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Viewing cable 06MANILA4502, STRIKE ONE FOR CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06MANILA4502 2006-10-27 09:15 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Manila
VZCZCXRO1953
OO RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHML #4502/01 3000915
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 270915Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY MANILA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3671
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS IMMEDIATE
RHHMUNA/CDRUSPACOM HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC IMMEDIATE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 004502 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV RP
SUBJECT: STRIKE ONE FOR CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE 
 
REF: A. MANILA 3565 
     B. MANILA 1638 
     C. MANILA 1538 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: Following the October 25 Supreme Court 
ruling against a "people's initiative" to amend the 
Constitution in order to form a unicameral parliamentary 
system, supporters of charter change or "cha cha" will next 
move to form a constituent assembly of the sitting Congress. 
Given the unlikelihood of Senate support, that approach is 
also likely to end up in the Supreme Court as well.  The 
other "cha cha" option -- supported publicly by the head of 
the influential Catholic Bishops' Conference of the 
Philippines -- is a constitutional convention, composed of 
specially elected delegates.  Few are holding their breaths 
that any major Constitutional changes are imminent, and most 
observers expect that the May 2007 elections will proceed. 
End Summary. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
Supreme Court stops "People's Initiative" 
----------------------------------------- 
 
2. (U) On October 25, the Supreme Court, voting 8-7 (with 
outgoing Chief Justice Artemio Panganiban casting the 
deciding vote), upheld an August 31 decision by the 
Commission on Elections (COMELEC) declining to accept a 
petition filed by "Sigaw ng Bayan" (Cry of the People) -- 
alleging endorsed by 10 million signatures -- calling for 
change to a unicameral parliamentary system.  The basis for 
COMELEC,s refusal had been a 1997 Supreme Court ruling that 
there was inadequate enabling legislation for the "people's 
exercise of the power of initiative" to amend the 1987 
Constitution.  The Supreme Court's 52-page decision, penned 
by Associate Justice Antonio Carpio, ruled that the 
signatures failed to comply with the constitutional 
requirement that the initiative must be directly proposed by 
the people, who must understand the full text of the proposed 
amendments before signing a petition.  The Court also noted 
that the signatures were obtained "deceptively," with 
signature sheets signed without the proposed amendments 
attached. 
 
3. (U) The Court also clarified that a "people's initiative" 
should be used only to amend -- not to revise -- the 
Constitution, and that this petition sought an overhaul of 
the entire political structure.  The court affirmed that 
COMELEC did not commit any grave abuses of discretion in its 
August 31 decision on the petition, noting that COMELEC only 
complied with the Supreme Court's earlier injunction against 
entertaining a people's initiative without an adequate 
enabling law. 
 
4. (U) Justice Reynato Puno -- a possible successor to Chief 
Justice Panganiban, who retires in December -- led the seven 
dissenting justices.  In his dissenting opinion, Puno did not 
dwell on the technicalities of the law but stressed that the 
people's voice is sovereign in a democracy and must be heard. 
 "Sigaw ng Bayan" leader Raul Lambino separately stated that, 
given the close vote, his group will now consider filing a 
motion of reconsideration. 
 
5. (U) Opponents of the "People's Initiative" hailed the 
Court's decision.  Former Senate President Franklin Drilon 
lauded the high court for its &admirable sense of 
independence,8 which has &restored people's faith in the 
rule of law8 and &reinforced confidence in the democratic 
system and its institutions.8  The head of the influential 
Catholic Bishops' Conference of the Philippines, Archbishop 
Angel Lagdameo, publicly welcomed the Court's decision "with 
joy and appreciation." 
 
---------------------------- 
Other Constitutional options 
---------------------------- 
 
6. (SBU) Supporters of Constitutional change now have two 
remaining options.  In addition to a people's initiative, 
Article 17 of the 1987 Constitution permits the formation of 
a constituent assembly (a joint session of both houses of 
Congress) or a constitutional convention of specially elected 
delegates.  The administration's political allies in 
Congress, led by House Speaker Jose de Venecia, are now 
aggressively pursuing the former option, perhaps as early as 
December 2006, despite the objections of an apparent majority 
of Senators.  De Venecia has asserted that the vaguely worded 
Constitutional clause should enable a three-fourths combined 
vote of both houses -- even exclusively from the lower house, 
if need be -- rather than separate votes in each house, as is 
normally required for all legislation.  He admitted to 
 
MANILA 00004502  002 OF 002 
 
 
Ambassador and Pol/C that such a vote will inevitably face a 
Constitutional challenge again to the Supreme Court, but 
argued that this is a valid Constitutional issue worthy of 
clarification.  Many observers have expressed doubt, however, 
that he would be able to secure the necessary 195 votes in 
the lower house. 
 
7.  (U) The CBCP's Archbishop Lagdameo publicly reiterated 
support for a constitutional convention and pledged that the 
bishops would "pray for it."  He commented, however, that 
"any system of government, presidential or parliamentary or 
monarchy, will be good if the leaders in it are 
servant-leaders, men of credible integrity and transparent 
accountability." 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
8. (SBU) The defeat of "People's Initiative" by the Supreme 
Court is only strike one in the ongoing "cha cha" campaign. 
Even if Speaker De Venecia succeeds in convening a 
constituent assembly and passing a new Constitution (which he 
has said could also include revised economic provisions as 
well as the change to a unicameral parliamentary model) , the 
inevitable Supreme Court challenge will force further delay. 
Many legal experts predict that this effort will end up as 
strike two in the "cha cha" campaign.  The more complicated 
-- and, critics charge, highly expensive -- process to agree 
on a constitutional convention and to elect delegates (whose 
debates could last indefinitely) would make the chances of 
success for this option even more distant.  Some observers 
have claimed that the entire "cha cha" campaign has served 
primarily as a political distraction over the past year from 
the impeachment efforts against President Arroyo.  Some also 
claim that it will now serve the same function in the run-up 
to the May 2007 elections, in which Malacanang may fear that 
the Opposition could gain a majority, since so many stalwart 
Administration supporters are barred from re-election due to 
term limits.   Overall, the debate over "cha cha" seems 
concentrated principally among Manila's political elites, and 
has garnered remarkably little public interest, despite the 
claimed success of the signature campaign of the now 
discredited people's initiative. 
 
 
Visit Embassy Manila's Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm 
 
You can also access this site through the State Department's 
Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/ 
 
KENNEY