Keep Us Strong WikiLeaks logo

Currently released so far... 97115 / 251,287

Articles

Browse latest releases

Browse by creation date

Browse by origin

A B C D F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Y Z

Browse by tag

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
ETRD EAGR ETTC EAID ECON EFIN ECIN EINV ELAB EAIR ENRG EPET EWWT ECPS EIND EMIN ELTN EC ETMIN EUC EZ ET ELECTIONS ENVR EU EUN EG EINT ER ECONOMICS ES EMS ENIV EEB EN ECE ECOSOC EK ENVIRONMENT EFIS EI EWT ENGRD ECPSN EXIM EIAD ERIN ECPC EDEV ENGY ECTRD EPA ESTH ECCT EINVECON ENGR ERTD EUR EAP EWWC ELTD EL EXIMOPIC EXTERNAL ETRDEC ESCAP ECO EGAD ELNT ECONOMIC ENV ETRN EIAR EUMEM ENRGPARMOTRASENVKGHGPGOVECONTSPLEAID EREL ECOM ECONETRDEAGRJA ETCC ETRG ECONOMY EMED ETR ENERG EITC EFINOECD EURM EENG ERA EXPORT ENRD ECONEINVETRDEFINELABETRDKTDBPGOVOPIC EGEN EBRD EVIN ETRAD ECOWAS EFTA ECONETRDBESPAR EGOVSY EPIN EID ECONENRG EDRC ESENV ETT EB ENER ELTNSNAR ECHEVARRIA ETRC EPIT EDUC ESA EFI ENRGY ESCI EE EAIDXMXAXBXFFR EETC ECIP EIAID EIVN EBEXP ESTN EING EGOV ETRA EPETEIND ELAN ETRDGK EAIDRW ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS EPEC ENVI ELN EAG EPCS EPRT EPTED ETRB EUM EAIDS EFIC EFINECONEAIDUNGAGM EAIDAR ESF EIDN ELAM EDU EV EAIDAF ECN EDA EXBS EINTECPS ENRGTRGYETRDBEXPBTIOSZ EPREL EAC EINVEFIN ETA EAGER EINDIR ECA ECLAC ELAP EITI EUCOM ECONEFINETRDPGOVEAGRPTERKTFNKCRMEAID EARG ELDIN EINVKSCA ENNP EFINECONCS EFINTS ECCP ETC EAIRASECCASCID EINN ETRP EAIDNI EFQ ECOQKPKO EGPHUM EBUD ECONEINVEFINPGOVIZ ENERGY ELB EINDETRD EMI ECONEFIN EIB EURN ETRDEINVTINTCS EIN EFIM ETIO ELAINE EMN EATO EWTR EIPR EINVETC ETTD ETDR EIQ ECONCS EPPD ENRGIZ EISL ESPINOSA ELEC EAIG ESLCO EUREM ENTG ERD EINVECONSENVCSJA EEPET EUNCH ECINECONCS ETRO ETRDECONWTOCS ECUN EFND EPECO EAIRECONRP ERGR ETRDPGOV ECPN ENRGMO EPWR EET EAIS EAGRE EDUARDO EAGRRP EAIDPHUMPRELUG EICN ECONQH EVN EGHG ELBR EINF EAIDHO EENV ETEX ERNG ED
KMDR KPAO KPKO KJUS KCRM KGHG KFRD KWMN KDEM KTFN KHIV KGIC KIDE KSCA KNNP KHUM KIPR KSUM KISL KIRF KCOR KRCM KPAL KWBG KN KS KOMC KSEP KFLU KPWR KTIA KSEO KMPI KHLS KICC KSTH KMCA KVPR KPRM KE KU KZ KFLO KSAF KTIP KTEX KBCT KOCI KOLY KOR KAWC KACT KUNR KTDB KSTC KLIG KSKN KNN KCFE KCIP KGHA KHDP KPOW KUNC KDRL KV KPREL KCRS KPOL KRVC KRIM KGIT KWIR KT KIRC KOMO KRFD KUWAIT KG KFIN KSCI KTFIN KFTN KGOV KPRV KSAC KGIV KCRIM KPIR KSOC KBIO KW KGLB KMWN KPO KFSC KSEAO KSTCPL KSI KPRP KREC KFPC KUNH KCSA KMRS KNDP KR KICCPUR KPPAO KCSY KTBT KCIS KNEP KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KNNB KGCC KINR KPOP KMFO KENV KNAR KVIR KDRG KDMR KFCE KNAO KDEN KGCN KICA KIMMITT