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Viewing cable 06BANGKOK7484, THAI CAPITAL MARKETS FALL HEAVILY IN WAKE OF BOT

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06BANGKOK7484 2006-12-19 08:29 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Bangkok
VZCZCXYZ0005
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBK #7484 3530829
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 190829Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY BANGKOK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3510
INFO RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
UNCLAS BANGKOK 007484 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS AND EB 
TREASURY FOR OASIA 
COMMECE FOR EAP/MAC/OKSA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EFIN ECON TH
SUBJECT: THAI CAPITAL MARKETS FALL HEAVILY IN WAKE OF BOT 
CAPITAL CONTROLS 
 
REF: BANGKOK 7435 
 
1. (U) On the afternoon of December 18, the Bank of Thailand 
announced new capital control regulations in an effort to 
arrest the appreciation of the baht against the US$. Tear to 
date, the baht has appreciated about 15 percent. 
 
2. (U) The new measures announce by the BoT require all 
foreign capital inflows above US$20,000 to deposit 30 percent 
of the amount principle amount with the BoT in a non-interest 
bearing account. Investors who hold their positions for at 
least one year would have their deposit refunded to them 
after submitting evidence of the tenor of the investment to 
their commercial banks. If investors want to repatriate their 
funds before one year, they would be refunded only two-thirds 
of the deposit. Transactions completed prior to December 19 
are exempted. 
 
3. (U) The reaction of Thai capital markets was swift and 
painful. The SET Index had declined 15.67 percent as of 3:30 
p.m. representing a capital loss of about .5 trillion baht 
(US$7 billion). The large cap SET 50 Index (in which most 
foreign investment is located) was down 16.14 percent. For 
the first time in Thai stock market history, the stock 
exchange utilized its circuit breaker mechanism and the 
closed the market for trading at about 11:00 a.m. when the 
SET was down 10 percent. it re-opened 30 minutes later and, 
after attempting to recover, continued its decline. 
Meanwhile, the baht hit an intraday high of 35.99/US$ from 
yesterday's close of around 35.05/US$. In afternoon trading 
the level was around 35.6/US$, a change of around 1.6 percent 
from the previous day. 
 
4. (SBU) Bankers with whom we spoke were highly critical of 
the move. They cite the lack of coordination and consultation 
and the clear lack of understanding of how capital markets 
would react. "They panicked and went nuclear" said one local 
banker. Given the foreign inventors are estimated to control 
about 33 percent of all shares on the stock exchange and 
supply around 50 percent of daily turnover, the forced 
absence of new foreign investors and likely departure of 
existing ones will continue to severely depress capital 
markets. At 1330 today, BoT officials held a conference call 
with investment bank officials to explain their action, 
reportedly saying that the currency markets were not 
"responding quickly enough" and that they the BoT had to act 
"for the sake of the real sector." 
 
5. (SBU) Another explanation for the decision to apply 
capital controls was the sever pressure the new BoT governor 
was under by exporters whose margins were suffering from the 
appreciating baht (see reftel). Similarly Deputy Prime 
Minister and economic czar Pridiyathorn, who only last week 
told the press that exporters would simply have to adjust to 
the new strength in the baht, was rumored to be under 
pressure to name an additional economic sector minister due 
to his apparent inability to help exporters. He and Industry 
Minister Kosit this afternoon both said that they support the 
move by the BoT. 
 
6. (SBU) A senior official with the Thai Chamber of Commerce 
lamented that the damage to Thai capital markets was hardly 
worth the small reversal in the baht's appreciation. "They 
are incompetent" he said. Some are speculating that the BoT 
will be forced to reverse their decision within the next few 
weeks. There is some concern about how banks will make a 
market in the baht when all the foreigners who have sold 
shares today attempt to convert their baht to US$ three days 
from now when the trades settle. 
ARVIZU