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Viewing cable 07PHNOMPENH240, THE FIGHT FOR THIRD PLACE IN CAMBODIA'S APRIL
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| Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07PHNOMPENH240 | 2007-02-12 06:12 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Phnom Penh |
VZCZCXRO4424
OO RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH
DE RUEHPF #0240/01 0430612
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 120612Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY PHNOM PENH
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8001
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 PHNOM PENH 000240
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE FOR EAP/MLS, DRL
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM CB
SUBJECT: THE FIGHT FOR THIRD PLACE IN CAMBODIA'S APRIL
COMMUNE ELECTIONS
¶1. (SBU) Summary. Recent discussions with NGOs and
political party members suggest that the real race for the
April 1 commune council elections will be between FUNCINPEC
and the NRP of Prince Norodom Ranariddh probably competing
for third place. As the clear front-runner, the ruling CPP
continues to dominate media coverage of the upcoming
elections, and CPP officials are reportedly spending every
weekend campaigning for CPP commune candidates, providing
money and gifts to voters as well as ensuring that
infrastructure needs of the community are addressed. The
opposition Sam Rainsy Party (SRP) is working on expanding its
base of communes under SRP control, and hopes to come in a
respectable second in the elections. Prince Ranariddh,
however, is not expected to return to Cambodia in the near
term due to pending lawsuits. The most interesting raise is
between FUNCINPEC (aligned with Hun Sen) and the new party
formed by Prince Norodom Ranariddh following his ouster from
FUNCINPEC. The fact that Ranariddh is not expected to return
anytime soon may handicap that race. All parties agree that
the April 1 results will set the stage for the 2008 election
campaign. A UNDP election consultant's recent report details
the shortcomings of the National Election Commission (NEC)
and the electoral process in Cambodia. End Summary.
No Contest on April 1, Save for Third Place
-------------------------------------------
¶2. (U) A series of meetings with Norodom Ranariddh Party
(NRP) and Sam Rainsy Party officials, members of the
Cambodian People's Party (CPP), and NGO representatives
working on elections, revealed that the ruling CPP's hold on
the majority of the nation's 1,621 communes will continue on
April 1. On that date, the country will vote for the second
time for commune council representatives. Commune councils
are the lowest government body recognized by the Cambodian
Constitution, with 11,261 seats for the country's 24
provinces. The CPP dominated the first commune council
elections in 2002, winning a total of 7,695 seats and taking
the commune chief position (i.e., dominating the vote in a
commune) in 1,597 communes out of 1,621 total communes.
FUNCINPEC came in second, with 2,211 seats and winning 10
communes. The SRP took third place, with 1,345 commune seats
and a dominant position in 13 communes. (Note: These
figures omit one commune in Banteay Meanchey province where
the SRP victory was contested by the CPP, and an awkward
power-sharing arrangement has remained in effect. End Note.)
¶3. (SBU) This time, all non-CPP parties acknowledge that
the CPP will win; the question is by how wide a margin. Even
CPP stalwarts assess that vote buying may not be enough
during upcoming elections; voters demand infrastructure
projects, wells, and roads -- if they are not satisfied, the
CPP runs the risk of people taking the money/gifts but voting
for another party. One CPP central committee member
complained that he and other senior RGC officials have been
spending each weekend since November 2006 in the provinces
drumming up support for CPP candidates. This same member
acknowledged that lower ranking CPP officials must deliver
their districts in order to keep their jobs; this official
said he will not lose his job but must develop an electoral
constituency if he is to advance within the party. While he
dislikes the required campaign work and the associated outlay
of cash or projects he is required to supply, he knows that
his future within the CPP depends on his electoral work. At
the same time, he noted that it was good the CPP was not
complacent about the elections; the party leadership is
taking very seriously constituency concerns to ensure
registered CPP voters turn out for the CPP on April 1.
People within the party are asking questions of local
authorities and expecting accountability, he added, which is
making the CPP a more democratic party.
¶4. (SBU) SRP officials say that they are prepared for a CPP
victory, but their aim is to expand the SRP's current base of
control within the commune councils. In 2002, they won 13
communes, but in the national elections in 2003, the SRP won
enough seats in the National Assembly to represent majority
control in roughly 140 communes -- particularly those in
urban areas. SRP Secretary General Mu Sochua said that the
SRP's goal for the 2007 elections is to consolidate their
hold on those communes, and possibly expand control to as
many as 300 communes-- i.e, to double their base. The party
has worked hard to identify the best candidates to run, and
in some cases, they have dropped non-performing SRP commune
council incumbents. Sochua described a situation in Poipet
where their commune chief had grown unpopular, so the party
polled local citizens who identified a local physician as the
best candidate; the SRP enlisted him as their candidate.
