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Viewing cable 06BUENOSAIRES2694, CHAVEZ; CUBA; MEXICO; ARGENTINA-IRAN; 12/04/06; BUENOS

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06BUENOSAIRES2694 2006-12-05 21:20 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Buenos Aires
VZCZCXYZ0048
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #2694/01 3392120
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 052120Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6690
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT
UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 002694 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, 
WHA/EPSC 
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: CHAVEZ; CUBA; MEXICO; ARGENTINA-IRAN; 12/04/06; BUENOS 
AIRES 
 
1. SUMMARY STATEMENT 
 
Today's papers report on the outcome of Venezuelan elections. 
Weekend papers cover Cuban Raul Castro's proposal of a negotiation 
with the US; the swearing-in of  Mexican President Calderon; and the 
state of Argentina's ties with Iran following Judge Canicoba 
Corral's decision to request the international arrest of former 
Iranian government officials for the AMIA bombing case. 
 
Conservative "La Prensa," business-financial "Ambito Financiero", 
leading "Clarin," and daily-of-record "La Nacion," as well as "El 
Tribuno de Salta" and other provincial papers report that Ambassador 
Wayne met with Governor Romero in Salta and that the two confirmed 
their commitment to fight drugs. 
 
Leading "Clarin" (12/03) carries an op-ed piece by Henry Kissinger, 
former US Secretary of State, headlined "Diplomacy plus pressure to 
deal with Northern Korea." In his story, Kissinger said that "the 
possibility of sanctions cannot be discarded." 
 
2. OPINION PIECES 
 
- "'The US will try to distance Kirchner from Chavez'" 
 
Jorge Elias, on special assignment in Caracas for daily-of-record 
"La Nacion," writes (12/02) "Once Sunday elections in Venezuela are 
over, President Hugo Chavez will receive a report from General 
Alberto Muller Rojas, head of the Joint-Chiefs-of Staff, which he 
will read in detail... 
 
"In this report, Muller Rojas will say that 'there is a lobby from 
the US' to 'distance Nestor Kirchner from Chavez, given the close 
ties between Venezuela and Iran,' and to trigger 'disagreement 
between the government and the Peronist left (CGT, Madres de Plaza 
de Mayo and picketers' movements),' both among themselves and 
between them and the military. 
 
"Muller Rojas said that 'these lobbying operations work by fueling 
internal contradictions in order to avoid the surge of a multi-polar 
world order.' 
 
"... 'The US will attempt to separate Kirchner from Chavez and also 
from the left wing of the Peronist party.'" 
 
- "Venezuela - good and bad reasons favor Chavez" 
 
Oscar Raul Cardoso, international analyst for leading "Clarin," 
writes (12/02) "Things are getting complicated for the US in Latin 
America and Hugo Chavez's most certain victory in Venezuela's 
presidential elections will not improve the scenario for 
Washington... 
 
"... As long as the latest phase in capitalist development continues 
to be presented as the inevitable prosperity of those who are 
already prosperous, leaderships like Chavez's will have fertile soil 
to grow. 
 
"One only has to look at Ecuador and the victory of Rafael Correa or 
the divided Mexico in which Felipe Calderon has just taken office to 
reach the conclusion that even the victories of the right wing may 
be shaky... There is a reality in the region, and those who continue 
to ignore it are putting everybody else at risk." 
 
- "Pressure mounts for Washington to negotiate with Cuba" 
 
Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin," 
writes (12/04) "Raul Castro's proposal to negotiate with the US was 
rejected by the Bush administration and downplayed by the US media. 
 
 
"However, US experts and observers who have closely followed the 
evolution of the Cuban situation consider it a historic move and say 
that it will reinforce the position of those who have lobbied for a 
change of policy regarding the island, particularly lifting the 
embargo." 
 
- "Growing up" 
 
Marcelo Cantelmi, international editor of leading "Clarin," comments 
(12/03) "Yesterday was a day of high symbolic value for Cubans. They 
celebrated a transition that will have huge historic importance for 
the island. 
 
""It is in this context that one should interpret Raul Castro's 
proposal of dialogue with Washington... The USG's rejection is not 
surprising but it is impressive since it follows the same logic with 
which it has handled other conflicts in the world, to the results 
 
everybody knows. 
 
"The US-Cuban confrontation is a long-standing legacy of the Cold 
War. US experts themselves have acknowledged that the island is no 
longer a threat. And the embargo against Cuba has been a colossal 
failure that strengthened rather than weakened the Castro regime. On 
the basis of these realities, it is now time to mature." 
 
- "The US assesses passengers' 'terrorist risk'" 
 
Leonardo Mindez, on special assignment in Washington for leading 
"Clarin," writes (12/02) "According to the Homeland Security 
Department, if you traveled to the US after the September 11 
attacks, you were given a score to measure the risk that you may 
belong to a terrorist organization. 
 
"... The news about the ATS system even took human rights 
organizations that defend privacy by surprise. They had thought that 
the ATS was only used to identify baggage, not passengers. According 
to David Sobel, a lawyer from Fundacion Frontera Electronica, 'it is 
probably the most invasive system developed by the government in 
terms of number of affected people.'" 
 
- "A beginning without a honeymoon" 
 
Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for 
daily-of-record "La Nacion" on special assignment in Mexico, D.F., 
writes (12/02) "... Pamela Starr, Mexican analyst at the largest 
multinational consulting corporation on political analysis, Eurasia 
Group, said that five months after winning elections and having gone 
through a difficult transition, 'there will not be any honeymoon for 
Calderon.' 
 
"During the first weeks and months of his term in office, Calderon 
will have to face a series of serious challenges. The major and most 
immediate challenge will be posed by the leftist opposition, but it 
will not be the only one.' 
But she trusts the new president's 'realistic strategy.'" 
 
- "Contradictions" 
 
Marcelo Cantelmi, international editor of leading "Clarin," writes 
(12/02) "Be careful. Let's not believe that this conflict is the 
result of Mexicans going crazy. You could be wrong. It is happening 
to them, but it is a sign of a democratic weakness that surpasses 
the borders of that contradicting country... 
 
"It is the cost of the well-spread model of the last fifteen years, 
which did not take into account that modernizing a country means to 
eliminate, not boost, inequality... 
 
"The main threat to democracy in the region is still a distribution 
system marked by exclusion which gains explosive features and ends 
up bursting. The first thing to do is to neutralize this threat." 
 
- "Kirchner, Iran and AMIA" 
 
Juan Gabriel Tokatlian, professor of International Relations at 
Universidad San Andres, writes in "Enfoques" supplement 
(daily-of-record "La Nacion") (12/03) "Judge Roberto Canicoba 
Corral's decision is a major event. Furthermore, it will perhaps be 
the most important judicial decision and the one having the greatest 
impact in the first six years of the 21st century regarding 
Argentine diplomatic and defense issues... 
 
"... (Argentina's) willingness to cooperate with the US on security 
issues was evident - while (the Argentine government) criticized 
Washington's 'global war on terrorism' and its military deployment 
in Iraq, it supported Washington's security policies... 
 
"... Washington and Tel Aviv could eventually manipulate Buenos 
Aires' complaint against Tehran for their own benefit. The 
interesting thing is that they have not done it so far and they are 
extremely cautious on this issue. 
 
"Argentina will have to avoid relying on any of them to handle its 
difficult situation with Iran... It is important to understand that 
2007 will be a crucial year - either the international community 
decides to live with the fact that Iran could become a nuclear power 
in the next decade, or military actions will be launched against 
Tehran with unpredictable consequences for the Middle East and the 
world." 
 
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our 
classified website at: 
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires 
 
WAYNE