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Viewing cable 06TAIPEI3730, Weak KMT Campaign Allows DPP to Catch Up in Kaohsiung

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06TAIPEI3730 2006-11-02 06:20 2011-08-23 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
VZCZCXRO7061
PP RUEHCN RUEHGH
DE RUEHIN #3730/01 3060620
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 020620Z NOV 06
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2865
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 5869
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 0501
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 1493
RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 5461
RUEHGZ/AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 9680
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 7089
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003730 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AIT/W, EAP/TC, INR/EAP 
 
FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: Weak KMT Campaign Allows DPP to Catch Up in Kaohsiung 
Mayoral Race 
 
REF: A) TAIPEI 3444  B) 2005 TAIPEI 3856 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. 
 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: Negative reactions to Shih Ming-te's movement 
against President Chen and KMT campaign shortcomings in leadership 
and strategy are jeopardizing KMT candidate Huang Chun-ying's bid to 
win the December 9 Kaohsiung mayoral election.  Recent media polling 
indicates that the Kaohsiung mayoral contest is now a neck-to-neck 
race between Huang and DPP candidate Chen Chu.  Many political 
observers believe that the Kaohsiung mayoral election will have an 
important effect on the future prospects of the DPP and KMT. 
Therefore, top leaders of both parties are focusing on trying to win 
this election in hopes victory will help their party also win the 
presidency in 2008.  End Summary. 
 
2. (U) Despite earlier speculation that DPP corruption scandals 
would hand an easy victory to the KMT in Kaohsiung, recent media and 
DPP polling indicate that the mayoral election has become a 
neck-to-neck race.  An October 19 China Times poll showed that DPP 
Kaohsiung mayoral candidate Chen Chu's popularity has increased from 
24 percent to 31 percent since June whereas KMT candidate Huang 
Chun-ying's popularity has increased just two points, from 35 
percent to 37 percent, during the same period.  The poll showed a 
steady increase in Chen Chu's approval rating among DPP supporters 
and swing voters, and also indicated that the two candidates have an 
equal chance of winning the election on December 9.  A third 
candidate, the TSU's Lo Chih-ming, was supported by only 1 percent 
of polled respondents. 
 
3. (U) According to the media, several political observers 
attributed the decrease in KMT candidate Huang Chun-ying's 
popularity to negative reaction to the southern tour of Shih 
Ming-te's Anti-President Chen movement.  Shortly before the 
anti-Chen tour, Huang Chun-ying scored an impressive 42 percent 
popularity rating in the polls, which afterwards dropped to 37 
percent.  Many swing voters appear to have become more conservative 
in expressing their political positions after the altercations 
between the Anti-Bian supporters and the supporters of President 
Chen that occurred in Kaohsiung on September 29 (ref A, para 2). 
 
4. (SBU) Chan Yuan-hsiang, a senior local journalist, disputed the 
view that Shih Ming-te's southern tour was the main factor in Huang 
Chun-ying's declining popularity.  Chan told AIT/K that Huang had 
made major mistakes in choosing an incapable campaign team and 
targeting the wrong issues.  Huang's major campaign aides, including 
KMT Vice Chairman Chiang Ping-kun and Secretary-general Chen 
Shueh-sheng, are not Kaohsiung natives and lack close connections 
with local KMT factions.  According to Chan, KMT Chairman Ma 
Ying-jeou finally noticed the campaign leadership problem and asked 
former Kaohsiung mayor Wu Dun-yi to step in and campaign for Huang. 
Although Wu left Kaohsiung eight years ago, he has maintained his 
connections with local KMT factions and opinion leaders, Chan noted. 
 
 
5. (SBU) Chan asserted that the KMT plans to cooperate with 
independent city council candidates with known organized crime 
backgrounds to buy votes for the KMT mayoral candidate.  Chan 
claimed that the KMT is offering these candidates the city council 
speaker seat in exchange of their support for Huang Chun-ying. 
Local crime syndicates could guarantee a better turnout with 
vote-buying, Chan suggested, adding that tying the city council race 
to the mayoral election was a clever campaign tactic. On the other 
hand, KMT Kaohsiung Chairman Hsu Fu-ming indicated KMT Chairman Ma 
Ying-jeou would never allow vote-buying during these elections and 
that, instead, it is the DPP that has already begun to line up with 
cash in an effort to mobilize reluctant swing voters to get to the 
polls for the DPP. 
 
6. (SBU) According to Chan, in a neck-to-neck race such as the 
Kaohsiung mayoral contest, candidates should avoid using a negative 
campaign strategy because smear tactics might backfire.  Chan gave 
the example of the mayoral election between DPP candidate Frank 
Hsieh and Wu Dun-yi eight years ago, in which Wu lost his reelection 
bid to Hsieh by some 4,000 votes after using negative campaigning 
that focused on the  kidnapping/murder case of a TV celebrity's 
daughter.  Chan admitted that the Kaohsiung Metro (KRTC) scandal 
(ref B), which involved the importation of foreign laborers, might 
have some impact on DPP mayoral candidate Chen Chu, who was formerly 
Chair of the Council of Labor Affairs, but he doubted it would be a 
decisive factor in the election's outcome.  He dismissed speculation 
 
TAIPEI 00003730  002 OF 002 
 
 
that former acting Kaohsiung mayor Chen Chi-mai, currently serving 
as secretary-general of Chen Chu's campaign office, would not 
campaign wholeheartedly for Chen Chu because the KRTC scandal had 
cost his mayoral aspirations and led to his father's conviction on 
corruption charges.  With a reputation for effectiveness in 
disciplinary action, the DPP will convince all local factions to 
campaign for Chen Chu to defend its rule in Kaohsiung, Chan 
predicted. 
 
7. (SBU) Most local media observers believe that the Kaohsiung 
mayoral election is no longer just a local election, but a duel 
between the two major political parties, with important implications 
for the future of the KMT and the DPP and the outcome of the 2008 
presidential election.  Some commentators argue that if the 
Pan-Green loses the election in Kaohsiung, the leadership of 
President Chen and DPP Chairman Yu will collapse and the DPP 
decision-making body will have to be reorganized.  If the Pan-Blue 
loses, KMT Chairman Ma's leadership will be challenged, which could 
affect his bid to become president in 2008.  The Kaohsiung election 
results may also affect Shih Ming-te's movement to unseat President 
Chen.  A victory by the DPP's Chen Chu will be widely interpreted as 
a major setback for Shih's movement.  The DPP is characterizing the 
Kaohsiung mayoral election as a major battle to defend its rule, 
and, perhaps to stimulate a sense of crisis and voter enthusiasm, 
Chen Chu has even predicted that the DPP will lose both the 2007 
legislative and 2008 presidential elections if it loses Kaohsiung on 
December 9. 
 
THIELE 
 
WANG