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Viewing cable 07LISBON330, PORTUGAL'S ABORTION REFERENDUM EXPOSES POLITICAL

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07LISBON330 2007-02-06 09:54 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Lisbon
VZCZCXRO5762
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHLI #0330/01 0370954
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 060954Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY LISBON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5539
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LISBON 000330 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL KWMN SOCI PO
SUBJECT: PORTUGAL'S ABORTION REFERENDUM EXPOSES POLITICAL 
RIFTS 
 
 
LISBON 00000330  001.3 OF 002 
 
 
1. Summary:  A new referendum set for February 11 on the 
question of decriminalization of abortion is dominating 
Portuguese political life.  The effort to legalize abortion 
on demand in the first ten weeks of pregnancy demonstrates a 
political rift between young urbanites and older rural 
voters, a rift that cuts across political lines.  End summary. 
 
2. On February 11, Portugal will hold a referendum on the 
question of decriminalizing abortion.  This referendum ) the 
second of its kind ) has become the most dominant domestic 
political issue of the current administration.  Major 
political leaders, including Prime Minister Socrates and his 
Socialist Party (PS), vowed to refrain from lobbying for a 
specific outcome, likely to avoid alienating half the 
electorate in future elections.  Both the Prime Minister and 
the leader of the largest opposition party, center-right 
Social Democratic (PSD) leader Marques Mendes, have publicly 
stated that their party members are free to vote their 
conscience. 
 
3. The Socialists have stated, however, that they have 
legislation prepared to decriminalize abortion should the 
"yes" vote carry the day, Socrates himself wrote in favor of 
the initiative on the PS website, and PS operatives have been 
distributing campaign literature with official party logos. 
Equally, however, Socrates stated at a PS conference that 
they would not introduce the legislation if the "no" vote 
wins.  Five organizations have officially registered as 
lobbies for "yes" and at least eleven have registered as 
lobbies for "no."  These organizations have filled Lisbon and 
other cities and towns with billboards and posters. 
Activists hand out flyers at all major pedestrian areas and 
media coverage of this issue dwarfs all others. 
 
4. Currently, the Penal Code authorizes a prison sentence of 
up to three years for any pregnant woman who consents to an 
abortion or who takes action in such a way as to cause an 
abortion.  Portuguese law grants exceptions to this 
prohibition in cases of danger to the life of the mother, 
rape, incest, and severe fetal deformities.  In all of 
Europe, only Ireland, Poland, Lichtenstein, Cyprus, and Malta 
have similar laws, according to PS campaign activists. 
 
5. In the referendum, voters will be able to vote "yes" or 
"no" on the following question (informal translation):  "Do 
you agree with decriminalizing the voluntary interruption of 
pregnancy, occurring in the first ten weeks at the choice of 
the woman at legally authorized health establishments?"  This 
language is identical to the language used in the 1998 
referendum in which the "no" vote carried a majority of votes 
cast.  In that 1998 referendum, however, voter turnout was 
below the 50 percent level that gives legal standing to a 
referendum result. 
 
6. Proponents of a "no" vote complain that regardless of the 
turnout, the 1998 results represent the will of the 
Portuguese people and should be binding on the government. 
"Yes" proponents note that the first referendum was held in 
the summer when many voters were on vacation and initial 
polling results indicating a "yes" victory may have led to 
voter apathy by supporters. 
 
7. Campaigns have been largely free of invective and 
advertising has remained focused on each side,s policy 
points.  In rare divergences from this measured environment, 
the extremists have been roundly criticized by both sides.  A 
Catholic Bishop reportedly stated that anyone voting in favor 
of the referendum would be excommunicated from the church. 
Shortly thereafter, however, the Bishop issued a 
clarification noting that his statement reflected only his 
analysis of doctrine and not a threat. 
 
8. Current polling shows the "yes" vote with a significant 
lead, although recent rallies, marches, and advertising by 
the "no" lobby have made up some of the difference.  In the 
last week, polls indicated a shift in "yes" from 66 percent 
to 51 percent and in "no" from 30 percent to 44 percent. 
Polling data indicate interesting trends in terms of 
geography and age.  In Lisbon and in the south of Portugal, 
the "yes" campaign surpassed 70 percent, while in the coastal 
north and in the interior, "no" votes are close to 50 
percent.  Polls also indicate that voters aged 18-34 support 
the "yes" vote by almost 80 percent. 
 
9. Comment:  The abortion referendum is a reflection of 
Portugal,s changing demographics.  Older, more socially 
conservative voters of all parties are finding themselves 
displaced by younger, more socially liberal voters.  A 
majority of Portuguese support decriminalization of abortion, 
according to opinion surveys, but voter turnout must be 
strong for the "yes" vote to carry the day. 
 
 
LISBON 00000330  002.3 OF 002 
 
 
10. Comment continued:  Socrates made a campaign promise to 
hold the referendum in order to appease the left wing of his 
party.  Although he could have simply introduced legislation, 
the referendum offered political cover.  While the ruling PS 
has made it clear that it hopes the "yes" vote will prevail, 
the fact that both PS and PSD leaders have encouraged 
Portuguese to vote their conscience will minimize the 
prospect that either party will pay a political price due to 
the referendum.  How the parties, parliamentary delegations 
vote on any ensuing legislation, however, may have an impact 
on the how the parties are viewed in the next parliamentary 
elections in 2009. 
Hoffman