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Viewing cable 06TOKYO5362, THE ELECTION MECHANICS BEHIND ABE'S LIKELY WIN

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06TOKYO5362 2006-09-19 10:06 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Tokyo
VZCZCXRO7148
OO RUEHFK RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHNH
DE RUEHKO #5362/01 2621006
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 191006Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6499
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 4228
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 1785
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL PRIORITY 0357
RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA PRIORITY 8118
RUEHNAG/AMCONSUL NAGOYA PRIORITY 7882
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA PRIORITY 0673
RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE PRIORITY 1470
RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO PRIORITY 9210
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUYNAAC/COMNAVFORJAPAN YOKOSUKA JA PRIORITY
RHHMHBA/COMPACFLT PEARL HARBOR HI PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/COMUSJAPAN YOKOTA AB JA PRIORITY
RHHMUNA/COMSOCPAC HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEATRS/TREASURY DEPT WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC PRIORITY
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 005362 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ECON JA
SUBJECT: THE ELECTION MECHANICS BEHIND ABE'S LIKELY WIN 
 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary.  Japan's next Prime Minister will be 
chosen by an election for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 
Presidency.  On the eve of the September 20 poll, Chief 
Cabinet Secretary Abe has an insurmountable lead over his two 
opponents.  This message outlines the mechanics of the LDP 
presidential election.  Abe becomes the next LDP president 
and Prime Minister if he wins over 50 percent of the 703 
votes that will be cast by party supporters and Diet members. 
 Although highly unlikely, if Abe fails to win a simple 
majority, there will be a run-off between the top two 
candidates, in which only LDP Diet members will be eligible 
to vote.  Once elected, Abe will be eligible to serve two, 
three-year terms at the pleasure of the party.  End Summary. 
 
Abe Outdistancing the Pack 
-------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential 
election will decide who will succeed Prime Minister Koizumi 
and, on the eve of the September 20th election, Chief Cabinet 
Secretary Shinzo Abe is almost certain to win.  Politicians, 
 
SIPDIS 
academics and political analysts all agree that Abe has an 
insurmountable lead and will soundly defeat his two 
opponents, Foreign Minister Taro Aso and Finance Minister 
Sadakazu Tanigaki.  Newspaper polls reflect Abe's commanding 
position.  Polls targeting LDP Diet members and LDP 
supporters (both groups will have a say in the election) show 
that Abe has secured over 70 percent of the Diet members' 
votes and over 56 percent of the votes from party supporters. 
 
Election Committee Formalizes Schedule 
-------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (SBU) In late June, the LDP formed an 11-member 
Presidential Election Management Committee, which includes 
one "neutral" senior politician and a representative from 
each of the ten factions.  Party rules dictate that the 
election must take place during the 10-day window before the 
expiration of Koizumi's term (September 30) and the party 
must announce the election date at least 10 days before the 
poll.  In early July, after taking "political circumstances" 
and diplomatic schedules into consideration, the Committee 
decided to officially announce the election on September 8 
and set the election date for September 20. 
 
Political Allies Count 
---------------------- 
 
4.  (SBU) Candidates for the LDP presidency must be Diet 
members and must be nominated by at least 20 LDP Diet 
colleagues.  The "electorate" is small; there are only 703 
votes.  The 403 LDP Diet members will each cast one vote.  In 
addition, three hundred additional votes will be cast by the 
LDP's chapters in Japan's 47 prefectures.  Each LDP 
prefectural chapter received a minimum of three votes, with 
the remaining difference divided proportionally among the 47 
chapters based on the number of registered LDP members in 
their prefectures (see para 9 for more detail).  To be 
eligible to vote, a local party member must have been 
registered for the past two years and must be up-to-date on 
dues.  LDP Headquarters estimates the number of eligible 
party members to be around 1.2 million; they expect about 1 
million members to participate in the election.  If a 
candidate wins over 50 percent of the 703 votes (352 votes), 
he will become the next LDP president and Prime Minister.  If 
no candidate wins a simple majority, there will be a run-off 
between the top two candidates.  Only the 403 LDP Diet 
members, however, are eligible to vote in the run-off. 
 
