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Viewing cable 06ADDISABABA3120, ETHIOPIA: LOCAL ELECTIONS ON THE HORIZON - IS

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06ADDISABABA3120 2006-11-28 13:11 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Addis Ababa
VZCZCXRO0160
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHDS #3120/01 3321311
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 281311Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3445
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 ADDIS ABABA 003120 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E, AF/RSA 
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: LOCAL ELECTIONS ON THE HORIZON - IS 
ETHIOPIA READY? 
 
REF: ADDIS ABABA 03050 
 
1. (U) ACTION REQUEST: Please see paragraph 19. 
 
2. (SBU) SUMMARY  Still working through the aftermath of the 
disputed federal elections in 2005, Ethiopia now focuses on 
important local elections in early 2007. Voter anger and 
candidate intimidation are hurdles to a successful campaign, 
as is a potential boycott by opposition parties.  A mountain 
of administrative tasks remain to be completed to prepare for 
30 million voters to select among thousands of possible 
candidates. Despite these challenges, the National Election 
Board (NEB) and political parties recognize the importance of 
these elections and the potential for them to be a tangible 
step forward in Ethiopia's democratization process. 
International support is critical at this stage to fund voter 
education, NEB capacity-building and election observation. 
International engagement will also be needed to influence the 
re-opening of space for opposition campaigning and encourage 
opposition participation (see paragraph 19 for action 
request).  Finally, the fate of those detained in connection 
with political violence in November 2005 will be a key 
determinant of public confidence in 2007 elections.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
3. (SBU) During the week of November 13, Poloff met with 
representatives of the National Election Board of Ethiopia 
(NEB) Tesfaye Menegesha, Secretary General, and Mekonnen 
Wondimu, Director of the Office of the Registrar.  Separate 
meetings were also held with representatives of all major 
political parties in Ethiopia: Shiferaw Jarso, Ethiopian 
Peoples, Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF); Lidetu 
Ayalew, United Ethiopian Democratic Party ) Medhin 
(UEDP-Medhin); Bulcha Dimeksa, Oromo Federalist Democratic 
Movement (OFDM); Dr. Merera Gudina and Beyene Petros, United 
Ethiopian Democratic Forces (UEDF); and Temesgen Zewdie, 
Coalition for Unity and Democracy Party (CUDP).  These 
meetings were intended to gain insight into the anticipated 
local elections in 2007 and to learn how the NEB and 
political parties are currently preparing. 
 
----------------------------------- 
COMPLEX LOCAL GOVERNMENT STRUCTURES 
----------------------------------- 
 
4. (SBU) The last local elections took place in 2001 and are 
ordinarily scheduled to take place every five years. 
However, due to the unstable domestic political environment 
following the national and regional parliamentary elections 
in 2005, the local elections for 2006 were postponed. 
 
5. (SBU) Local elections are held to choose representatives 
for the city, kebele and woreda councils.  Additionally, in 
the Southern Nations and Nationalities Peoples Region of 
Ethiopia (SNNPR), elections are also held for zonal councils. 
 In all other regions zonal councils are appointed by the 
regional parliament, rather than selected directly by the 
voters.  The hierarchy of governmental authority in Ethiopia 
is as follows: Federal, regional, zonal, woreda, kebele.  The 
authority of city councils varies depending mostly on the 
population of the city.  For example, the city council of 
Addis Ababa (a special administrative zone) has authority 
equivalent to that of a regional parliament.  Smaller cities 
have authority that lies between a woreda and a zone (though 
the mayor will answer directly to the regional parliament). 
Therefore, in one local election, a voter may vote separately 
for city, kebele, woreda and zonal (in SNNPR) representatives. 
 
6. (SBU) Within Ethiopia, there are 9 regions, in addition to 
the special administrative areas of the cities of Addis Ababa 
and Dire Dawa.  Each region, other than the special city 
administrations, contains a varying number of zones, woredas 
and kebeles, depending mostly on the population of that 
region.  There are a total of 65 zones in Ethiopia, including 
13 in the Southern Nationalities Region.  Each zone contains 
anywhere between 5 and 22 woredas, depending on population, 
as each woreda is made up of approximately 100,000 people. 
There are roughly 630 woredas in Ethiopia.  Within each 
woreda, there are between 20 and 50 kebeles.  Boundaries of 
kebeles, like zones, are designated largely on administrative 
convenience and population densities.  For example, kebeles 
in urban centers may contain up to 5,000 people, whereas 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00003120  002 OF 005 
 
 
those in some rural areas may have very few people. 
 
