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Viewing cable 07BASRAH8, LOOKING AHEAD TO ELECTIONS

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07BASRAH8 2007-01-17 07:11 2011-08-24 16:30 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY REO Basrah
VZCZCXRO9595
RR RUEHDA RUEHDE RUEHIHL RUEHKUK
DE RUEHBC #0008 0170711
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 170711Z JAN 07
FM REO BASRAH
TO RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD 0104
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0501
INFO RUEHBC/REO BASRAH 0521
RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS BASRAH 000008 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: LOOKING AHEAD TO ELECTIONS 
 
This cable is sensitive, but unclassified. Please protect 
accordingly. 
 
1. (SBU) The REO staff have been polling our Basrah contacts 
since September regarding the likelihood of provincial elections 
and possible outcomes.  With few exceptions, REO contacts have 
overwhelmingly stated that election planning and candidate 
vetting is stalled until the new election law is passed and a 
new electoral commission comes into being.  Many expressed 
frustration that the issue was not a higher priority in Baghdad, 
and a few believed there would be a "fix" in setting the dates 
in order to allow the current government the advantage in 
garnering support and votes.  Members of the Basrah Provincial 
Council were clear that the biggest development would be whether 
the candidates ran as individuals or in blocs. 
 
2. (U) At least one citizens' group, the Gathering to Save 
Basrah, has made it clear that it will support individuals, not 
parties, in the next election as incumbents have proved 
disappointing.  (Note: The Gathering is made up of a 
cross-section of professionals, academics, clerics, and tribal 
members who restrict membership  to those with no political 
affiliation.  End note.)  It is the only local group that post 
is aware of that plans to back specific candidates based on 
expertise and experience.  Since the last elections in January 
2005, Basrah has suffered a decrease in essential services while 
the crime rate has notably risen. 
 
3. (U) Basrah's political powerhouses are affiliated with Shi'a 
politics and that is not expected to change.  Guessing as to a 
likely outcome this early on is not advisable.  However,  if 
candidates are judged on an individuals basis and not by party 
bloc, then it is possible that blocs such as the United Iraqi 
Alliance will have competition for the majority of electoral 
seats.  Fadhila Party, the governor's party, is still considered 
strong but there is public resentment over the party's inability 
to promote economic growth despite the province's oil and 
shipping wealth.  We also expect that the Office of the Martyr 
Sadr party, (the political arm of Jai'sh al-Mahdi), will run 
candidates in the next election after boycotting the first. 
 
4. (U) The local citizenry were active participants in the last 
election and are expected to be active once again.  Poll 
violence was almost non-existent in the last elections, and 
voter turnout was high.  The head of Basrah's Independent 
Electoral Commission of Iraq expects heavy voter participation 
in the next election as the main issues - essential services and 
security affect most of the households.  Thus, if the elections 
are called with enough time to educate the population, and if 
candidates run as individuals not blocs, we expect turnout will 
be high for the next election. 
 
BONO