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Viewing cable 07MEXICO390, MEXICO ECONOMIC NOTES, JANUARY 18 - JANUARY 24,

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07MEXICO390 2007-01-25 23:49 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Mexico
VZCZCXRO8903
PP RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #0390/01 0252349
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 252349Z JAN 07
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5102
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/CDR USNORTHCOM PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 000390 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR A/S SHANNON 
STATE FOR WHA/MEX, WHA/EPSC, EB/IFD/OMA 
STATE FOR EB/ESC MCMANUS AND IZZO 
USDOC FOR 4320/ITA/MAC/WH/ONAFTA/ARUDMAN 
USDOC FOR ITS/TD/ENERGY DIVISION 
TREASURY FOR IA (ALICE FAIBISHENKO) 
DOE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS KDEUTSCH AND ALOCKWOOD 
STATE PASS TO USTR (EISSENSTAT/MELLE) 
STATE PASS TO FEDERAL RESERVE (CARLOS ARTETA) 
NSC FOR DAN FISK 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON ECPS EFIN ELAB MX PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: MEXICO ECONOMIC NOTES, JANUARY 18 - JANUARY 24, 
2007 
 
 
Sensitive but Unclassified, entire text. 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1.  (SBU) Finance Secretary Agustin Carstens discussed 
technical assistance, and Economy Secretary Sojo raised 
border facilitation in meetings with the Embassy.  The 
Embassy's Energy Reform Project held its first public 
meeting.  Questions remain even within Pemex about the cause 
of a six percent drop in crude production between November 
and December.  While high tortilla prices have caused 
problems for Calderon, in fact, they rose less than analysts 
predicted leading to a 0.33% jump in inflation in the first 
half of January.  Intervention from Labor Secretary Javier 
Lozano averted a strike by sugar workers.  End summary. 
 
Ambassador Meets with Hacienda and Economia Secretaries 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
2.  (SBU) Ambassador Garza met with Finance Secretay Agustin 
Carstens and Economy Secretary Eduardo Sojo.  Carstens raised 
technical assistance; while the Ambassador and Sojo discussed 
improving North American competitiveness and improving border 
facilitation.  (See Mexico 306-Sojo and Mexico 351-Carstens.) 
 
Energy Reform Project First Public Meeting 
------------------------------------------ 
 
3.  (SBU) In the first public meeting under the Embassy's 
Energy Reform Project, the Instituto Technologico Autonomo de 
Mexico (ITAM), the Mexican Council on Foreign Affairs 
(COMEXI), and the U.S. Center for Strategic and International 
Studies (CSIS) held a seminar on Mexican Energy.  Members of 
the Mexican Congress including Senate Finance Committee Chair 
Gustavo Madero, Energy Committee Chair Francisco Labastida, 
and Deputies and Senators from all three political parties 
shared views on reform in the event, which was broadly 
covered in the Mexican press. 
 
Pemex Still Mum on Production Drop 
---------------------------------- 
 
4.  (SBU) Pemex officials contacted by the Embassy were still 
scrambling to explain the continued steep drop in Mexican 
crude production which fell from 3.16 to 2.98 thousand 
barrels per day from November to December 2006, the lowest 
level since November 2000.  Most all of the drop was due to 
declines from the Cantarell field.  Some Pemex officials 
called the dip a result of bad weather that delayed 
deliveries, but others were less certain. 
 
High Tortilla Prices Pressure Calderon.  .   . 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
5.  (SBU) A spike in tortilla prices has caused public 
protests and political headaches for the Calderon 
Administration.  The government is taking measures to bring 
prices down, including: increased corn imports; a deal with 
some major tortilla distributors to set price caps 
temporarily; and investigations into whether corn merchants 
who have been holding onto their stocks and speculating on 
higher prices might have engaged in anti-competitive 
practices.  Despite the price hikes, there does not seem to 
be a corn shortage in Mexico.  The additional imports, an 
upcoming harvest in the state of Sinaloa, and all the 
political heat will persuade those still sitting on corn 
stocks to get them on the market sooner rather than later, 
thus bringing down prices and alleviating the political 
pressure on the government. (See septel.) 
 
 
MEXICO 00000390  002 OF 002 
 
 
.  .  .But Inflation Less than Feared 
------------------------------------- 
 
6.  (SBU) Mexican consumer prices climbed a 
lower-than-expected 0.33% in the first half of January, as 
prices of key items, such as tortillas and eggs, rose less 
than analysts expected.  In annual terms, headline inflation 
fell from 4.1% in December to 4.0% -- back within the 
government's 2% to 4% target range for the first time since 
September 2006.  More worrisome is the rise in core inflation 
from 3.6% in December to 3.8%. 
 
Labor Secretary Averts Sugar Strike, For Now 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
7.  (SBU) Labor Secretary Javier Lozano negotiated a deal 
between Mexico's sugar workers and mill operators earlier 
this week tentatively averting a strike.  Mill operators 
agreed to dropping workers' retirement age from 65 to 60; 
while union representatives accepted a single payment be made 
to retiring workers based on time of service in addition to 
Mexican Social Security benefits.  (See Mexico 352.) 
 
Calderon Touts FDI 
------------------ 
 
8.  (SBU)  In a meeting of Mexico's Executive Board of Global 
Business (CEEG, an organization of major multinational firms 
active in Mexico), Calderon told foreign business leaders 
that from the beginning of his Administration he has worked 
on ways to give guarantees that would encourage foreign 
investment, in contrast to other governments in the region 
which are thinking of expropriating and decommissioning 
investments.  Meanwhile the CEEG chairman announced that his 
member companies would commit to invest USD 3 Billion during 
the first 100 days of Calderon's Administration.  (Comment: 
Given Mexico's 2006 USD 18.9 Billion in FDI, the USD 3 
billion figure in 100 days seems a bit low.  This gives 
further credence to predictions from the Institute of 
International Finance that 2007 FDI for Mexico will decrease 
by nearly USD 3 billion.) 
 
Calderon Subsidizes Energy for the Poor 
--------------------------------------- 
 
9.  (SBU) Calderon fulfilled a campaign promise by announcing 
a USD 275 million initiative to subsidize energy costs of the 
five million households registered for the "Opportunities" 
anti-poverty program.  Calderon said the energy subsidy would 
increase the assistance received by nearly 25 million poor 
Mexicans by 30%, and raise the budget for the Opportunities 
program by 10%. 
 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity 
GARZA