KMCC KLFU KMSG KSEC KUM KCUL KMNP KSMT KCOM KOMCSG KSPR KPMI KRAD KIND KCRP KAUST KWAWC KTER KCHG KRDP KPAS KITA KTSC KPAOPREL KWGB KIRP KJUST KMIG KLAB KTFR KSEI KSTT KAPO KSTS KLSO KWNN KPOA KHSA KNPP KPAONZ KBTS KWWW KY KJRE KPAOKMDRKE KCRCM KSCS KWMNCI KESO KWUN KPLS KIIP KEDEM KPAOY KRIF KGICKS KREF KTRD KFRDSOCIRO KTAO KJU KWMNPHUMPRELKPAOZW KEN KO KNEI KEMR KKIV KEAI KWAC KRCIM KWCI KFIU KWIC KCORR KOMS KNNO KPAI KBWG KTTB KTBD KTIALG KILS KFEM KTDM KESS KNUC KPA KOMCCO KCEM KRCS KWBGSY KNPPIS KNNPMNUC KWN KERG KLTN KALM KCCP KSUMPHUM KREL KGH KLIP KTLA KAWK KWMM KVRP KVRC KAID KSLG KDEMK KX KIF KNPR KCFC KFTFN KTFM KPDD KCERS KMOC KDEMAF KMEPI KEMS KDRM KEPREL KBTR KEDU KNP KIRL KNNR KMPT KISLPINR KTPN KA KJUSTH KPIN KDEV KTDD KAKA KFRP KWNM KTSD KINL KJUSKUNR KWWMN KECF KWBC KPRO KVBL KOM KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KEDM KFLD KLPM KRGY KNNF KICR KIFR KM KWMNCS KAWS KLAP KPAK KDDG KCGC KID KNSD KMPF KPFO KDP KCMR KRMS KNPT KNNNP KTIAPARM KDTB KNUP KPGOV KNAP KNNC KUK KSRE KREISLER KIVP KQ KTIAEUN KPALAOIS KRM KISLAO KWM KFLOA
PHUM PINR PTER PGOV PREL PREF PL PM PHSA PE PARM PINS PK PUNE PO PALESTINIAN PU PBTS PROP PTBS POL POLI PA PGOVZI POLMIL POLITICAL PARTIES POLM PD POLITICS POLICY PAS PMIL PINT PNAT PV PKO PPOL PERSONS PING PBIO PH PETR PARMS PRES PCON PETERS PRELBR PT PLAB PP PAK PDEM PKPA PSOCI PF PLO PTERM PJUS PSOE PELOSI PROPERTY PGOVPREL PARP PRL PNIR PHUMKPAL PG PREZ PGIC PBOV PAO PKK PROV PHSAK PHUMPREL PROTECTION PGOVBL PSI PRELPK PGOVENRG PUM PRELKPKO PATTY PSOC PRIVATIZATION PRELSP PGOVEAIDUKNOSWGMHUCANLLHFRSPITNZ PMIG PREC PAIGH PROG PSHA PARK PETER POG PHUS PPREL PS PTERPREL PRELPGOV POV PKPO PGOVECON POUS PGOVPRELPHUMPREFSMIGELABEAIDKCRMKWMN PWBG PMAR PREM PAR PNR PRELPGOVEAIDECONEINVBEXPSCULOIIPBTIO PARMIR PGOVGM PHUH PARTM PN PRE PTE PY POLUN PPEL PDOV PGOVSOCI PIRF PGOVPM PBST PRELEVU PGOR PBTSRU PRM PRELKPAOIZ PGVO PERL PGOC PAGR PMIN PHUMR PVIP PPD PGV PRAM PINL PKPAL PTERE PGOF PINO PHAS PODC PRHUM PHUMA PREO PPA PEPFAR PGO PRGOV PAC PRESL PORG PKFK PEPR PRELP PREFA PNG PGOVPHUMKPAO PRELECON PINOCHET PFOR PGOVLO PHUMBA PRELC PREK PHUME PHJM POLINT PGOVPZ PGOVKCRM PGOVE PHALANAGE PARTY PECON PEACE PROCESS PLN PRELSW PAHO PEDRO PRELA PASS PPAO PGPV PNUM PCUL PGGV PSA PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA PGIV PRFE POGOV PEL PBT PAMQ PINF PSEPC POSTS PHUMPGOV PVOV PHSAPREL PROLIFERATION PENA PRELTBIOBA PIN PRELL PGOVPTER PHAM PHYTRP PTEL PTERPGOV PHARM PROTESTS PRELAF PKBL PRELKPAO PKNP PARMP PHUML PFOV PERM PUOS PRELGOV PHUMPTER PARAGRAPH PERURENA PBTSEWWT PCI PETROL PINSO PINSCE PQL PEREZ PBS

