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Viewing cable 06ZAGREB1480, RIGHT WING WINS NEIGHBORHOOD COUNCILS IN EASTERN CITY OF

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06ZAGREB1480 2006-12-14 11:54 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Zagreb
VZCZCXRO5362
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHVB #1480 3481154
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 141154Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7046
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS ZAGREB 001480 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV HR
SUBJECT: RIGHT WING WINS NEIGHBORHOOD COUNCILS IN EASTERN CITY OF 
OSIJEK 
 
REF: ZAGREB 1466 and previous 
 
1.  Summary and comment:  The regional Croatian Democratic Congress 
of Slavonia and Baranja (HDSSB, a party led by war-crimes suspect 
and local strongman Branimir Glavas) and the right-wing Croatian 
Party of Rights (HSP) won over half the seats in the Osijek city 
neighborhood councils (the lowest level of self-government) in 
December 10 elections.  These two parties' success should be seen in 
the context of Glavas's hunger strike in reaction to war crime 
proceedings against him (see reftel).  While Glavas's protest has 
bolstered the Slovonian right wing, more general support for these 
groups, especially HSP, tends to oscillate according to occasion. A 
30 percent voter turnout cannot be assumed to reflect the sentiments 
of a majority in Osijek, let alone the voters in the rest of the 
country, and should not be viewed with undue alarm.  End summary and 
comment. 
 
2.  The city of Osijek on December 10 held elections for 
neighborhood councils, the lowest levels of elected authority. 
Because the powers of these bodies do not exceed decisions such as 
whether there should be two or three benches in a park, turnouts are 
typically low, and the December 10 turnout in Osijek was just under 
30 percent.  Five parties managed to cross the five-percent 
threshold.  The recently created party HDSSB -- a regional movement 
gathered around former Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) renegade 
Branimir Glavas -- won 33.2 percent.  Its partner in the city and 
county -- the far-right HSP -- won 21.6 percent.  The nationally 
ruling HDZ came third with 12.4, followed by the social democrats 
(SDP) and its regional partner (9.7 percent).  The only other party 
clearing the threshold was the Croatian Pensioners Party (HSU), a 
party with steady support ever since it entered parliament in 2003. 
Everyone, including the winners, agrees that the victory of the two 
right-wing groups is directly linked to the war crimes proceedings 
against Branimir Glavas, his ensuing hunger strike and temporary 
release.  After he left the HDZ in the spring of 2005, Glavas built 
his political platform on defending the eastern region of Slavonia 
against the central(ized) power in Zagreb.  This policy climaxed 
when his detention became imminent and his supporters rallied behind 
him under the slogan "Be spiteful, Slavonia!"  The slogan must have 
hit the right note for just over half of the thirty percent of 
voters in Osijek who turned out on December 10. 
 
3. Despite the low turnout and insignificant authority of these 
councils, HDSSB and the HSP will certainly try to exploit this 
success on the road to what they hope will be a victory in 2007 
national elections.  Osijek-Baranja County Prefect Kresimir Bubalo 
(HDSSB) has already projected the next Parliament based on these 
results, arguing that no future government will be possible without 
his party, an argument HSP leaders have made about themselves many 
times before.  A nation-wide poll from early December rated the HSP 
at 16.3 percent, which is probably a historic high.  Support for the 
HSP over the past year has wavered between 6 percent (last spring) 
and 16 now, and is usually closely linked to the prevailing 
political circumstances at that moment.  Glavas's influence in 
Osijek and the surrounding county has always been great, and his 
self-induced "martyrdom" has apparently won him sympathy from voters 
outside his core base.  His strong alliance with the HSP -- a party 
that views and promotes itself as the best defender of national 
interests -- has undoubtedly attracted support for their cause from 
other parts of the country, as the poll shows.  Nevertheless, 70 
percent of the Osijek voters did not show up at the polls, 
unmotivated by the Glavas cause. Many of those could well be the 
"silent majority" that had for fourteen years voted for a liberal 
mayor before the current Glavas-Djapic combination, and now simply 
finds no one to represent their interests adequately. 
 
BRADTKE