Local-level "Primary" 
--------------------- 
 
5.  (SBU) Each local chapter will hold a chapter-level poll 
 
TOKYO 00005362  002 OF 003 
 
 
before Election Day.  The number of votes allotted by the LDP 
to the chapter will then be divvied up between the candidates 
on a proportional basis.  For example, in Tokyo's ten-vote 
district, if, hypothetically, there were a total of 100,000 
eligible voters and Candidate A won 60,000 votes, Candidate B 
won 30,000 and Candidate C won 10,000, then Candidate A would 
get six of Tokyo's 10 votes, Candidate B would get three and 
Candidate C would get one.  Representatives from the 
prefectural chapters will hand-carry their chapter's votes to 
an LDP meeting in Tokyo.  The local chapter votes and the 
Diet members' votes will be tabulated at the same time. 
 
Freedom of Choice 
----------------- 
 
6.  (SBU) The vote will be conducted by secret ballot.  The 
breakdown of votes for each prefecture will be publicly 
available after Koizumi's successor is chosen.  On the other 
hand, the LDP will publish a report detailing the number of 
Diet member votes cast for each candidate but will not reveal 
how each member voted. 
 
Money Not an Issue 
------------------ 
 
7.  (SBU) In contrast to parliamentary elections, campaign 
funding has played an insignificant role in the LDP 
presidential election.  There are no formal rules about how 
much money a candidate may spend, but most candidates did not 
spend much.  The LDP provided each candidate with a campaign 
room in Tokyo and covered their phone bills.  Some of the 
Diet members who endorsed a candidate seconded their 
assistants to work in the campaign offices and the party 
financed the nationwide candidate debates.  Prefectural 
chapters and support groups (koenkai) invited candidates to 
speak at meetings, and covered most of the costs associated 
with the visits.  In fact, a veteran at LDP Headquarters told 
us that candidates actively avoid spending too much on their 
campaigns, lest they create the impression that they are 
trying to buy a victory.  In previous elections, candidates 
did pay for policy pamphlets and fashion consultants, but the 
majority of the costs of the election were borne by the party 
infrastructure. 
 
After the Election 
------------------ 
 
8.  (SBU) After the election on September 20, the Diet will 
convene an extraordinary session.  Prime Minister Koizumi 
will open the session on September 26 and the entire Cabinet 
will immediately resign en masse, compelling the Diet to 
elect the next Prime Minister.  With a coalition majority in 
both houses, the new LDP President will be easily elected the 
next premier.  The Prime Minister will name the new Cabinet 
that same day.  There are no term limits for Japan's Prime 
Minister.  The LDP, however, imposes a two, three-year term 
limit on its President thus effectively limiting the next 
Prime Minister's tenure. 
 
Prefectural Chapter Votes 
------------------------- 
 
9.  (U) The 300 chapter votes will be divided as follows: 
 
Hokkaido (9), Aomori (5), Iwate (5), Miyagi (5), Akita (5), 
Yamagata (5), Fukushima (6), Ibaraki (11), Tochigi (5), Gunma 
(7), Saitama (8), Chiba (6), Tokyo (12), Kanagawa (9), 
Niigata (7), Toyama (9), Ishikawa (8), Fukui (5), Yamanashi 
(4), Nagano (5), Gifu (9), Shizuoka (8), Aichi (10), Mie (5), 
Shiga (5), Kyoto (6), Osaka (8), Hyogo (7), Nara (4), 
Wakayama (4), Tottori (4), Shimane (6), Okayama (6), 
Hiroshima (9), Yamaguchi (6), Tokushima (4), Kagawa (6), 
Ehime (9), Kochi (5), Fukuoka (6), