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Viewing cable 07TALLINN88, ESTONIAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS I: POLITICAL

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07TALLINN88 2007-02-12 13:13 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Tallinn
VZCZCXRO4839
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHTL #0088/01 0431313
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 121313Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY TALLINN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9506
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TALLINN 000088 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EN
SUBJECT: ESTONIAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS I: POLITICAL 
PARTIES PRIMER 
 
REF: TALLINN 79 
 
1. (U) Summary: Estonia is in full campaign mode in 
the run up to parliamentary elections on March 4. 
Eleven parties are vying for seats in the Riigikogu 
(the Estonian parliament).  Of these, five or six are 
expected to win enough votes for parliamentary 
representation.   The "X-factors" in the election are 
the emergence of a new Greens party and the thousands 
of new Russian-speaking citizens eligible to vote this 
time around.  As the first part of our election 
coverage, this cable provides a brief summary of the 
election process and background on each major 
political party.  End Summary. 
 
Election Procedures 
------------------- 
 
2. (U) The 101 seats in Parliament will be allocated 
through an extremely complicated system based on the 
principle of proportionality.  Essentially, seats are 
dealt first based on individual vote totals, and then 
to parties which have received at least 5% of the 
total votes cast.  Following tradition, President 
Toomas Hendrik Ilves has affirmed that he will give 
the party which wins the most seats the first 
opportunity to form a coalition government.  (Note: 
He is not required to do this by law.  End Note.) Of 
the eleven parties running, we expect five or six will 
be represented in the next parliament. 
 
The Coalition Government Parties: 
--------------------------------- 
 
The Estonian Reform Party 
 
3. (U) The Reform Party is a neo-liberal and free 
market party led by Prime Minister Andrus Ansip. 
Reform has four other ministerial posts in the cabinet 
(Foreign Affairs, Defense, Justice, and Population) 
and won 19 seats in the 2003 elections. (Note:  since 
2003, defections from other parties have given Reform 
an additional four votes in the Parliament.  End 
note.)  Reform staunchly supports strong trans- 
Atlantic ties, bilaterally with the United States and 
through NATO.  PM Ansip and other prominent Reform 
politicians have consistently expressed their support 
for Estonia's troops in Iraq and Afghanistan.  While 
cautious, Reform has generally shown a pragmatic side 
in its dealings with Russia, especially in regards to 
improving cooperation on trade, transport 
infrastructure, and law enforcement. 
 
4. (U) Based on its performance in the 2005 local 
elections and recent polling data, Reform is expected 
to become the biggest center-right party in 
parliament.  Reform's campaign touts Estonia's strong 
economic growth (almost 12% GDP growth last year), 
commits to continue income tax rate reductions, and 
pledges not to establish a tax on reinvested corporate 
profits.  Reform is also reaching beyond its 
traditional base by promising to implement policies 
which support working mothers and promote higher 
national salaries.  Reform is projected to spend $1.65 
million on its campaign.  Most estimates indicate the 
party will win 25 to 30 seats.   Reform is competing 
with the Center Party for the most seats in 
parliament.  Ansip and Foreign Minister Urmas Paet 
hold the first two spots on Reform's list of 
candidates.  Also in the top ten are Defense Minister 
Jurgen Ligi and Tartu Mayor Laine Janes. 
 
The Center Party: 
 
5. (U) The Estonian Center Party is a populist, 
center-left party led by Minister for Economy Edgar 
Savisaar.  Center has over 10,000 members, holds four 
other ministerial posts in the cabinet (Social 
Affairs, Education, Interior, and Culture), and has 28 
seats in parliament.  (Note: since that election, 
eight MPs have left the party and one has joined, 
giving Center a net 21 seats.  End note.) Officially, 
Center is a socially liberal party, but its campaign 
promises demonstrate a largely populist bent. Its 
political base is primarily pensioners, the working 
class, and Russian-speaking voters.  Center maintains 
the largest and most formidable political machinery in 
the country, which is particularly effective in 
outreach to Russian-speaking communities. 
 
6. (SBU) Center will spend close to $1.7 million on 
 
TALLINN 00000088  002 OF 003 
 
 
its election campaign.  The party has prioritized 
raising the minimum wage, increasing retirement 
contributions and fees, improving and expanding social 
services to children and young families, and replacing 
the current flat tax with a progressive tax.  Center 
Party has a formal cooperative relationship with the 
United Russia party and party leaders have tended to 
be more conciliatory on divisive issues between ethnic 
Estonians and Russian speakers (reftel). Most 
estimates indicate Center will win somewhere between 
25-30 seats in the elections.  Savisaar tops Center's 
list of candidates.  Others in the top ten include 
Chairman of the Parliament Toomas Varek, Minister of 
Education Mailis Reps, Head of the Northern Tallinn 
Administration (and Savisaar's wife) Vilja Savisaar, 
and Tallinn Mayor Juri Ratas. 
 
The People's Union Party: 
 
7. (U) The People's Union party is an agrarian party 
represented by former Kolhoz (farm collectives), ex- 
Communist party officials, and large-scale farmers. 
It is led by former Environment Minister Villu Reiljan 
and currently holds three ministerial posts in the 
cabinet (Environment, Agriculture, and Regional 
Affairs) and has 14 seats in parliament.  People's 
Union's devotes little time to foreign policy matters, 
although the party has been skeptical of Estonia's 
involvement in foreign military operations in general. 
During last December's Iraq Mandate renewal debates in 
the parliament, People's Union MPs were among the most 
vocal critics of Estonia's presence in Iraq. 
 
