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Viewing cable 06ABUJA3216, NIGERIA ELECTIONS SNAPSHOTS #3

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06ABUJA3216 2006-12-15 11:56 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Abuja
VZCZCXRO6283
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN
DE RUEHUJA #3216/01 3491156
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 151156Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY ABUJA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8082
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW 0016
RUEHCD/AMCONSUL CIUDAD JUAREZ 0020
RUEHOS/AMCONSUL LAGOS 5751
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 003216 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/W SILSKI AND SANNEH, INR/AA NSC FOR CHUDSON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: NIGERIA ELECTIONS SNAPSHOTS #3 
 
REF: A. ABUJA 3061 
     B. ABUJA 2917 
 
ABUJA 00003216  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
THIS CABLE IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  NOT FOR INTERNET 
DISTRIBUTION. 
 
1.  (SBU) This cable is the third in a series of elections 
snapshots designed to provide a sense of the local 
environment in the run up to the elections planned for 2007. 
In-depth information will continue to be reported in septels, 
with the snapshot format being used to convey interesting and 
pertinent anecdotes or facts.  Post welcomes any comments or 
suggestions. 
 
-------------------------- 
CONVENTIONS AND CANDIDATES 
-------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) Former Head of State Major-General Muhammadu Buhari 
launched his presidential campaign on December 8.  Buhari is 
drawing on his previous time in office, billing himself as a 
"clean" government candidate.  Most of those attending his 
campaign launch were Muslims from northern Nigeria, although 
there was a contingent from Bayelsa and Rivers states, and 
there was a significant presence of police and State Security 
Service (SSS) agents.  Supporters complained that problems 
with permits forced the venue to a smaller facility than 
originally planned and busloads of supporters were prevented 
from entering Abuja to attend the launch. 
 
3.  (SBU) The ANPP, a possible platform for General Buhari, 
has had difficulty setting a venue for it's nominating 
convention.  The convention was originally scheduled for 
December 16-17 in Eagle Square, but ANPP was forced to change 
because of the December 16 PDP convention at the same 
location.  Over the span of a few days, the convention moved 
to Jos, to Kano, then back to Eagle Square but on December 
18-19.  A well placed observer tells us the move from Kano 
was precipitated by a call from President Obasanjo to the 
governor of Kano State to say he "could not guarantee the 
security" of the convention in Kano. 
 
4.  (SBU) A faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance 
(APGA) held its convention in Enugu on December 2 and 
selected Chief Odimegwu Ojukwu as its Presidential candidate. 
 At present, the APGA has two distinct factions, the first 
being the "official" faction recognized by INEC and led by 
Chief Umeh, a loyalist to Ojukwu, and the second led by 
Chekwas Okorie, the first chairman of APGA, who is believed 
to currently be at loggerheads with both President Obasanjo 
and Ojukwu.  While the first faction selected Chief Ojukwu as 
it's candidate, members of the second faction are reportedly 
seeking an alliance with other parties and will likely back 
either Buhari or Vice President Atiku.  (NOTE: In the 2003 
elections, the APGA became the fourth party in Nigeria -- 
behind the PDP, ANPP, and AD.  Although APGA was unable to 
produce a governor at in the 2003 elections, it finally won 
Anambra State in March 2006.)  (See also Lagos Septel.) 
 
5.  (SBU) One day ahead of the December 16 PDP Convention, 
"This Day" newspaper reports Katsina State Governor Umar 
Yar'Adua and former National Security Advisor General Aliyu 
Gusau are the strongest contenders for the PDP nomination, 
calling Yar'Adua the "clear frontrunner."  The PDP Screening 
Committee announced on December 14 that it has cleared the 
following candidates for the PDP Convention: Yar'Adua, Gusau, 
former Chief of Staff Mike Akhigbe, Mrs. Sarah Jibril, 
Professor Jerry Gana, Ambassador Ralph Uweche, Senator A.P. 
Sawa, Major General Mamman Kotangora, Chief A.K. Horsefall, 
Owelle Rochas Okorocha, Brigadere-General Buba Marwa, 
Governor Sam Egwu, Governor Achike Udenwa, Governor Adamu 
Muazu, Governor Donald Duke, Governor Victor Attah, Governor 
Peter Odili, Governor Adamu Abdullahi, and Commodore Ebitu 
Ukiwe. 
 
----------- 
PARTY NEWS 
----------- 
 
6.  (SBU) The People's Salvation Party (PSP) elected Dr. 
Junnaidu Mohammed, a Russian trained neuroseurgeon and 
Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee in the Second 
Republic, as party chairman.  PSP is seen as an alternative 
platform for General Buhari in the event that things do not 
 
ABUJA 00003216  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
work out with the ANPP.  (NOTE: Given Dr. Junnaidu's 
experience, it is generally expected that he will be a strong 
organizer of the progressive community.  The party is mostly 
comprised of northern radicals and a few conservatives who 
have been marginalized by the present administration.) 
 
7.  (SBU) The Action Congress (AC) has emerged as an 
amalgamation of splinter groups from the AD, PDP, and other 
parties, with Atiku as it's likely presidential candidate. 
Its recent party congress selected a former Governor, Bisi 
Akande, as its chairman and former Steel Minister under 
Abacha Bashiru Dalhatu as its National Secretary.  (NOTE: The 
driving forces behind the AC are Vice President Atiku 
Abubakar, former North-Central PDP stalwarts such as Chief 
Solomon Lar and Audu Ogbeh, and South-West big men such as 
Governor Tinubu of Lagos State.  Also involved in the AC are 
former Alliance for Democracy (AD) governors of Oyo, Ogun, 
Ondo, and Osun states who feel betrayed over a deal with 
Obasanjo in which AD governors reportedly agreed to support 
Obasanjo's presidency in 2003 in return for assurance they 
would retain their gubernatorial posts.) 
 
-------------- 
STATE POLITICS 
-------------- 
 
8. (SBU) For the third time in three weeks, the Secretariat 
of the Delta State PDP was hit by a bomb blast in the early 
morning hours of December 12.  Two police officers were 
critically injured and there was reportedly significant fire 
damage to the complex before the blaze was brought under 
control.  Several other explosions have occurred in the state 
as well. 
 
------------------ 
VOTER REGISTRATION 
------------------ 
 
9.  (SBU) The December 14 deadline for completion of the 
voter registration has officially passed.  INEC has announced 
plans to allow voters holding a registration card from the 
2003 elections to "revalidate" their ergistration.  This 
revalidation exercise is expected to continue until late 
January, allowing a couple of weeks for compilation of the 
lists before mandated publication on February 14.  The 
process of "revalidation" of 2003 voter registration cards 
remains unclear and no information has been provided to the 
public. 
 
10.  (SBU) This Day reported on December 13 that 10 million 
of 58 million eligible voters have been registered under the 
new electronic registration system; however, most post 
contacts believe this number is inflated. 
 
11.  (SBU) On December 14, the House of Representatives 
passed amendments to the 2006 Electoral Law.  Specifically, 
the amendments extend the period for conducting voter 
registration to 45 days prior to the general election and 
explicitly outlaw the use of direct data capture machine 
registration, mandating instead that INEC begin the process 
of registration via manual registration.  The Bill, which 
passed quicky after a vote to suspend requirements for a 
first and second reading, was passed to the Senate for 
consideration. 
CAMPBELL