin major debate in the 
Diet on whether to extend ASDF operations in Iraq. 
 
There are many security issues, including missile defense (MD), to 
address. Cooperation between Japan and the United States in dealing 
with the North Korea issue also is crucial. Since Kyuma took over 
the defense minister's portfolio, no Japan-US Security Consultative 
Committee (2 plus 2) meeting has been held. Such a meeting should be 
held as early as possible, and efforts should be made to ease the 
strained ties between Tokyo and Washington. 
 
(2) Editorial: Abe, Cheney underline importance of enhanced Japan-US 
alliance that requires constant efforts 
 
YOMIURI (Page 3) (Full) 
February 23, 2007 
 
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and US Vice President Dick Cheney 
highlighted the importance of the Japan-US alliance, possibly 
because the bilateral alliance is faced with difficulties. 
 
In his meeting with Cheney, Abe described the Japan-US alliance as 
irreplaceable for the world and Asia. Cheney reaffirmed America's 
unwavering commitment to the alliance with Japan. 
 
A functional alliance takes ceaseless efforts by the two sides. 
 
This applies to the latest six-party agreement aimed at North 
 
TOKYO 00000784  003 OF 010 
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 02//07 
 
Korea's nuclear dismantlement and the abduction issue. 
 
Some take the view that the United States has softened its stance 
toward North Korea and effectively accepted direct dialogue with 
that country. 
 
Although North Korea does not possess any missiles capable of 
landing in the continental United States, its Rodong missiles target 
Japan. There is a huge gap in perceptions of a North Korean nuclear 
threat between Japan and the United States. The United States is 
busy dealing with the Iraq quagmire. 
 
In Japan, there is skepticism about the United States' commitment to 
convince North Korea to dismantle its nuclear weapons and programs. 
 
Abe and Cheney confirmed that close cooperation between Japan and 
the United States is extremely important. The two countries must 
realize the complete abolition of Pyongyang's nuclear programs. 
 
The six-party agreement stipulates that the United States will begin 
work to remove North Korea from its list of state sponsors of 
terror. 
 
Developing nuclear weapons and missiles and abducting foreign 
nationals are typical acts of state-sponsored terrorism. 
 
Removing North Korea from the US list of nations sponsoring 
terrorism is tantamount to leaving Japan behind. 
 
We assume that Cheney referred to the abduction issue as a common 
cause of Japan and the United States with such apprehension in 
mind. 
 
Although Cheney expressed his gratitude for the Air Self-Defense 
Force's assistance in Iraq, he did not meet Defense Minister Fumio 
Kyuma, which was absurd. 
 
Kyuma described Washington's decision to launch the Iraq war as a 
mistake. He also said, "The United States must not make high-handed 
remarks about the relocation of Futenma Air Station." 
 
Cheney's decision not to see Kyuma apparently reflected Washington's 
displeasure. 
 
The Japan-US alliance is vital. Kyuma must watch his tongue so as 
not to undermine the nation's interests. 
 
Abe and Cheney also confirmed the need for Japan-US alliance-based 
responses to the rapidly changing situation in East Asia. The 
alliance must be enhanced further. 
 
(3) Consul General Maher meets deputy governor for exchange of views 
on Futenma, etc.; Confirms prefecture's stance based on assembly 
replies 
 
RYUKYU SHIMPO 
Evening, February 22 
 
US Consul General for Okinawa Kevin Maher this morning called on 
Vice Governor of Okinawa Prefecture Zenki Nakazato at the 
prefectural building. In their exchange of views, Maher asked 
Nakazato about the prefecture's thinking, centered on the governor's 
replies during the prefectural assembly session that opened Feb. 21 
 
TOKYO 00000784  004 OF 010 
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 02//07 
 
about Futenma Air Station's relocation and other issues. It is 
unusual for a local representative of a foreign government to ask to 
meet a senior prefectural official when the prefectural assembly is 
in session. 
 
After the meeting, Nakazato noted: "We exchanged views on the 
current situation. He wanted to ask such questions as what issues 
would be in the spotlight in the assembly, and what was the 
prefectures' thinking in facing the assembly." Nakazato revealed he 
had informed Maher that questions have been raised about the Futenma 
relocation issue and that he had conveyed the prefecture's thinking 
regarding the planned return of bases as part of the realignment of 
US forces in Japan. 
 
Nakazato stressed that the prefectural government's perception of an 
early relocation of the Futenma airfield is consistent with those of 
the Japanese and US governments. The vice governor added that he had 
expressed his regret over the issue of the US military's paint 
balls, which had been found at a northern Okinawa dam. 
 
According to a senior prefectural official, the request for the 
meeting with Nakazato came from the consulate general on Feb. 21. 
The official said: "I assume that the United States wants to know 
what's going on behind the scenes. I think that means that the 
United States is paying attention (to Okinawa's posture)." After the 
meeting with Nakazato, Maher simply said: "We exchanged views on a 
variety of matters." 
 
(4) Interview with former Defense Agency Director General Shigeru 
Ishiba on North Korea 
 
YOMIURI (Page 4) (Full 
February 23, 2007 
 
Maintaining the framework of the six-party talks on North Korea's 
nuclear programs is significant. In the latest six-party talks, an 
agreement was reached. But Japan is not totally happy with it 
because it stopped short of ensuring that North Korea will eliminate 
its nuclear and missile threats. Nevertheless, it is better than an 
embattled North Korea getting out of control. I can give a positive 
assessment to the fact that the six-party talks were able to 
maintain the framework of multilateral talks with North Korea. 
 
North Korea has gone nuclear based on its own unique national 
strategy, so there is no reason for it to easily abandon its nuclear 
weapons and programs. The Japanese government, too, must come up 
with long-term plans and a national strategy for settling the 
issue. 
 
In my view, settling the North Korean issue will take at least 10 
years. Busy dealing with issues in Middle Eastern countries, such as 
Iraq and Iran, the United States' attention to North Korea is 
limited and it cannot afford to take military action against the 
North. 
 
Given the situation, it would be one approach for the four six-party 
members excluding Japan to extend massive energy and food aid to 
North Korea to prompt it to open up its heart to the international 
community to change its system. 
 
At the same time, Japan needs to make preparations against terrorist 
and nuclear attacks. We can learn much from Sweden, a country with 
legislation requiring its people to install shelters and conduct 
 
TOKYO 00000784  005 OF 010 
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 02//07 
 
evacuation drills. 
 
Above all, it is important to enhance a relationship of trust with 
the United States. Japan is counting on the United States in dealing 
with North Korea. Lawmakers of such a country must not criticize 
Washington's decision to launch the Iraq war as a mistake. I would 
like to see the terms of the Iraq Reconstruction Law and the 
Antiterrorism Special Measures Law extended and US forces in Japan, 
including Futenma Air Station in Okinawa, realigned, as was agreed 
upon with the United States. 
 
(5) Defense Ministry considering setting up PKO center 
 
SANKEI (Page 1) (Full) 
February 23, 2007 
 
In order to smoothly implement the Self-Defense Forces' (SDF) 
participation in such overseas missions as the United Nations 
peacekeeping operations, the Defense Ministry has launched 
full-scale coordination to establish an International Peace 
Cooperation Operation Center (also called the PKO Center), which 
would conduct training, academic research and public relations 
activities. The ministry has decided to set up the PKO Center since 
the SDF's international peace cooperation activities (overseas 
missions) have become primary duties as the SDF Law was revised, 
following the upgrading of the status of the Defense Agency to a 
ministry. The ministry aims to include research expenses in a budget 
for fiscal 2008. It intends to work out details, including where the 
PKO Center should be set up, by the summer. 
 
The Ground Self-Defense Force (GSDF) plans to set up an 
international activities education unit, which would be in charge of 
education and training for overseas missions and which would come 
under the Central Readiness Command, which will be established in 
March. The ministry has decided to set up the PKO Center from the 
viewpoint that only GSDF personnel will be allowed to participate in 
the education unit and that it is necessary to create a 
comprehensive training facility jointly operated by the GSDF, the 
Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) and the Air Self-Defense Force 
(ASDF) in order to immediately respond to requests from the 
international community. 
 
