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Viewing cable 07DILI61, RICE SHORTAGE: POLITICAL AND SECURITY IMPLICATIONS IN TIMOR

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07DILI61 2007-02-22 09:57 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Dili
VZCZCXRO4435
OO RUEHPB
DE RUEHDT #0061/01 0530957
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O R 220957Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY DILI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3285
INFO RUEHDT/AMEMBASSY DILI 2626
RUCNARF/ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0808
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEHJA/AMEMBASSY JAKARTA 0806
RUEHLI/AMEMBASSY LISBON 0774
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0873
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 0709
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 0632
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0593
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DILI 000061 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/MTS, DS, CA 
USUN FOR RICHARD MCCURRY 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV EAGR EAID ASEC CASC KPKO TT
SUBJECT: RICE SHORTAGE: POLITICAL AND SECURITY IMPLICATIONS IN TIMOR 
 
REF: A) DILI 27; B) DILI 45; C) DILI 46; D) DILI 49 
 
DILI 00000061  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
1. (U) Summary: A severe rice shortage in East Timor has caused 
both a dramatic increase in the price of rice and in many cases 
a total lack of availability at any cost. Although the UN has 
emphasized that the rice shortage does not translate into an 
overall food shortage, the immediate political and security 
impacts are notable. Many Timorese see political manipulation 
behind the shortage or, at the very least, a lack of political 
will to address the situation in its early stages a month ago. 
The issue is also feeding into the overall increase in security 
concerns in Dili, as crowds of people claiming hunger have been 
descending on the main World Food Program (WFP) and Ministry of 
Labor warehouses demanding rice. In addition, a concerted 
campaign of rock-throwing attacks against government vehicles 
may be connected to anger regarding this issue.    Government 
officials have been requesting patience and announcing that 
overseas rice purchases are on the way.  In the interim the WFP 
is loaning a large portion of its stock to the Government in 
order to stabilize the market and distribution and resale on 
wide scale is due to commence tomorrow (February 23). This, 
along with rains and a delay or suspension of demonstration 
plans by an opposition group appears to have resulted in some 
reduction of security incidents today. However, the rice 
situation has clearly injected an additional volatility into an 
environment already characterized by the ongoing gang clashes, 
policing challenges, and continued demonstration plans (see 
reftels). Most observers believe that the recent spike in 
tensions will be sustained through the presidential and 
parliamentary elections during the next several months although 
no one can predict how volatile the situation will become. 
Embassy is continuing to closely monitor the security 
environment and today issued an updated warden message to the 
American community. The Embassy is also closely monitoring 
access routes and neighborhoods of American residences, 
facilities, and schools. End summary. 
 
2. (U) Regional rice market developments, specifically a 
dramatic reduction in exports from Vietnam combined with 
increased imports by other nations, have resulted in greatly 
reduced rice supply available on the market in East Timor. Other 
domestic causes cited by observers include security issues 
reducing port offloading hours, allegations of hording by some 
distributors, and reports of some re-export of food aid and 
other rice to West Timor in Indonesia. Market prices for rice 
have as much as tripled and many stores have no stocks on the 
shelves at all. At a briefing to the diplomatic community on 
February 21, SRSG (Special Representative of the 
Secretary-General) Atul Khare emphasized that there is not 
 
SIPDIS 
currently a food shortage, and street markets appear to remain 
well stocked with produce, but most Timorese regard rice as a 
basic necessity and a lack of rice as essentially a lack of 
food. 
 
3. (SBU) A large number of Timorese perceive political forces at 
work behind the rice shortage, asserting that political actors 
are using it to their own ends, i.e. by holding onto rice stocks 
to use during elections or distributing rice only to political 
allies. Such claims are purely speculative at this point, but 
there is a widespread perception that there are large stocks of 
rice in East Timor that are simply being withheld. Less 
conspiracy-minded Timorese are still expressing anger at a 
perceived lack of political will to address the issue. They note 
that regional shortage issues have been on the Government's 
agenda for the last month with no effective action taken. They 
also point to the Government's Fiscal Year (FY) 2006-2007 fund 
for food emergencies which has apparently not been tapped. Some 
are are publicly asking why this $7.5 million fund resides with 
the Ministry of Development, which reports to Deputy Prime 
Minister and staunch Fretilin party member Estanislau da Silva, 
rather than with the Ministry of Labor which reports to the 
politically independent Deputy Prime Minister, Rui Araujo. (N.B. 
The Ministry of Labor has been the lead ministry on humanitarian 
relief.) 
 
4. (U) Popular anger about the rice shortages is having an 
immediate impact on Dili's security environment.    Over the 
 
DILI 00000061  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
last few days, crowds of people in the range of several dozen to 
several hundred have repeatedly appeared in the vicinity of the 
main World Food Program (WFP) and Ministry of Labor warehouses 
demanding access to rice. Following a successful rebuffing of 
such a crowd on February 20, the crowd then proceeded to launch 
a rock-throwing attack on a nearby government building, housing 
the Ministry of Development among others, breaking a number of 
windows. International Security Force (ISF) personnel have since 
been guarding both warehouses, and no other such incidents have 
occurred, but the situation remains volatile. In addition, 
unknown actors have launched a concerted rock-throwing attack 
campaign against government vehicles over the last 48 or so 
hours, and there is widespread agreement that this is a direct 
response to the rice issue. Some ISF and a number of UN police 
vehicles have also been targeted, and several private Timorese 
and foreign citizens have been caught in the crossfire. SRSG 
Khare told diplomats that 17 UN vehicles were destroyed by 
crowds February 21-22. The cars of several senior Timorese 
officials have also been attacked. In the past two weeks, two 
U.S. Embassy vehicles have been damaged by rock-throwing 
incidents. 
 
5. (U) In his February 21 briefing, SRSG Khare confirmed that 
the WFP is loaning 300 metric tons of rice to the GOET in order 
to sell directly to selected stores to help inject a new supply 
and bring down prices. Khare reported that the WFP loan was 
transferred to the Government on February 20. Today (February 
22), GOET started some distribution of 224 tons of rice in Dili 
to sell through cooperatives at officially set prices; wide 
scale distribution is to commence tomorrow. In addition, WFP has 
plans to bring in further supplies over the next weeks and both 
Prime Minister Jose Ramos-Horta and Deputy Prime Minister da 
Silva reported to the national media that rice purchases from 
Australia, China and Thailand would be arriving over the next 
two or three weeks, including one shipment of 1000 metric tons. 
 
6. (U) The Movement for National Unity and Justice (MUNJ) 
suspended demonstrations planned for today and are reportedly 
holding discussions to decide whether to proceed with 
demonstrations in the coming days. The demonstration suspension, 
along with rains and the news that rice is on the way appears to 
have brought about a reduction in incidents in Dili over the 
last 24 hours. 
 
7. (SBU) Comment: Despite this expected relief over the next 
couple weeks, the current situation has clearly injected an 
additional volatility into an environment already characterized 
by the ongoing gang clashes, policing challenges, and continued 
demonstration plans. The apparent response to the rice issue has 
not been targeted towards private foreign citizens or diplomats 
and the overall security environment remains as described in 
recent reporting. However, some collateral impact from the 
increased attacks on government officials will likely occur. In 
light of this, as well as continued gang clashes and 
demonstration plans, an updated warden message was sent to the 
American community today. The Australian Embassy has issued a 
similar updated warning to Australian citizens. Embassy Dili is 
also closely monitoring access routes and neighborhoods of 
American residences, facilities, and schools. While there was 
some reduction in incidents today (January 23), Embassy Dili is 
continuing to monitor the security situation closely. End 
comment. 
HARSHA