Sochua noted that the CPP does a similar exercise, but the
PHNOM PENH 00000240 002 OF 004
ruling party only asks citizens to name the best candidate
from a CPP-provided list; the SRP takes a more open-ended
approach and tries to identify the person whose name appeals
to the widest swath of voters. (Note: Separate
conversations with CPP officials indicate that Mu Sochua's
outline of CPP candidate selection procedures is accurate;
one CPP Senator noted that CPP provincial leadership approves
the final choices. End Note.) SRP also wants to take the
deputy commune chief position in every commune where they do
not come in first, in order to solidify their position as the
leading second party in Cambodian politics.
¶5. (SBU) The NRP is confident they will take third place
and embarrass FUNCINPEC and the CPP in the process. Even
without Ranariddh's presence in Cambodia and no party
organizational structure (two Ranariddh advisors noted that
they have 35 people running the party and the rest are
candidates and supporters at the grassroots level -- there is
no provincial party structure in between), Ranariddh
loyalists claim that the royalist voters associate NRP
candidates with the royal family and former King Sihanouk's
legacy -- and that is going to mean a third-place victory for
the NRP, they say. Despite press reports to the contrary,
Ranariddh's office in Phnom Penh says that negotiations
between the CPP and Ranariddh that would eliminate the legal
problems facing the Prince are continuing. The ability of
the NRP to gather so many defectors from the ranks of
FUNCINPEC commune councilors is proof that FUNCINPEC rank and
file will not support FUNCINPEC at the polls and do not view
FUNCINPEC as the standard bearer of the monarchy, say
Ranariddh's people. The CPP's continual claim that FUNCINPEC
will remain a coalition partner of the CPP in a future
government also serves to discredit FUNCINPEC, as the voters
see a vote for FUNCINPEC as a vote for the CPP -- so perceive
that they might as well vote for the CPP, according to the
NRP. In effect, the CPP is destroying FUNCINPEC, and will
either try to cut a deal with Prince Ranariddh to keep the
opposition split, or eliminate royal family members from
participating in politics -- a topic that continues to be
raised by the CPP. In that event, say Ranariddh loyalists,
the Prince will renounce his title, just as the former King
did. NRP members point to their ability to register NRP
party lists in the majority of communes in a relatively short
period of time as an indication of the degree of NRP support
among grassroots FUNCINPEC members.
COMFREL: Improvements Since 2002; Difficulties Remain
--------------------------------------------- ---------
¶6. (SBU) In a meeting with Koul Panha, director of the
Committee for Free and Fair Elections in Cambodia (COMFREL),
Panha described for Pol/Econ Chief the differences between
the 2002 elections and the lead up to the April 1, 2007
elections. On a technical level, NEC has brought
improvements to the electoral system, said Panha. Two SRP
appointees have been added to the NEC and there was broader
recruitment of Provincial Electoral Committee (PEC) and
Commune Electoral Committee (CEC) members, said the COMFREL
official. The number of registered voters increased and the
NEC deserves credit for that, added Panha. The NEC remains a
strongly partisan organization dominated by the CPP, as are
the PECs and CECs where over 70 pecent of the members are
with the ruling party, but it's better than 2002, Panha
allowed. Registration of party candidate lists has been
smoother this time, Panha added, as the 2002 legal framework
made it easy to reject lists of candidates over a single
problem; that has been eliminated this time. The NEC has
also dispensed with the "NGO Coordinating Committee," which
Panha said was actually an impediment to NGO participation in
the electoral process. Now, NGOs can work directly with the
NEC and cooperation has improved, he said.
¶7. (SBU) The mechanism for resolving election-related
complaints has not improved, however, affirmed Panha, and is
obviously skewed against non-ruling parties. The NEC's plan
for the provision of voter information slips was a good idea
in theory, but the implementation through the largely
CPP-affiliated village chiefs was a failure. During the 2002
and 2003 elections, added Panha, each party did its own voter
information checks.