7. (SBU) During the May 2005 Federal and Regional 
parliamentary elections, voters in Addis Ababa also elected 
the Addis Ababa city council (as it is the equivalent of a 
regional council).  All but one of the seats on the 138 
person Addis Ababa council was won by the opposition CUD 
coalition.  However, many of these elected council members 
refused to take up their positions, leading to the 
installation of an interim council by the GoE.  The mandate 
of the interim council was set for one year, which expires in 
April 2007.  Therefore, the NEB plans to also hold Addis 
Ababa city council elections during the same time as the 
other national local elections. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
NEB HAS 5 MONTHS TO PREPARE FOR 30 MILLION VOTERS 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
8. (SBU) NEB Secretary General Tesfaye informed Poloff that 
the NEB is planning for the first round of local elections to 
take place on the April 29, 2007.  During this round, 
elections for all woreda councils in Ethiopia will take 
place, as well as the zonal councils in the Southern 
Nationalities Region, and the city council elections for 
Addis Ababa.  One week later, on May 6, the elections for 
kebele in all regions and city councils (outside of Addis 
Ababa) will take place.  Though the NEB is currently making 
preparations for these dates, Tesfaye pointed out that these 
dates may be changed by the NEB's incoming board of 
directors.  (NOTE: The outgoing board of directors' mandate 
expired on November 9.  The appointment of a new board is 
constitutionally the responsibility of the Prime Minister, 
subject to approval by Parliament.  Senior ruling party 
officials have promised to consult the opposition on their 
appointments.  To date, no new board has been presented to 
Parliament. END NOTE.) 
 
9. (SBU) Mekonnen Wondimu, the Director of the Office of the 
Registrar at the NEB, is in charge of all technical 
preparations for the elections, including voter and candidate 
registration.  Mekonnen explained to Poloff that currently 
his department is preparing voter registration materials. 
These materials, once completed, will be distributed to the 
30,000 polling stations (approximately one for 1,000-1,500 
eligible voters) around Ethiopia.  Voter registration must 
take place 3 to 4 months before the date of the election. 
Prior to the completion of the voter registration, candidate 
registration must also be completed, and typically lasts one 
month.  (NOTE: According to these regulations, and by 
Mekonnen's estimate, candidate registration may begin as 
early as mid-December if the election takes place on April 
29.  END NOTE)  Once the voter and candidate registration is 
completed, information is collected centrally.  At that point 
voter registration cards are printed and distributed back to 
the polling stations.  Also, ballots and explanatory posters 
are printed using symbols associated with parties and 
candidates.  Mekonnen explained that this must be done due to 
the low literacy rates in Ethiopia. 
 
10. (SBU) Mekonnen said that the NEB is anticipating 32 
million voters nation-wide for this election, representing an 
85-90 percent turnout.  Further, in discussing candidate 
selection, he explained that each kebele is divided into 10 
constituencies.  A political party puts forward on average 10 
candidates per constituency.  Therefore, in each kebele, 
depending on the number of political parties competing, there 
may be several hundred candidates running for a kebele 
council composed of 100 people (on average).  Additionally, 
each kebele elects 3 representatives to be represented in the 
woreda council.  Therefore, there may be dozens of woreda 
candidates to choose from.  The same system is used to elect 
the zonal council in the Southern Nations Region (i.e. each 
woreda elects 3 representatives for the zonal council).  City 
councils also vary in size and number of candidates based on 
the population of the city.  To further complicate the 
selection of candidate, a voter may pick and choose 
representatives for every level from among various parties, 
as representatives are not selected on a strictly party 
basis.  Therefore, the NEB must produce ballots and 
explanatory materials for every level of local election to 
allow voters (many illiterate) to select among the many 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00003120  003 OF 005 
 
 
hundreds of candidates.  Mekonnen was confident that the NEB 
can produce these materials within one month following the 
registration of voters and candidates. 
 
