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Viewing cable 06LAPAZ2944, PROPOSED MINING PLAN CONTINUES TO "SPOOK" INVESTORS

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06LAPAZ2944 2006-10-30 21:45 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy La Paz
VZCZCXYZ0002
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHLP #2944/01 3032145
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 302145Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY LA PAZ
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1131
INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 6234
RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 3554
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 7416
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 4676
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 1927
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 1978
RUEHMD/AMEMBASSY MADRID 3164
RUEHME/AMEMBASSY MEXICO 1851
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 4127
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 0064
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 4565
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 9139
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 0258
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHC/DEPT OF INTERIOR WASHINGTON DC
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS LA PAZ 002944 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/AND LPETRONI 
COMMERCE FOR JANGLIN 
TREASURY FOR SGOOCH 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EMIN EINV ECON BL
SUBJECT: PROPOSED MINING PLAN CONTINUES TO "SPOOK" INVESTORS 
 
REF: A. LA PAZ 2780 
     B. LA PAZ 2904 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1. (SBU) President Morales' October 15 announcement of 
"surprises" for the mining industry (ref A) has been tempered 
in the last two weeks by assurances that the GOB will respect 
private investment.  Officials' statements, however, have 
done little to reassure industry executives, who worry that 
the GOB will expand its role in the sector and introduce 
significant tax and royalty increases.  Whether the GOB's 
comprehensive mining plan, expected October 31, will 
"nationalize" the industry or merely redefine the role of 
Comibol, the state-owned mining company, remains unclear. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
GOB OFFICIALS TEMPER MORALES' COMMENTS 
-------------------------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) President Morales' October 15 announcement of 
"surprises" for the mining industry (ref A) has been tempered 
in the last two weeks by assurances that the GOB will respect 
private investment.  Vice President Alvaro Garcia Linera said 
publicly October 16 that the GOB would not interfere with 
privately owned, productive mining concessions, and Minister 
of the Presidency Juan Ramon de la Quintana repeated this 
assurance in an October 24 meeting with the Ambassador (ref 
B).  In a similar vein, Minister of Mining Jose Dalence 
declared October 29 that the GOB would honor private 
investments "that respect (Bolivian) law" and operate within 
the boundaries of existing regulations. 
 
------------------------ 
INVESTORS REMAIN SPOOKED 
------------------------ 
 
3. (SBU) Officials' statements, however, have done little to 
reassure industry executives, who worry that the GOB will 
expand its role in the sector and introduce significant tax 
and royalty increases.  Gerardo Garrett, vice president of 
the local subsidiary of U.S.-based Apex Silver, which owns 
the $800 million San Cristobal silver-lead-zinc project, told 
Econoff October 30 that potential tax hikes remain the 
industry's biggest concern, noting that dramatic increases 
could significantly alter companies' bottom lines and make it 
difficult to recoup investments.  According to Garrett, 
executives have had little choice but to wait, as GOB 
officials have limited discussions to a select group inside 
the presidential palace; even mining ministry officials are 
reportedly unfamiliar with proposed changes. 
 
---------------------------- 
GOB KEEPS DETAILS CLOSE-HOLD 
---------------------------- 
 
4. (U) Whether the GOB's comprehensive mining plan, expected 
October 31, will "nationalize" the industry or merely 
redefine the role of Comibol, the state-owned mining company, 
remains unclear.  Minister Dalence has avoided talk of 
"nationalization," declaring that the GOB will not repeat the 
1952 actions of the Paz Estenssoro government, which 
expropriated mining concessions and operations, but will 
concentrate instead on "refounding" Comibol, positioning it 
to resume its past exploration and production activities and 
assume a greater role in all aspects of the productive chain, 
from exploration and exploitation to processing and sale. 
Dalence has also hinted that Comibol may assume control of 
unproductive concessions, which could revert to state control 
if declared idle by GOB-sponsored auditors.  Dalence has 
further indicated the GOB's desire to modify the existing 
mining code and introduce a new mining law, ostensibly to 
raise the complementary mining tax, which is levied on the 
gross sales value of metals and calculated on a sliding scale 
that varies by mineral. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
5. (SBU) La Paz is rife with rumors of a possible 
postponement of the GOB's announcement.  Many analysts 
speculate that Morales will decide to use his next 
"nationalization" to counter an eventual drop in approval 
ratings, which fell to a low of approximately 50 percent 
before the GOB's recent hydrocarbons success.  If the GOB 
does unveil its mining plan, it may not win the applause it 
expects, as key groups have spoken out against the proposal. 
The National Federation of Cooperative Miners (FENCOMIN) has 
expressed opposition to any "nationalization" of the mining 
industry and withdrawn its support from the Morales 
administration, and salaried miners have expressed resentment 
at not being included in GOB discussions.  The GOB's ability 
to win support from the two groups is far from certain; if 
they oppose the proposal, or find aspects of it 
unsatisfactory, they could easily take their demands to the 
streets ) and create further problems for a government 
struggling to quiet growing opposition. 
GOLDBERG