¶8. (SBU) There has been an overall improvement in the
electoral environment with less overt violence so far, said
Panha, but while physical attacks have decreased, other forms
of intimidation have arisen. Family members are threatened
with physical violence or loss of jobs if their
relative/candidate is a threat to the CPP, said Panha, who
provided an example of a female SRP candidate whose husband
was told he would lose his military position if he could not
PHNOM PENH 00000240 003 OF 004
convince his spouse to withdraw. Vote buying and gift giving
by the CPP has increased this time, said Panha. Another
negative factor that has not changed since 2002 is the lack
of media access accorded to non-CPP candidates. Although the
official campaign period is only 15 days before the
elections, already the radio and television programs are
promoting CPP candidates while other parties are denied
access, according to COMFREL.
UNDP Report Cites Shortcomings, Areas for Improvement
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶9. (SBU) A UNDP consultant recently completed an assessment
of Cambodia's electoral system and made a number of
recommendations to address inherent problems in the conduct
of elections. The report identifies the NEC's affiliation
with the Ministry of Interior as problematic, and notes that
the body's independence remains in question. The report also
cited many of the shortcomings noted by COMFREL and other
NGOs; namely, the lack of a neutral electoral dispute
resolution body, the media dominance by the CPP, and the
overly complex and detailed regulations governing elections
(while even the most basic application of election laws is
not done equitably), lack of oversight of campaign finances,
and a number of other points. In a meeting with Pol/Econ
Chief, the consultant noted that while Cambodia's elections
may be technically adequate, they fall short of achieving
their Constitutional mandate of promoting true political
pluralism by virtue of the weaknesses outlined in the report.
He urged that future donor funding go towards rectifying the
inequities in the electoral system as a whole, and not focus
on the technical aspect of the elections.
USG Assistance to Elections
---------------------------
¶10. (U) USAID is supporting the National Democratic
Institute (NDI) and election monitoring NGOs COMFREL, NICFEC,
and the Youth Council of Cambodia (YCC) in a variety of
activities surrounding the elections on April 1. NDI will
print 45,000 copies of an election day manual for polling
agents; NDI also trained 240 political party representatives
from the CPP, SRP, FUNCINPEC, NRP to act as party monitoring
trainers for their respective parties; NDI will assist local
NGOs develop voter guides highlighting party issues; NDI will
organize 30 candidate debates in 10 provinces that will be
broadcast on Radio Free Asia; NDI has trained 36 female
representatives (12 each) from the CPP, SRP, and FUNCINPEC to
improve the communication skills of women candidates.
COMFREL and NICFEC have worked with field monitors in
election coverage both before and after election day, and
NICFEC has produced 120 commune-based theater performances to
educate the populace on good governance and women as leaders.
USAID has funded the International Republican Institute
(IRI) to work with the YCC to encourage youth as poll
monitors.
Teachers as Electoral Workers
-----------------------------
¶11. (U) USAID has noted that during a January 2007
Education Joint Technical Working Group meeting of donors
highlighted UNESCO concerns that teachers had been recruited
as Commune and Provincial electoral officials for the CECs
and PECs. NEC policy states that only non-teaching education
staff may perform election-related functions, but reportedly
many teachers (who make an average of USD 30 per month) are
attracted to the higher salaries -- USD 80 for CECs and USD
200 for PECs. USAID education partners report noticeable
absences among teaching staff, and in Mondulkiri province,
roughly 30 percent of teachers are allegedly working as
electoral officials in some capacity. During a recent USAID
field visit to Kratie province where USG personnel met with
five local election officials, three of the five were school
officials who planned to be absent from their educational
duties for three months.
Comment
-------
¶12. (SBU) Some donors have evinced little interest in the
commune elections, characterizing them as "unimportant."
However, commune councilors select the members of the Senate
as well as the village chiefs, so have a stronger political
role beyond the local level. While it may be tempting to
overlook Cambodia's upcoming commune council elections as a
foregone conclusion before they are even held, no one party
appears to be taking the outcome for granted and all are
continuing to jockey to improve their positions. The CPP is
PHNOM PENH 00000240 004 OF 004
not giving into complacency but is looking to its candidates
to appeal to constituencies based on performance and services
delivered -- and is not relying on the standard gifts of
5,000 riel ($1.25) or a bag of sugar. The SRP is being
realistic and trying to secure the uncontested second
position; the NRP looks to come in a respectable third and
most observers (even some FUNCINPEC members) agree that is
likely. What everyone does agree on is that the April 1
results will be the starting point for the 2008 national
election campaign -- which is why human rights leader Kem
Sokha is waiting quietly to see how the parties fare before
making his decision whether to form a party to contest the
national elections next year. End Comment.
MUSSOMELI