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Viewing cable 07YAOUNDE124, CAMEROON: 2005 CENSUS RESULTS DELAYED

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07YAOUNDE124 2007-01-30 09:35 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Yaounde
VZCZCXRO2216
RR RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHYD #0124/01 0300935
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 300935Z JAN 07
FM AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7230
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA 1249
RUEHGI/AMEMBASSY BANGUI 0102
RUEHBZ/AMEMBASSY BRAZZAVILLE 0020
RUEHKI/AMEMBASSY KINSHASA 0879
RUEHLC/AMEMBASSY LIBREVILLE 1421
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1488
RUEHMA/AMEMBASSY MALABO 0158
RUEHNJ/AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA 1387
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1738
RUEHOS/AMCONSUL LAGOS 0381
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YAOUNDE 000124 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/C 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA ACTION OFFICERS 
EUCOM FOR J5-A AFRICA DIVISION AND POLAD YATES 
USDOC FOR BUREAU OF THE CENSUS, OFFICE OF AFRICA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SOCI PGOV CM NI
SUBJECT: CAMEROON: 2005 CENSUS RESULTS DELAYED 
 
REF: A. 05 CAMEROON 2101 
     B. ABUJA 44 
 
YAOUNDE 00000124  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
1.  (U) Results from Cameroon's third General Population and 
Housing census, launched November 11, 2005, will be delayed 
until at least August 2007.  The Government claims it lacks 
the funds to publish the report, whose results were promised 
by July 2006.  The late publication of the results, whether 
from bureaucratic difficulties or lack of political will, 
will affect the 2007 legislative elections as the certain 
substantial population increase would warrant more seats in 
Parliament.  End Summary. 
 
------------------- 
How many people and 
where do they live? 
------------------- 
 
2.  (U) To much fanfare in November 2005, the Government of 
Cameroon (GRC) launched the third General Population and 
Housing census, the first to be held in almost 20 years (Ref 
A).  Normally the census should be held every 10 years, but 
lack of funds prevented this.  The 2005 census had been 
ordered by presidential decree in September 2001.  When the 
census was announced, rough results were promised within a 
few months, and the full statistical analysis within 8-12 
months. 
 
3.  (U) An accurate picture of Cameroon's population is badly 
needed.  The last official population figure is 16 million. 
Conservative estimates place it at 17.3; others believe there 
could be as many as 18-20 million people living in Cameroon. 
Census counters in fall 2005 encountered some difficulties in 
reaching remote villages and some resistance to answering 
questions from people who did not understand the process. 
The counting time was extended and though there were reports 
that some people never spoke to a census taker, the exercise 
was probably conducted as well as could be hoped for given 
the operating environment. 
 
------------ 
Survey Says? 
------------ 
 
4.  (U) The lack of rough or final results went largely 
unremarked when target deadlines were missed in 2006. 
Cameroon is notoriously slow in publishing official reports, 
so delays in the census did not raise any eyebrows.  (Note: 
The National Elections Observatory's report on the 2004 
presidential elections was only published in late 2006.  End 
Note.)  The independent newspaper Le Messager published a 
small item January 19 reporting that the census results would 
not be available until August 2007, and citing "informed 
sources" who blamed funding delays at various stages of the 
operation for the overall delay.  According to Le Messager, 
the GRC is supposed to release 960 million CFA (about USD 1.9 
million) to accelerate work. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
5.  (SBU) When the census was launched, the GRC stressed its 
importance for properly implementing the Poverty Reduction 
Strategy and the National Good Governance program.  Of 
course, knowing the size and distribution of the population 
is also important with respect to elections, and Cameroon is 
slated to hold legislative and municipal elections in summer 
2007.  Despite the ruling Cameroon People's Democratic 
Movement's (CPDM) firm control of the legislature, there are 
 
YAOUNDE 00000124  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
indications that senior officials fear the CPDM's position is 
more tenuous than it appears.  If census results indicate 
that the number of seats in parliament must be increased, the 
opposition could have a relatively easy shot at the new 
seats.  This would not likely result in a power shift in 
parliament, but could give opposition parties and candidates 
a better standing to contest the presidency in 2011. 
 
6.  (SBU) While funding delays could very well be a problem 
in publishing the census results, softening political will is 
probably also a factor.  It is lost on no one that 
neighboring Nigeria managed to count its population of 140 
million and to analyze and publish the results in the time 
since counting in Cameroon concluded (Ref. B).   End Comment. 
MARQUARDT