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Viewing cable 06MANAGUA2276, NUNCIO: "AN ORTEGA VICTORY IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06MANAGUA2276 2006-10-13 19:08 2011-06-21 08:00 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Managua
VZCZCXRO9117
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHMU #2276 2861908
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 131908Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7890
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHROV/AMEMBASSY VATICAN PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 002276 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/13/2016 
TAGS: KDEM NU PGOV PHUM PINR PREL
SUBJECT: NUNCIO: "AN ORTEGA VICTORY IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT 
PROBABLE" 
 
REF: A. VATICAN 0213 
 
     B. MANAGUA 1370 
     C. 2005 MANAGUA 2738 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D). 
 
1.  (C) Nuncio Jean Paul Gobel believes that the victory of 
Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) presidential 
candidate Daniel Ortega is "possible but not probable." 
However, he warned Ambassador and polcouns on October 12 that 
popular support for the FSLN has grown in some areas of the 
country, including traditionally Conservative Granada, where 
"entire barrios" now support the FSLN.  He observed that 
while deceased Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS) candidate 
Herty Lewites had attracted many traditional FSLN voters, 
Lewites' successor Edmundo Jarquin appeals more to 
intellectuals than to common folk, many of whom may migrate 
back to the FSLN. 
 
2.  (C) Gobel mentioned that he had not received notice from 
the Vatican on Ambassador Rooney's October 10 meeting with 
the Holy See's Undersecretary for Relations with States, 
Monsignor Pietro Parolin (Ref. A), concerning Cardinal Obando 
y Bravo's political activities, explaining that this type of 
report would be sent to him via diplomatic pouch -- a slow 
process.  The Ambassador noted that Obando's pro-FSLN stance 
is troubling from both political and religious perspectives 
and signals a disturbing shift from Obando's anti-Sandinista 
views in the 1980s.  Gobel reported that in June the Bishops' 
Conference agreed to issue a pastoral letter, released on 
August 15 and calling on Nicaraguans to vote and consider the 
past records of the candidates -- an indirect reference to 
Daniel Ortega.  Gobel suggested that Church leaders will 
continue to refer to the letter before the November 5 
elections, but he doubts that the Church will issue an 
additional, more direct communique, as doing so would require 
a unanimous vote. 
 
3.  (C) Referring to the Church's traditional reluctance to 
chastise its leadership, Gobel doubted that the Vatican will 
call in Obando y Bravo.  However, he noted that Parolin "is 
young and a Salesian, who might see things differently." 
Gobel added that Parolin is also a classmate of the Cardenal 
of Tegucigalpa, who met with Gobel in Managua two weeks ago. 
The Cardenal assured Gobel that he would raise the issue of 
Obando with Parolin. 
 
4.  (C) To the Ambassador's query over the participation of 
the Church in electoral observation via NGO Etica y 
Transparencia -- specifically Archbishop Leopold Brenes' and 
Bishop Hombach's (Granada) interests in the matter -- Gobel 
replied that he opposes the participation of the Church as an 
institution, but favors the involvement of individual 
Catholics.  (NOTE: Gobel left the clear impression that hi in 
fact dissuaded the Archbishop from mounting a separate Church 
observation mission.)  He also opined that the Church's open 
leadership of a recent pro-life, anti-abortion march in 
Managua that ended with the presentation of a document to 
National Assembly lawmakers, had crossed the line, in his 
view, between the Church's role and politics. 
 
5.  (C) The Nuncio also commented on the sorry state of the 
Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC), observing that PLC leader 
Arnoldo Aleman "is not helping Rizo and appears to want him 
to lose."  Troubled by the ego-centric nature of Nicaraguan 
politics, Gobel added that even PLC National Assembly 
candidates do not care if Rizo wins, recounting his recent 
meeting with PLC National Assembly candidate Francisco 
Aguirre Sacasa, who unabashedly informed him that neither 
Montealegre nor Rizo is a shoe-in.  However, regardless of 
the election outcome, Aguirre Sacasa was confident that he 
will gain a seat in the Assembly (he is second on the PLC 
slate), which was all that appeared to matter to the 
ex-Foreign Minister. 
TRIVELLI