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Viewing cable 06MEXICO5771, HOPE GROWS FOR A NEGOTIATED SOLUTION TO OAXACA

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06MEXICO5771 2006-10-11 18:34 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Mexico
VZCZCXRO6151
RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #5771/01 2841834
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 111834Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3619
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHMFIUU/CDR USNORTHCOM
RHMFIUU/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUEAHLA/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 005771 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV MX
SUBJECT: HOPE GROWS FOR A NEGOTIATED SOLUTION TO OAXACA 
CRISIS 
 
REF: MEXICO 5567 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: Recent developments in the Oaxaca crisis 
point toward a possible easing of tensions and an eventual 
political solution that would result in the return of law 
enforcement to the state, an increase in teachers' salaries, 
and the resumption of public school classes.  A Senate 
committee has agreed to pursue a process that could 
conceivably lead to the dismissal of Oaxaca governor Ulises 
Ruiz, taking some of the steam away from the state teachers' 
union and Oaxaca People's Popular Assembly (APPO).  However, 
timing is vague and even if the committee recommends the 
dissolution of the governor's powers there is no assurance 
the full Senate would vote to remove him.  In Mexico City, 
thousands of Oaxacan protesters who arrived by foot on 
October 9 have so far conducted a largely peaceful protest 
directed at the Secretariat of Government and Senate.  End 
summary. 
 
2. (SBU) On October 9, Secretary of Government Carlos Abascal 
met with Oaxacan protest and state government leaders in the 
eighth round of mediation efforts, announcing afterwards that 
a tentative agreement had been reached regarding the return 
of law enforcement to Oaxaca City.  Although the protest 
movement's diffuse leadership rejected the deployment of 
Federal Preventive Police (PFP) to Oaxaca City, it appeared 
open to lifting the blockades and ceding control of the city 
to municipal and state police officers under the direction of 
the Secretary of Government.  Under the agreement, state 
authorities would also release several jailed protesters, 
withdraw arrest warrants for others, remove certain security 
officials from office, implement a series of political 
reforms, and raise teachers' salaries over time.  The protest 
leaders are scheduled to meet with their respective 
constituents in Oaxaca this week to decide whether to accept 
the proposal and consider returning striking teachers to 
class, perhaps starting next week. 
 
3. (SBU) On October 10, Senate Interior Committee members 
from the three major political parties met with APPO leaders 
and agreed to send a delegation to Oaxaca to examine whether 
the state government has lost its ability to govern.  The 
committee would technically be able to recommend dissolving 
the governor's powers.  However, a committee staff member 
told Poloff that no date has been set for the delegation's 
trip or the length of time it would take to issue the opinion 
needed for the full Senate's consideration.  In order to 
remove Ruiz, the Senate will need to vote with a two-thirds 
majority.  Currently, the PRI faction is backing Ruiz, the 
PRD is calling for his ouster, and the PAN appears divided on 
the issue and could represent a swing vote.  In response to 
the committee's decision to examine governability in Oaxaca, 
Ulises Ruiz announced he would no longer participate in talks 
with the Secretary of Government. 
 
4. (SBU) Comment: For the first time in the nearly five 
month-old Oaxaca conflict, there is hope for a negotiated 
solution, although we are not there yet.  The Senate 
committee decision to consider whether there are grounds for 
removing the Oaxaca governor strengthens Abascal's hand, 
although his latest proposal could stumble without greater 
assurance that Ruiz actually will be ousted.  The federal 
government may well be biding its time, trying to energize 
the negotiations without forcing Ruiz's removal before his 
two year mark in office (Note: If removed before December 1, 
state elections would be called, an outcome the PRI would 
strongly resist, as they could open the door to the election 
of a PRD governor.  If Ruiz is removed after December 1, the 
Congress would appoint his successor and a deal could be 
struck assuring the appointment of a PRIista. End note).  The 
protest leaders can be expected to offer a counterproposal in 
the coming days that will continue to demand Ruiz's removal, 
and the process will likely inch slowly forward as the Senate 
considers its next steps.  It is a hopeful sign that the 
teachers' union and APPO leaders are pursuing the governor's 
removal through institutional means and that the Mexico City 
protests have been largely peaceful.  However, if the 
protesters lose hope that the Senate will remove Ruiz, they 
are likely to pursue more aggressive tactics, in which case 
pressure on the federal government to intervene with force 
will quickly mount. 
 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
 
MEXICO 00005771  002 OF 002 
 
 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity 
 
GARZA