The PKO Center will also provide information about the international 
situation and language training to promote overseas missions by the 
GSDF, MSDF and ASDF in cooperation with the education unit. 
 
A senior Defense Ministry official said: "We want to enhance 
academic research and educational activities." So the ministry 
intends to use the PKO Center as a research base for peace-building 
by receiving trainees from other countries. 
 
The PKO Center will take charge of PR activities regarding the SDF's 
overseas missions. At present, ASDF troops are carrying out a 
mission for Iraq, MSDF troops in the Indian Ocean, and a PKO unit 
made up of mainly GSDF personnel participating in the UN 
Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) on the Golan Heights. However, 
the significance of the SDF's overseas missions and how they carry 
them out are not known, so the PKO center will conduct PR 
activities. 
 
The Defense Ministry intends to bring its idea into being, referring 
to Canada's internationally recognized Pearson Peacekeeping Center, 
which provides research, education and training regarding 
 
TOKYO 00000784  006 OF 010 
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 02//07 
 
ceasefire-monitoring operations. 
 
In 2002, the International Peace Cooperation Council, a private 
advisory organ to then Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda, 
proposed that the government and private sector jointly create a 
system to cultivate human resources. Following the proposal, the 
government once looked into the possibility of setting up a similar 
PKO center. However, the government was unable to coordinate views, 
since the issue related to the Defense Agency, the Cabinet Office 
and the National Police Agency, and as a result, it failed to 
establish a PKO center. 
 
(6) Examining the Abe administration (Part 2): Keeping appropriate 
distance from Kasumigaseki essential 
 
YOMIURI (Page 4) (Abridged) 
February 22, 2007 
 
In late January, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki raised 
his voice to Health, Labor, and Welfare Vice Minister Tetsuo Tsuji, 
who expressed reluctance to establish a special system to provide 
subsidies to repatriated war-displaced Japanese in China. A decision 
by the Tokyo District Court on a class-action suit filed by a group 
of Japanese orphans left behind in China seeking compensation was 
only days away. 
 
In many cases, cash-strapped Japanese orphans are forced onto 
welfare once they return to Japan. Shiozaki undertook coordination 
at the order of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who said: "This is a 
matter that concerns human dignity. It must not be put in the 
framework of welfare." But the Welfare Ministry raised objections, 
saying: "They are not the only ones who are in dire situations 
because of the war. The legal welfare system would collapse if a 
special case was established." 
 
To reject the ministry's argument, Shiozaki said in the end: "Why 
don't you put your opinion on paper and convince the prime 
minister?" 
 
Immediately after the Tokyo District Court handed down a decision 
against the plaintiffs on Jan. 30, Abe ordered Welfare Minister 
Hakuo Yanagisawa to consider relief measures for the war-displaced. 
The ministry subsequently announced a plan to come up with specific 
measures by summer. 
 
Ever since its inauguration last fall, the Abe cabinet has been 
enamored with the idea of decision-making under the leadership of 
the Kantei (Prime Minister's Official Residence). Abe specifically 
eyes a system to coordinate and determine government policies in 
line with the prime minister's wishes by destroying the conventional 
sectionalism-oriented decision making system. 
 
Before the Lower House Budget Committee on Feb. 14, Abe said: "In 
reality, I think government agencies forced private firms closely 
linked to them to offer lucrative jobs to retiring officials. We are 
planning an investigation." Abe's comment conflicted with the 
government's view denying such a practice. 
 
Abe's reply was also aimed at a Kantei-led decision-making system. 
 
But some have begun pointing out the possibility of the Abe 
cabinet's obsession with a Kantei-led system taking a toll on smooth 
policy coordination. 
 
TOKYO 00000784  007 OF 010 
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 02//07 
 
 
Secretary Yoshiyuki Inoue, who is responsible for coordinating the 
 
SIPDIS 
prime minister's schedule, has been strictly restricting senior 
officials' access to the prime minister. The aim was to prevent 
bureaucrats from pushing ahead with policies to suit their 
convenience by trumpeting the prime minister's seal of approval. 
 