8. (U) Recent polls suggest People's Union may 
struggle to receive enough votes to win any seats in 
parliament.  However these polls tend to under- 
represent rural voters, and most politicians with whom 
we have spoken expect People's Union to be represented 
in the new parliament, albeit with fewer seats than in 
at present.  People's Union's campaign targets the 
have-nots in the booming economy with a slogan, "Equal 
opportunity for all."  The party plans to spend 
$800,000 on the campaign.  The People's Union election 
list includes Villu Reiljan, Minister of Agriculture 
Ester Tuiksoo, Minister of Regional Affairs Jaan 
Ounapuu, and MP and faction leader Jaanus Maanik. 
 
The Opposition Parties: 
----------------------- 
 
Pro Patria-Res Publica Union: 
 
9. (U) The Pro Patria and Res Publica Union (IRL) was 
founded in June 2006 from the merger of two opposition 
center-right parties.  Both are neo-liberal, free 
market parties.  However Pro Patria, one of Estonia's 
oldest parties, is better known for its nationalist 
positions. Res Publica was established only in 
December 2001 as a "protest party." The IRL has a 
combined total of 35 seats in the Riigikogu. (Note: 
Since 2003, three MPs have left the IRL, leaving it 
with 32 seats in Parliament.  End Note.) 
 
10. (SBU) As a center-right party, the IRL is 
competing directly with Reform for seats in 
parliament.  The IRL is campaigning on values -- with 
particular attention to social issues (e.g., health 
care, education, and declining demographics).  Like 
Reform, the IRL is a strong supporter of the EU, NATO, 
and the United States.  The IRL traditionally has a 
more "hawkish" attitude towards Russia, although this 
has not been a focus of this year's campaign.  While 
Pro Patria's support has been steady since 2003, Res 
Publica's popularity has plummeted.  According to 
polls, the IRL will likely get fewer seats than the 
two parties currently hold.  The party plans to spend 
around $1.5 million on its campaign.  Most estimates 
indicate IRL will win 15-20 seats.  Mart Laar sits at 
the top of IRL's candidate list as its candidate for 
Prime Minister.  Others in the top ten include: 
former Tartu University Rector Jaak Aaviksoo, former 
PM Juhan Parts, Deputy Speaker Ene Ergma, and former 
Chief of Defense Forces Tarmo Kouts. 
 
The Social Democrats: 
 
11. (U) The Social Democratic (SDE) Party is a center- 
left party led by MP Ivari Padar.  The SDE has six 
seats in parliament and three seats in the European 
Parliament.  (Note:  Since 2003, defections from 
Center have given the SDE three additional seats in 
 
TALLINN 00000088  003 OF 003 
 
 
Parliament.  End Note.)  The SDE's former leader, 
Toomas Hendrik Ilves, was elected President in 
September 2006 (and so officially resigned from the 
party).  The SDE is campaigning on expanding social 
services, particularly for young families and working 
mothers.  The party's support comes mainly from 
professional, educated, and urban Estonians.  The 
SDE's foreign policy is pro-EU and NATO.  While 
supportive of Estonia's soldiers in Afghanistan, the 
SDE remains deeply divided over Iraq. 
 
12. (U) With Ilves as President and its other more 
prominent members serving in the European Parliament, 
the SDE's electoral prospects rest on lesser-known 
members.  The SDE's campaign budget of $500,000 is the 
smallest of the five main parties.  Most estimates 
suggest the SDE will get between 10-15 seats.  The 
SDE's party list includes Party Chairman Ivari Padar, 
MP and former Defense Minister Sven Mikser, Member of 
the European Parliament Katrin Saks, MP and former 
Deputy Speaker Peter Kreitzberg, and MP Eiki Nestor. 
 
The Cinderella Party? 
--------------------- 
 
13. (U) The Estonian Greens were established in 
November 2006 and are fielding 101 candidates in the 
elections.  The most well-known member is Party 
Chairman Marek Strandberg.  The Greens' platform 
includes protection of Estonia's natural resources, 
combating climate change, innovation in alternative 
energy, promotion of direct democracy, and 
conservative fiscal policies.  The Greens have been 
polling well since announcing they would participate 
in the elections.  However, a February poll indicating 
11% support, surprised most election watchers.  People 
speculate that the Greens may attract some of the 
"protest vote" that went to Res Publica in 2003. 
 
 
The Best of the Rest 
-------------------- 
 
14. (U) Of the five minor parties running in the 
election, the most interesting is the Constitution 
Party (CP), which represents Russian-speaking voters. 
The CP is the successor of the Estonian United 
People's Party (EUPP), which held six seats in the 
parliament in 1999-2003.  The party is competing 
directly with Center for the votes of Russian-speaking 
Estonians -- a battle the EUPP lost in 2003 when it 
only got 2.2% of the vote.  CP leader, Andrey 
Zarenkov, is campaigning aggressively -- complaining 
about a revival of Nazism in Estonia and Estonian 
language requirements. However, few people believe the 
CP will win enough votes away from Center to get any 
seats in parliament. 
 
GOLDSTEIN