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Viewing cable 07KINSHASA51, KABILA COALITION WILL LEAD SEVEN OF DRC'S ELEVEN

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07KINSHASA51 2007-01-19 08:43 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Kinshasa
VZCZCXRO2433
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHKI #0051 0190843
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 190843Z JAN 07
FM AMEMBASSY KINSHASA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5426
INFO RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
UNCLAS KINSHASA 000051 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: KABILA COALITION WILL LEAD SEVEN OF DRC'S ELEVEN 
PROVINCIAL ASSEMBLIES 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: President Joseph Kabila's Alliance for the 
Presidential Majority (AMP) coalition -- which includes Prime 
Minister Antoine Gizenga's PALU and Nzanga Mobutu's UDEMO 
parties -- will lead seven of the DRC's eleven provincial 
assemblies, following votes January 12-14. Former Vice 
President Jean-Pierre Bemba's Union for the Nation (UN) 
alliance will lead the remaining four assemblies. The makeup 
of certain provincial assemblies' executive offices may have 
an impact on the outcome of the upcoming elections for 
senators and governors. End summary. 
 
2. (U) Provincial deputies voted January 12-14 for the 
leadership positions in their respective assemblies. The 
pro-Kabila AMP -- whose major parties include the PPRD, 
Gizenga's PALU, and Nzanga's UDEMO -- won executive control 
of seven of the DRC's eleven provincial assemblies: Bandundu, 
Katanga, Maniema, North Kivu, South Kivu, Orientale, and 
Eastern Kasai. Bemba's UN alliance will lead the remaining 
four: Bas-Congo, Equateur, Kinshasa, and Western Kasai. Each 
assembly is led by five members, including a president, vice 
president, spokesman ("rapporteur"), deputy spokesman, and 
administrative/financial officer ("questeur"). These members 
will set the assemblies' legislative agendas and processes. 
 
3. (U) Results were lopsided in all but one province, with 
one or the other coalition winning four or five of the five 
available seats. The exception was Western Kasai province, 
where the UN coalition won three positions to two for an 
AMP-Rally for Congolese Democracy (RCD) coalition. 
 
4. (U) The pro-Kabila AMP-PALU-UDEMO coalition initially won 
the majority of seats in six of the DRC's eleven provincial 
assemblies following the October 30 elections. The AMP later 
forged an alliance with former Vice President Azarias 
Ruberwa's Rally for Congolese Democracy (RCD) to create a 
majority coalition in both Eastern and Western Kasai, where 
the RCD won a significant number of seats. This alliance 
would have given the AMP control of the leadership of eight 
provincial assemblies. 
 
5. (SBU) The AMP-RCD alliance faltered, however, during the 
leadership race in Western Kasai. The UN coalition, led by 
members of Bemba's Movement for the Liberation of Congo 
(MLC), won three of the assembly's five leadership positions, 
including the presidency and vice presidency. The remaining 
two slots went to the PPRD and the RCD. The AMP-RCD coalition 
failed to win a majority despite its numbers because deputies 
voted more along ethnic than party lines. 
 
6. (SBU) The UN alliance's control of Western Kasai's 
assembly could affect the upcoming elections for the 
province's senators and governor, who will be chosen by 
provincial deputies on January 19 and 27, respectively. There 
are 60 candidates running for eight national senate seats, 
evenly split between AMP and UN candidates. The contest for 
governor could likewise be affected. Former Vice Minister of 
Budget Tresor Kapuku (a member of the RCD running as an AMP 
candidate) had been the favorite against MLC candidate 
Alexandre Kande in a field of four candidates. The UN 
alliance's hold over the assembly's leadership could swing 
votes among the deputies. 
 
7. (SBU) Likewise in Kinshasa and North Kivu, control of the 
executive offices -- based on political and ethnic 
compositions -- could influence gubernatorial elections. In 
Kinshasa, where the MLC won four of the assembly's executive 
positions, businessman Martin Fayulu (an independent 
candidate, but with ties to both Kabila and Bemba) has been 
running a close race against MLC candidate Adam Bombole. 
While the AMP holds all five seats in North Kivu's assembly 
leadership, it is controlled by deputies of Nande origin 
which disfavors current governor Eugene Serufuli (a Hutu), 
who is attempting to retain his position (septel). 
 
8. (SBU) Comment: With these elections, the Kabila coalition 
now controls the offices of President and Prime Minister, the 
leadership committees of the National Assembly and the 
majority of provincial assemblies -- the levers of power at 
nearly all levels of government. Races for senators and 
governors will very likely continue this trend. We think it 
unlikely these coalitions as currently constituted will hold 
in the coming months, though, as they were created more out 
of political opportunity than ideological compatibility. End 
comment. 
MEECE