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Viewing cable 06SEOUL3670, OCTOBER 25 BY-ELECTIONS: ANOTHER DEFEAT FOR RULING

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06SEOUL3670 2006-10-26 06:17 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Seoul
VZCZCXYZ0006
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHUL #3670/01 2990617
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 260617Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY SEOUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0950
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 1419
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 1513
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/COMUSKOREA J5 SEOUL KOR
RHMFIUU/COMUSKOREA SCJS SEOUL KOR
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC//OSD/ISA/EAP//
RHHMUNA/USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI
UNCLAS SEOUL 003670 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KS
SUBJECT: OCTOBER 25 BY-ELECTIONS: ANOTHER DEFEAT FOR RULING 
PARTY 
 
1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: In another crushing defeat for the ruling 
Uri Party, the two National Assembly seats up for grabs in 
the October 25 by-elections went overwhelmingly to the 
opposition.  To add insult to injury, in Incheon, the Uri 
Party candidate, a close friend of Uri Chairman Kim Geun-tae, 
came in third in the election as the minor Democratic Labor 
Party (DLP) candidate came in second.  The election results 
leave the Uri Party with the most seats in the National 
Assembly, but little else.  As each defeat piles up, the Uri 
leadership continues to lose standing as the jockeying for 
party realignment, likely to occur in late December or early 
January, 2007, intensifies.  During this time of heightened 
tension on the Peninsula, the voter turnout was higher than 
in recent by-elections. END SUMMARY. 
 
INCHEON ASSEMBLY SEAT-GNP WINS BIG 
---------------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) Long-time political hand Lee Won-bok ran and won in 
Incheon, known for its history of labor movement and record 
of poor economic development.  He replaced a Uri Party 
lawmaker who lost his seat after being convicted of illegal 
fundraising.  Lee garnered 57.7 percent of the vote compared 
with 18.5 percent for the DLP candidate.  The Uri candidate, 
a former Blue House aide and long time colleague and friend 
of Uri Chairman Kim Geun-tae, Park Woo-sup, came in a distant 
third with 12.3 percent of the vote. 
 
3.  (SBU) According to Uri lawmaker Yum Dong-yun, who took 
time from his campaigning to talk with poloff in Park's 
campaign office on October 24, while victory was never 
expected in the race, Kim Geun-tae's gaffe on October 20 in 
Kaesong sealed candidate Park's fate.  Candidate Park Woo-sup 
told poloff that while he knew there was not a strong chance 
for winning the seat, it was up to him to work to get the 
best result for the party.  On October 24, he said that 
through personal efforts, he hoped to make the race 
competitive.  His efforts were not enough and in fact many 
attributed his personal relationship to Kim as a contributing 
factor in the embarrassing loss. 
 
4.  (SBU) On October 24, there were several Uri lawmakers in 
Incheon stumping for Park and Park himself was hoarse from 
his efforts.  He told poloff he was committed to campaign 
till midnight, when the campaign period officially ended. 
Contrasting with the hopeless mood in the Uri camp, upon 
visiting the GNP candidate on October 24, poloff found an 
entirely different atmosphere.  GNP Chairman Kang Jae-sup 
came to Incheon and Kang, candidate Lee and several other GNP 
officials campaigned until 6pm and then decided to call it a 
day and dine together to celebrate.  In several campaign 
speeches poloff heard, Lee made the expected pledges to do 
his best, while Kang struck a stronger stance, asking voters 
to "strike out at President Roh" with their vote for Lee on 
October 25. 
 
5.  (SBU) Lee will likely take his seat in the Assembly on 
November 2 or 3 and he told poloff on October 26 that his 
victory showed that the people of Incheon felt that the Roh 
government had "no answers" to the various economic ills they 
faced.  He added that the through the cabinet reshuffle the 
Roh government should take full responsibility for its 
failures and change policy, not just the people who make the 
policy. 
 
HAENAM-JINDO: DEMOCRATIC PARTY STRONG 
------------------------------------- 
 
6.  (SBU) In Haenam and Jindo, where the former incumbent was 
kicked out for illegal wiretapping, the opposition Democratic 
Party (DP) candidate Choi Il-byung, a professor at Daebul 
University in Mokpo, beat the Uri Party candidate by a large 
margin with 62.5 percent of the vote.  Leading Uri Party 
lawmaker Choi Jae-cheon who hails from Haenam and was in the 
region campaigning on October 24 told poloff that the result 
was expected and that to keep the DP from attacking the Uri 
Party in the coming months, many in the Uri Party were 
pushing to make a quick move to join with the DP.  The Uri 
Party held an emergency breakfast meeting on October 26 to 
discuss such a move. 
 
7.  (SBU) DP's Deputy Chair Shin Joong-shik told poloff on 
October 26 that the convincing Assembly victory coupled with 
 
the first non-Jeolla victory in Seoul in the July 26 
by-election meant that DP was "on the rise" and that Uri was 
"about to collapse."  He said that political party 
restructuring would occur in December and the merger should 
be with DP as the lead partner since they had a convincing 
base in the Jeolla Provinces and also a foothold in Seoul. 
The newly elected Choi echoed Shin's remarks and told poloff 
on October 26 that his victory showed that the DP would be 
capable of leading the way in any realignment and the DP was 
a true national party. 
 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
8.  (SBU) The Roh government and the ruling Uri Party are 
reeling from non-stop electoral defeats and there is no end 
in sight.  The results of this by-election mean that the DP 
should be able to dictate more of the terms of the likely 
merger with the Uri Party.  At this point, after five 
straight by-election defeats, the Uri Party can not claim 
strong support anywhere in Korea while the DP has solidified 
its hold over the southwest Jeolla region.  That said, Uri 
leadership knows they have dwindling support but will work to 
play their 141 seats in the Assembly to their advantage. 
 
9.  (SBU) The October 25 by-elections will further embolden 
the opposition GNP in the National Assembly.  On foreign 
policy, Roh's candidates to replace FM Ban Ki-moon, DefMin 
Yoon Kwang-oong and Unification Minister Lee Jong-seok will 
face stronger resistance in the National Assembly hearings, 
which is why the Blue House will probably end up naming 
tested bureaucrats to some of these posts. 
VERSHBOW