11. (SBU) Following the difficult task of producing materials 
for the elections, the NEB must select, train and manage the 
staff each of the 30,000 polling stations.  Each station will 
be staffed with 5 NEB temporary employees to manage the 
voting activity.  (NOTE: Those selected by the NEB to 
administer elections are chosen primarily from among local 
government employees. END NOTE.) In addition, there will be 5 
community elders at each station to act as impartial 
observers.  Further to this, each competing political party 
is entitled to have one observer per polling station.  For 
NEB employees and observers, the NEB will manage a 2-day 
training module in preparation of the elections.  Following 
the completion of the elections, votes are counted at each 
polling station, and then aggregated at the relevant central 
level (i.e. kebele, woreda, etc.) to be tallied.  Mekonnen 
said that he anticipates the results of the elections to be 
available the following day.  He said that the NEB, dependent 
on international donor support, plans to implement a radio 
campaign of voter education prior to the election, as well as 
contracting NGO,s to undertake education activities at a 
local level.  He also said that international observers would 
be welcome to participate, so long as they have been properly 
registered. (NOTE: The GoE has not yet made a formal call for 
international observation.  EPRDF whip Shiferaw Jarso told 
Poloffs that he anticipated observation by local groups, but 
did not commit on whether international observation would be 
invited.  END NOTE.) 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
RULING PARTY READY, OPPOSITION STILL IN THE DARK 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
12. (SBU) Shiferaw Jarso, parliamentary whip for the ruling 
EPRDF party, expressed confidence that the elections would 
take place without complications and said that his party is 
actively canvassing candidates in preparation.  He feels that 
the elections will be fair and all political parties will be 
free to compete.  He was unsure of the date of the election, 
as the new NEB has not yet been named.  He assured Emboffs 
that PM Meles would be presenting a list of candidates to 
opposition party leaders soon and that once agreed upon and 
confirmed in parliament, the new board would officially 
announce the dates.  In response to Pol-Econ Counselor's 
concern about opposition parties' ability to campaign and 
maintain local party offices, Shiferaw referred to the recent 
agreement among parties to adhere to the rule of law, saying 
there will be no interference from the EPRDF.  He also said 
that the issue of party financing will be addressed in 
inter-party dialogue, but will depend on opposition parties' 
willingness to adhere to the rule of law agreement.  (NOTE: 
Shiferaw singled out Dr. Merera of the UEDF and Temesgen of 
the CUDP as party leaders currently not adhering to the 
agreement.  END NOTE.)  In discussing technicalities of the 
elections, Shiferaw told Emboffs that city councils in 
Ethiopia are elected directly by the voters, but the city 
administrations, including mayors, are appointed by the 
regional parliaments.  (NOTE: This would create a potential 
for significant political conflict, as all regional 
parliaments are controlled by the EPRDF.  END NOTE)  However, 
this was refuted later by the NEB's Mekonnen, who said that 
the city administration and mayor are in fact appointed by 
the elected city councils. 
 
13. (SBU)  Opposition parties expressed serious concerns 
about the local elections, saying that both opposition party 
and voter participation may be very limited.  Though 
opposition party leaders were aware that the GoE planned to 
have local elections in 2007, none had been informed by the 
NEB about the suggested date of the election and seemed 
surprised when informed by Poloff.  Another common reaction 
among party leaders was their belief in the importance of 
controlling the local government councils.  Though they told 
Poloff that the opposition does not currently control any 
kebeles, woredas, zones or cities in Ethiopia, the political 
gain for their parties in achieving even some success in 
these elections would be tremendous.  Beyene of the UEDF went 
so far to say he "would almost rather be a woreda 
administrator than a federal MP, (because) that is where the 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00003120  004 OF 005 
 
 
real decisions and impact are made."  As an example, he noted 
that decisions regarding distribution of the "Protection of 
Basic Services" (PBS) development funds are made at a local 
level and can make a significant impact on the population. 
Dr. Merera pointed out that, "policies may be made at the 
federal or regional level, but the implementation is done at 
the local level."  He said that many policies at the federal 
and regional level are not necessarily undesirable; the 
problem is that the implementation at the local level is 
always determined by the ruling party.  All party leaders 
also stressed that political intimidation and human rights 
abuses would be drastically reduced if local governments had 
opposition participation, as a single party would not be able 
to dictate the day-to-day national and local administrations. 
 
 
14. (SBU) Opposition party leaders stressed two key problems 
that will likely prevent a successful election: inability to 
identify candidates and voter participation.  In both of 
these restrictions, they pointed either to anger or fear as 
major barriers.  Among the leaders, Lidetu of UEDP-Medhin was 
the most positive, saying "boycotting of the elections is not 
a good strategy and our party will certainly participate if 
possible."  He reported that he is free to move around and 
meet with party representatives in his home Amhara region. 
However, he said that in his discussions with voters and 
party members, nearly all are discouraged and not willing to 
participate in the upcoming elections following the 
circumstances surrounding the May 2005 elections.  He said 
that in order to overcome the overwhelming apathy among those 
in his party, the planned agenda items for the inter-party 
dialogue must proceed quickly.  Specifically, he highlighted 
that: 1) NEB board discussions must reach agreement by all 
parties, thus ensuring an impartial NEB board; 2) the media 
law must be agreed upon, which would give the opposition 
parties some access to the press; and 3) public financing 
should be in place in order to ensure that parties can be 
active in campaigning and organizing.  He said that he is 
anxiously awaiting the resumption of these inter-party 
discussions, and if the points are agreed upon, he is 
confident that he can work with his party to motivate voters 
and candidates. 
 
