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Viewing cable 06PRAGUE1356, CZECH SENATE RACE - ODS WINS BIG, AS EXPECTED, BUT

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06PRAGUE1356 2006-10-30 15:32 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Prague
VZCZCXRO4164
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHPG #1356/01 3031532
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 301532Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY PRAGUE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8166
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PRAGUE 001356 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/NCE EFICHTE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EZ
SUBJECT: CZECH SENATE RACE - ODS WINS BIG, AS EXPECTED, BUT 
POLITICAL PICTURE STILL UNCLEAR 
 
 
1.SUMMARY: The right-of-center Civic Democrats (ODS) were the 
undeniable winners of the October 27-28 Senate elections in 
the Czech Republic.  The victory follows the ODS triumph in 
local elections October 20-21, and the party's first-place 
finish in the general election June 2-3. Klaus is expected to 
ask ODS to begin talks on the next government this week. 
Party Chairman Mirek Topolanek, whose government failed in a 
vote of confidence October 3, has been strengthened by the 
victories in the local and Senate races, making it harder for 
President Klaus to entrust anyone else with the job of 
leading talks on the next government. The nation's second 
most popular party, the Social Democrats (CSSD), also picked 
up five more Senate seats, giving ODS and CSSD constitutional 
majorities in both houses.  ODS continues to argue in favor 
of an ODS-led temporary caretaker government.  CSSD continues 
to lobby for a grand coalition with ODS.  Each side is 
claiming the election results support its position, laying 
the groundwork for the upcoming week of crucial but difficult 
negotiations.  END SUMMARY 
 
2. BIG GET BIGGER.  The second round runoff for 27 of the 81 
Senate seats ended Saturday with the Civic Democrats (ODS) 
the clear winner, taking 14 of the seats and narrowly missing 
out on two more. The victory gives ODS 41 of the 81 seats, a 
clear majority, and means ODS itself would be able to veto 
any bills coming out of the lower house. The Social Democrats 
(CSSD), who come in second in opinion polls, won six seats, 
bringing the party's total in the Senate to 12. CSSD is 
claiming a victory of sorts, pointing out that it beat ODS in 
6 of the 11 head-to-head contests. ODS and CSSD, the nation's 
two dominant large parties, added a combined nine seats and 
now have constitutional three-fifths majorities in both 
houses of parliament and could alter election laws to favor 
big parties, something the smaller parties are concerned 
about. The big parties deny they have any intention to do 
this. 
 
3. The Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) who were defending 7 of 
the 27 seats, won four, lowering their Senate total to 11. 
In spite of this, ODS and KDU-CSL, which have recently been 
allies on the political right, together have enough votes in 
the two chambers to re-elect President Klaus, who will run 
again in 2008. 
 
4. KDU-CSL was involved in two of the weekend's more 
interesting races.  One involved Senate Vice-President Petr 
Pithart.  Pithart, a former Prime Minister, President of the 
Senate, and presidential candidate, won by just 24 votes out 
of 24,100 cast, a victory margin of less than one-tenth of 
one percent.  The ODS candidate who lost to Pithart 
graciously accepted defeat and chose not to demand a recount. 
Another interesting race involved Jiri Cunek, the Christian 
Democrat mayor of Vsetin who ran on a campaign listing as one 
of his principal achievements getting the Roma out of his 
city. Roma activists had even tried to get former inhabitants 
back to the city just to vote against Cunek. Cunek took the 
highest percentage of votes of any of the Senate candidates, 
more than 71% of the 21,070 cast in his district.  The strong 
showing will increase the odds that he will make a run for 
the currently vacant chairmanship of his party when it meets 
December 7. 
 
5.  AND SMALL STAY SMALL.   The Communists had three 
candidates in the second-round runoffs. The Greens had one. 
Neither party won any seats, a reflection of the fact that 
small parties can achieve results under a system of 
proportional representation as is used in the lower house, 
but fare badly in a first-past-the-post system, as is used in 
the Senate.  The three smallest parties in parliament; the 
Communists, the Christian Democrats and the Greens have 45 of 
the 200 seats in the lower house (22.5%), but have only 14 of 
the 81 seats in the upper house (17%). 
 
6.  Foreign Minister Sasha Vondra, who ran as an independent 
for ODS, won his runoff against a former CSSD MP, 58.6% to 
41.4%.  He is allowed to hold a cabinet post and a senate 
seat simultaneously.  Vondra is part of the Topolanek ODS 
government which resigned October 11 but was asked to stay on 
until the next government is formed.  If and when Vondra 
leaves the Foreign Minister post, he would be a strong 
candidate for the head of the Senate's Foreign Affairs 
Committee. Eliska Haskova Coolidge, who had worked at the 
White House and the State Department for many years before 
returning to the Czech Republic, lost her race against a 
local CSSD mayor 42% to 58%. 
 
7.  COMMENT. The Senate results show the increasing strength 
of Czech center-right voters.  They also call attention to 
 
PRAGUE 00001356  002 OF 002 
 
 
the increasing strength of each of the two large parties, ODS 
and CSSD, relative to the smaller parties. Finally, the 
results show the Senate is still considered far less 
important than the lower house.  Turnout for the 2nd round of 
the Senate vote was 20.7%, as compared to 64.5% in the June 
2-3 general election.  In the previous two Senate elections, 
the body was seen as a counterbalance to the lower house and 
a way of providing gravitas and sense to the vitriolic 
partisan debates that take place there. But only three 
independents were elected to the Senate this round. As the 
two large parties increase their share of the upper house, it 
begins to look more and more like an extension of the 
politics of the lower house, only with far less popular 
support. END COMMENT 
GRABER