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Viewing cable 07LAPAZ443, GAS SALES TO BRAZIL: EVO SCORES -- AT LEAST IN THE

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07LAPAZ443 2007-02-16 20:48 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy La Paz
VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHLP #0443 0472048
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 162048Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY LA PAZ
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2531
INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 6559
RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 3878
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 7764
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 5008
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 2247
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 2343
RUEHMD/AMEMBASSY MADRID 3325
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 4419
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 4890
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 9478
RHMFIUU/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUMIAAA/USCINCSO MIAMI FL
RUEHUB/USINT HAVANA 0156
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS LA PAZ 000443 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/AND 
TREASURY FOR SGOOCH 
ENERGY FOR CDAY AND SLADISLAW 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EINV ENRG EPET PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: GAS SALES TO BRAZIL: EVO SCORES -- AT LEAST IN THE 
MEDIA 
 
REF: LA PAZ 2880 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
1. (SBU) The press announced on February 16 that Bolivia had 
reached agreement on the price of natural gas sales to Brazil 
after several months of negotiations.  The press have 
trumpeted the agreement as a victory for President Morales, 
even though, in reality, the increase in revenues is modest. 
Analysts expect that the gas deal will boost Morales' opinion 
poll ratings this month.  End summary. 
 
-------------------- 
Gas Deal with Brazil 
-------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) The press reported on February 16 that President 
Morales had reached agreement on the price of natural gas 
exports via two gas pipelines with Brazilian President Lula 
during his February 14 trip to Brazil.  Morales managed to 
strike a good deal for gas exported through the small 
pipeline from Bolivia to Cuiaba, Brazil, which carries around 
1.2 million cubic meters of gas per day, raising the price 
from USD 1.09 to USD 4.20 per million BTU.  However, the 
price of gas exported through the large pipeline to Sao 
Paulo, which carries around 26 million cubic meters per day, 
was only increased by around 4 percent of the current price 
of USD 4.20 per million BTU -- much lower than the GOB's 
hoped-for increase of 25 percent.  An increase of 25 percent 
would have made the price roughly equivalent to the price 
agreed to by Argentina in the contract signed in October 2006 
(reftel).  The current price with Brazil was determined by a 
formula in the gas sales agreement (GSA) between the two 
nations.  The new price will be based on an adjusted formula, 
which places a higher value on gas with greater caloric 
content (due to containing liquids), which will be added as 
an appendix to the GSA.  Press reports also indicate that 
Brazil agreed to promote the construction of petrochemical 
and biodiesel plants on the border and transfer agricultural 
technology. 
 
--------------------- 
Evo is Seen as Winner 
--------------------- 
 
3. (SBU) Despite the GOB's failure to achieve a significant 
increase in price for the majority of gas exports to Brazil, 
the press touted the agreement as a win for President Morales 
and Bolivia.  The agreement was viewed by the press and 
public alike as a political victory, by which Morales 
increased Bolivian revenues and reinforced his friendship 
with President Lula.  Press reports indicate that Bolivia 
will receive an additional USD 144 million in annual revenue 
due to the price increases, but fail to mention that this 
figure is much lower than the targeted USD 625 million. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
4. (SBU) While the economic gains of this deal are meager, 
the real winner could be Evo Morales' political standing. 
Press coverage has led the public to think that President 
Morales' negotiations were more successful than they actually 
were.  Analysts expect that the gas deal will boost Morales' 
opinion poll ratings this month.  End comment. 
GOLDBERG