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Viewing cable 06LIMA4271, PERU REGIONAL/MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS: ALL POLITICS IS

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06LIMA4271 2006-11-03 22:18 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Lima
VZCZCXYZ0011
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHPE #4271/01 3072218
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 032218Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY LIMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2889
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 4051
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 7044
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 9856
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ NOV QUITO 0775
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0925
RUMIAAA/CDR USCINCSO MIAMI FL
UNCLAS LIMA 004271 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PHUM PE
SUBJECT: PERU REGIONAL/MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS: ALL POLITICS IS 
(AGAIN) LOCAL 
 
REF: A. LIMA 3693 
     B. LIMA 2222 
 
Sensitive but Unclassified.  Please handle accordingly. 
 
-------- 
Summary: 
-------- 
 
1.  (SBU) Peru holds regional, provincial and district 
elections on November 19.  Former presidential candidate 
Ollanta Humala's Peruvian Nationalist Party (PNP) has 
floundered and local interests have reasserted themselves. 
Voters appear apathetic and weary from the electoral season. 
President Alan Garcia has announced his eagerness to work 
with whomever wins, confident that the GOP's control over 
funds will keep Regional Presidents in line.  Lima Mayor Luis 
Castaneda should cruise to a landslide re-election.  End 
Summary. 
 
2.  (U) On November 19, approximately 14,000 candidates will 
compete for 25 regional presidencies and for mayorships in 
194 provinces and more than 1,800 districts.  There are no 
expectations of significant problems or serious fraud.  Voter 
interest in the elections is low, the result of too many 
candidates and an exhausting pair of elections in April and 
June. 
 
----------------- 
Humala Flames Out 
----------------- 
 
3.  (U) In the wake of radical, pro-Chavez presidential 
candidate Ollanta Humala's impressive showing in June (Ref 
B), many observers had feared that Humala's followers might 
sweep regional and municipal elections, particularly in his 
base area in the south.  Such worries have proven unfounded 
as Humala's movement has floundered and local forces have 
reasserted themselves.  Peru's combination of weak political 
parties and strong local and regional movements led by local 
caudillos presages continued political fragmentation at the 
local and regional level.  Most regional presidents and 
provincial and district mayors will win elections with far 
less than 50 percent of the vote. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
APRA Losing Ground: Garcia Unconcerned 
-------------------------------------- 
 
4.  (U) APRA is not expected to win as many regional 
presidencies as they did in the last elections.  (In 2002, 
APRA won 12 of 25 regional presidencies.)  Some polls show 
APRA likely to win only two regional presidencies and not 
doing particularly well in provincial and municipal races. 
President Garcia is reportedly unconcerned.  He has made no 
effort to help APRA candidates, despite his high approval 
ratings.  Some observers say Garcia would prefer to work with 
independent candidates -- particularly Regional Presidents 
who will depend on the central government for financing -- 
rather than suffer the fallout from underperforming APRA 
leaders. 
 
5.  (U) Cocaleros are fielding mayoral candidates for eight 
districts in Apurimac, the provinces of Huanta and La Mar, 
the Regional Presidency of Ayacucho and for several 
mayorships in the Apurimac and Ene River Valley (VRAE).  The 
cocaleros are divided between those led by Nelson Palomino 
(VRAE), Iburcio Morales (Monzon), and by other provincial 
leaders.  These divisions should diminish their potential 
impact.  The fight between Palomino and Morales has also 
eclipsed any influence that Ollanta Humala had in this sector. 
 
--------------------------- 
Comment: Winners and Losers 
--------------------------- 
 
6.  (SBU) Despite general political apathy, Peru's 
regional/municipal elections will produce winners and losers. 
 
 
--Lima Mayor Luis Castaneda should cruise to a landslide 
re-election.  His closest competitor, evangelical pastor and 
National Restoration Party leader Humberto Lay, scores 
between 10-15 percent in most polls.  All other candidates, 
 
including those from APRA and Humala's PNP, maintain minimal 
support.  Castaneda has solidified his base for a possible 
run at the Presidency in 2011.  Lay is holding on to support 
that he carved out in the April first-round presidential 
elections. 
 
--APRA has lost some ground in regional and municipal races. 
We think that President Garcia is putting the best face on 
this by professing unconcern.  In the end, Garcia knows that 
he can keep Regional Presidents in check because the central 
government provides most of their budgets under 
decentralization. 
 
--Ollanta Humala is the biggest loser in the entire process. 
His PNP has split from its former coalition partner, the 
Union por el Peru (UPP) Party, and has had problems fielding 
candidates in many areas.  Compounding his difficulties, two 
weeks ago, Humala announced that he was forming a new 
political movement, GANA Peru (Win Peru), further confusing 
both his followers and observers. 
STRUBLE