A Yomiuri survey found that Prime Minister Abe has individually met 
the vice ministers of only five ministries: the Foreign Ministry (18 
times); the Finance Ministry (six times); the Defense Ministry (four 
times); the Economy, Trade and Industry Ministry (one time); and the 
Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry (one time). 
 
Government officials are increasingly irritated with the low level 
of communication with the prime minister, as seen in a senior 
Internal Affairs and Communications Ministry official's complaint: 
"Information doesn't reach the prime minister. We don't know how the 
prime minister is getting information or what he is thinking 
about." 
 
Some ascribe the cabinet's poor policy coordination to Shiozaki, who 
is now solely responsible for receiving reports from all government 
agencies and has a hand in determining priority policies. 
 
Known as a micromanager in the Kasumigaseki bureaucratic district, 
Shiozaki assembles government officials even on holidays to draw up 
policies with them. 
 
"There are limits to what one individual can accomplish. Mr. 
Shiozaki works so hard and so long that he does not have the time to 
perform his main duty of doing the spadework in the government and 
the ruling coalition," a Kantei staffer noted. 
 
Unless the mental distance from Kasumigaseki is reviewed, the Abe 
administration eying a Kantei-led system might stumble along the 
way. 
 
(7) Government, opposition parties engage in heated debate over 
social disparity, each side presenting own data 
 
MAINICHI (Page 2) (Full) 
February 22, 2007 
 
The issue of social disparity has taken center stage in debate in 
the current Diet session. The government and the ruling camp have 
engaged in heated debate on the issue by presenting data as evidence 
to support their respective argument. The government insists that 
the social disparity issue should be redressed by means of economic 
growth, while the opposition side asserts that economic growth alone 
is insufficient to narrow the income gap. In a public hearing at the 
House of Representatives Budget Committee yesterday, too, no 
agreement was reached on this issue among experts. It seems 
difficult for both sides to find common ground. There might be no 
other means but for the voters to make a judgment in casting their 
ballots, based on hearing both sides' views. 
 
According to the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, the number 
of welfare recipient households, which was 630,000 in fiscal 1997, 
topped the one million household mark for the first time in fiscal 
ΒΆ2005. In November 2006, the number climbed to 1.08 million 
households. 
 
According to a survey of households of two members or more conducted 
 
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by the banking public relations central committee (with Secretariat 
in the Bank of Japan), those who replied they had no savings 
accounted for 10.2% in 1997, but this figure doubled in 2003 under 
the Koizumi administration. In the 2004 - 2006 period, the 
percentage reached the 22% level. 
 
Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan) lawmaker Naoto Kan criticized 
the prime minister's lack of awareness of the social inequality 
problem, saying, "I want you to take careful note of the fact." In 
response, Prime Minister Abe displayed an indicator showing 
improvement in the job market. The unemployment rate dropped from 
the 5% level marked from 2001 to 2003 to 4.1% in 2006. The number of 
regular workers inched up to 34.08 million on average in the July - 
September period in 2006, marking the third consecutive quarterly 
rise. 
 
Even so, the rate of regular employees to total workers, which 
exceeded three-fourths in 1997, has decreased to about two-thirds, 
and instead, irregular workers have increased. 
 
In a public hearing, Rengo (Japanese Trade Union Confederation) 
Deputy Chief of Secretariat Naoto Omi stated, "As a result of 
companies promoting the replacement of employment status as 
cost-cutting measures, the income disparity is widening." Keio 
University Professor Haruo Shimada defended the government's growth 
strategy, remarking, "Reform and growth are indisputably the proper 
path the government should take to rectify the existing disparity." 
 
Regarding international comparison on income disparity, the 
government and opposition parties picked statistics that help to 
support their respective assertions from a report released in 2005 
by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development 
(OECD). 
 
Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan) President Ozawa picked a list 
of relative percentages of those who earn less than half the average 
income level. According to this list, Japan ranked 5th among 27 
countries, with a 15.3%  percentage and far over the average 
percentage (10.4% ) of the OECD members. Among the G-7 nations, 
Japan comes in second, following the US. In a public hearing 
yesterday, Rengo Omi commented, "Poverty is apparently increasing 
even seen from an international point of view." 
 