Browse by classification

Community resources

courage is contagious

Viewing cable 07MANILA473, Congressman Salceda on Politics and Economic Policy

If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs

Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
  • The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
  • The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
  • The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
To understand the justification used for the classification of each cable, please use this WikiSource article as reference.

Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #07MANILA473.
Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07MANILA473 2007-02-12 00:19 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Manila
VZCZCXRO4287
OO RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHML #0473/01 0430019
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 120019Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY MANILA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5157
INFO RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC
RUEAWJB/USDOJ WASHDC
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 2282
RUEHZS/ASEAN COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 000473 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/EP, EB/TPP/TPA 
STATE PASS USTR FOR DKATZ 
STATE PASS USAID 
TREASURY FOR OASIA 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON ETRD KIPR RP
SUBJECT:  Congressman Salceda on Politics and Economic Policy 
 
Sensitive but unclassified.  Please handle accordingly. 
 
1. (U) Summary:  Over dinner on February 5, Representative Joey 
Salceda, a close advisor to President Arroyo, predicted the passage 
of the Roxas bill on pharmaceuticals and the eventual presidency of 
its sponsor, Senator Manuel Roxas.  Salceda argued that the GRP has 
done what was necessary to stabilize the economy, and will now 
benefit from several years of high growth rates, but that the 
fundamental structural weakness of the economy will eventually 
re-assert itself.  He expressed his support for a FTA with the U.S., 
but said the Philippines will not be able to make the constitutional 
changes which would be necessary to reach such an agreement. 
Salceda let slip that he expected to take over as Chief of Staff for 
President Arroyo, which was publicly confirmed by the president two 
days after the meeting.  End summary. 
 
2. (U) Economic Counselor and Philip Ingeneri, EAP/MTS desk officer 
for Philippine economic issues, dined with Salceda and three of his 
staffers.  Salceda is a three-term congressman who will be stepping 
down at the end of his term in July, since term limits prevent him 
from seeking reelection.  Salceda is one of the most informed 
economic thinkers in Philippine politics.  His background includes 
periods spent in Europe as a financial fund manager for SBGC Warburg 
and Barings Securities, and he is one of the leading economic 
advisers to President Arroyo. 
 