15. (SBU) Less positive were Temesgen of the CUDP and leaders 
from the Oromo Region, Dr. Merera Gudina of the UEDF and 
Bulcha Dimeksa of the OFDM.  They complained that their party 
members continue to be harassed, jailed and beaten by GoE 
forces in their areas and that, as a result, voters and 
potential candidates are afraid to actively participate. 
They stressed that this is particularly true for local 
elections, where international attention is likely to be less 
than it was for the 2005 federal elections.  Bulcha went so 
far as to say that the OFDM will not participate unless they 
know international observers will be allowed.  All three 
party leaders echoed Lidetu's concern that the agenda of the 
inter-party dialogue be completed.  They felt that if these 
issues were resolved and if the EPRDF and opposition parties 
were able to agree upon a joint public statement encouraging 
voters to participate and party leaders were allowed to visit 
their constituencies to canvass candidates, that they would 
have a successful election and take many kebele, woreda and 
city councils. 
 
16. (SBU)  Though Beyene had many of the same concerns as the 
other party leaders, such as local office closures, inability 
to motivate voters and candidates, etc., he offered a broader 
view than other leaders.  He pointed out that the ruling 
EPRDF party recognizes these elections are important for both 
political control, as well as international legitimacy.  With 
that in mind, he expressed some confidence that, while the 
election may not be entirely free and fair, the opposition 
will likely be given enough space to make some additional 
gains.  He reiterated that in order to do so, the EPRDF must 
immediately reopen the inter-party dialogue and address the 
same points made by the other party leaders.  Regardless of 
the amount of political space granted, Beyene expressed 
concern at the NEB's ability to prepare for and administer 
such an extensive election for late April, particularly in 
his home SNNPR. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
COMMENT: DONOR INVOLVEMENT ESSENTIAL IN NEAR TERM 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00003120  005 OF 005 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
17. (SBU) The likelihood of success of the 2007 local 
elections in Ethiopia will likely be determined in the weeks 
ahead, as several key steps must be taken immediately in 
order to promote wide participation and legitimacy.  The 
first and foremost of these is the nomination of the board of 
directors for the NEB, a controversial body involved in the 
post-election disputes in 2005.  Though all the opposition 
party leaders are under the impression that the ruling party 
will consult with them prior to the nomination of board 
members, Shiferaw made it clear that it is the PM's 
responsibility to nominate them, subject only to 
parliamentary approval.  Ensuring that a widely respected 
board is put forth is critical for both political parties and 
voters.  Beyond this, all parties are also insisting that two 
other key agenda items be decided: the media law and party 
financing.  However, action on these issues will likely 
require several weeks of negotiation.  Parties are quickly 
approaching the anticipated period of candidate registration 
and an agreement on these points is needed if all parties are 
to begin to participate in the election process in good 
faith.  The fate of those detained in connection with the 
November 2005 political violence will also be a large 
determinant of public confidence in the 2007 local elections. 
 Continued detention of CUD leaders and other will make 
popular and international acceptance of new elections 
difficult. 
 
18. (SBU) Further to the political complexities, the NEB 
faces an extremely daunting task of preparing voter materials 
for over 30 million voters to select among thousands of 
candidates, not to mention the dire need for voter education. 
 Multilateral donor involvement in this effort hinges on the 
appointment of the new NEB board, whose approval will be 
required for UNDP coordination on election assistance.  In 
the meantime, bi-lateral efforts from donors are under 
discussion, both to assist the NEB in election preparation, 
as well as to push the GoE to move forward with inter-party 
dialogue. 
 
19. (SBU) ACTION REQUEST: Post's ability to fund both 
multi-lateral and bilateral electoral support is dependent on 
approval of the FY 2006 ESF proposal.  This proposal included 
$1,650,000 for capacity building and institutional reform 
efforts for the NEB, and specific activities focused on the 
2007 local elections, such as support civic and voter 
education, political party capacity building, training for 
candidates, elections monitoring, and improved vote counting 
and complaints investigation and adjudication procedures. 
Once the questions and concerns laid out above are addressed, 
donors will move rapidly to put in place a comprehensive 
electoral support program.  Post requests approval of FY 2006 
ESF proposal. 
YAMAMOTO