Chief Cabinet Secretary Shiozaki offered a counterargument with the 
Gini coefficient, a measure of income inequality defined as a ratio 
with values between O and 1. For instance, 0 corresponds to perfect 
income equality. Japan is 10th among 27 countries, with 0.31. Among 
the G-7 countries, Japan's figure is lower than those of the US, 
Italy, and Britain. 
 
Even so, the trend of expanding income disparity is also seen from 
government statistics. The 2006 Economic and Fiscal Policy White 
Paper worked out Cabinet Office pointed out that the income 
disparity has expanded among the same age bracket, according to the 
Gini coefficient worked out by age brackets based on labor income. 
In a meeting of the Lower House Budget Committee meeting on Feb. 13, 
Prime Minister Abe had to admit the widening of the income 
disparity, saying, "It has been shown that the income inequality is 
expanding among people in their 20s and 30s." 
 
(8) Idea of democratization in China might be an illusion 
 
ASAHI (Page 15) (Excerpts) 
 
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February 22, 2007 
 
Yoichi Kato, American Affairs Bureau director 
 
"Although the Chinese economy is growing, its political system is 
unlikely to undergo democratization." James Mann, a former Los 
Angeles Times correspondent well versed in Chinese affairs, made the 
above statement in the book The China Fantasy, which he authored and 
issued last week. 
 
In a public hearing in the US Congress early this month, Mann said, 
"US policy toward China is based on wrong views." This remark drew 
much attention. 
 
According to Mann, the US has come up with two scenarios regarding 
the future of China: that democracy will take root in China or that 
China will break apart. Mann calls his own view "a third scenario," 
adding that few have spoken of this "third scenario." 
 
Many people in the US believe that the first scenario will come 
true, citing these reasons: (1) China is now under the control of 
the Communist Party; (2) a middle class has been created in China; 
and (3) the Communist Party will have to give in to pressure from 
those in the middle class after both forces clash. 
 
Mann, though, deems the first scenario a "fantasy" on the grounds 
that because middle-class people in cities are still a minority in 
Chinese society, farmers are likely to take the initiative in 
running the state should a democratic election be held. 
 
This kind of view itself is not new, according to a China expert in 
Washington. In actuality, the book If China Is Not Democratized was 
already published in 2001. This expert regards as fresh Mann's call 
for policy debate out of the judgment that democratization is 
unlikely to make progress in China. 
 
When I met Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian in Taiwan early this 
month, I asked for his view about the possibility of democratization 
in China. He replied: "There are both positive and negative views. I 
believe that China will continue to grow only if it moves toward 
democratization." 
 
The Second Armitage Report, worked out by a panel of bipartisan 
Asian experts and released in Washington last week, is also based on 
the premise that "commitment" or "integration" policy with the aim 
of promoting democratization is applicable in mapping out a strategy 
toward China. 
 
Will China's political system be changed into a democratic one in 
which the presence of opposition parties is allowed? Even experts 
have not found the answer to this question yet. The US hopes to 
change the direction China is going to head in and the Bush 
administration's policy by improving the environment surrounding 
China. 
 
According to Mann, the main problem behind the integration policy is 
that "you never know whether the US has drawn China into the 
international economic order or China has drawn the US into the 
international political order in disregard of democracy." 
 
Mann, though, notes that he has "no answer" to the question of how 
the administration's current policy should be changed. This point is 
indisputably what has come under fire from experts. 
 
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In Washington, the Iraq war has taken center stage in policy debate. 
But with an eye on the presidential election in 2008, experts on 
foreign policy have turned to Asia, as represented by the Second 
Armitage Report and the establishment of a new think-tank to compile 
a comprehensive Asia policy under the lead of former Deputy 
Assistant Secretary of Defense Campbell. 
 
However, US major newspapers, including the New York Times and the 
Washington Post, have not reported on the Armitage Report and Mann's 
new book at all. It is interesting to see what effect the stir 
created by Mann will have on the Bush administration's policy toward 
China and Asia. Regardless, interest in Asia policy is unlikely to 
grow in the US for a while. 
 
DONOVAN