FTA Needed, but Unlikely 
------------------------ 
 
3. (U) The discussion was wide-ranging, covering numerous economic 
and political themes.  Questioned about the prospects for continued 
economic liberalization, Salceda argued vigorously for a greater 
opening of the economy, but expressed disappointment with what had 
been accomplished so far.  He said he had had much higher hopes for 
the Arroyo administration, but its poor relationship with the Senate 
had limited its effectiveness.  He expressed the hope that the GRP 
and USG would be able to negotiate a bilateral free trade agreement 
before the end of Arroyo's term in 2010.  When we noted that 
negotiations for an FTA would require liberalization of 
constitutional provisions that limit foreign investment in large 
parts of the economy, Salceda replied that such changes would be 
politically impossible. 
 
The Roxas Bill 
-------------- 
 
4. (SBU) Salceda confirmed that Senator Manuel "Mar" Roxas' bill 
restricting the rights of pharmaceutical patent holders was headed 
for passage, but noted that only an inability to obtain a quorum 
could stop the bill.  (Note:  This is precisely what transpired on 
February 8 and 9, originally the last days of the congressional 
session.  On February 9, however, President Arroyo called a special 
two-day session for February 19 and 20 to bring several pieces of 
pending legislation, including the Roxas bill, to final votes.  End 
note.)  Even in that event, Salceda thought it likely the bill would 
pass in the lame duck session the first week of June.  Salceda noted 
the bad blood between Senator Roxas and the pharmaceutical companies 
dating back some years.  He said the companies had made a serious 
mistake tangling with the likely next president of the Philippines. 
He put at 60% the likelihood that Roxas would be elected to the 
presidency in the 2010 elections. 
 
Economic Growth to Increase, but Only Temporarily 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
5. (U) Salceda said that he expects economic growth to spike over 
the next two years as a result of fiscal reforms and the increased 
ability of the government to spend.  Stronger pubic sector finances 
have brought down interest rates and improved confidence, with 
several banks now competing to provide fixed-rate 10%-11% 
twenty-five year loans.  New revenue measures, a re-enacted 2006 
budget that resulted in restrained spending, and significant savings 
from a stronger peso and lower-than-expected interest rates have 
created substantial fiscal space to expand spending on 
infrastructure and basic social services such as education over the 
rest of Arroyo's term.  The 2007 budget, recently ratified by both 
houses of Congress, envisions expanding education spending from 119 
billion pesos to 135 billion pesos (13.5%) and doubling 
infrastructure investments from 75 billion pesos to 157 billion 
pesos. 
 
6.  However, according to Salceda, after a short burst of growth the 
country would return to its usual "muddling through."  The 
 
MANILA 00000473  002 OF 002 
 
 
structural problems of the Philippine economy had not been dealt 
with and would continue to constrain growth.  Salceda noted that 
recent research has shown that in other Southeast Asian countries 
90% of poverty reduction has resulted from GDP growth and only 10% 
from state intervention. 
 
But Corruption Remains a Problem 
-------------------------------- 
 
7. (U) The growth of revenues and resulting expanded spending will 
increase opportunities for corruption, Salceda cautioned.  He 
estimated that 80% of corruption in the fiscal sector translates 
into reduced revenues while the 20% represents diverted expenditure. 
 Increased spending, though, would increase corruption on the 
expenditure side.  Monitoring and oversight will be critical to 
ensuring that taxpayer funds deliver infrastructure, growth, and 
jobs. 
 
Salceda's Future Becomes Clearer 
-------------------------------- 
 
8. (SBU) After three terms in office, term limits do not allow 
Salceda another.  He said he resisted entreaties to run for the 
Senate in this year's elections, and would instead join the 
administration.  He confirmed that he has been one of Arroyo's 
closest economic advisers, and has a strong personal relationship 
with the president.  He claimed to be among the few who can get on 
the President?s good side and "make her laugh" - usually with his 
biting cynical wit.  Salceda said he would limit his stint in the 
administration to 18 months and then go to Wall Street "where the 
money is."  One of his staffers confirmed later that Salceda had 
accepted President Arroyo's offer of the position of Chief of Staff 
being vacated by Michael Defensor, who is running for the Senate. 
The President's office publicly announced Salceda's appointment on 
February 9. 
 
Kenney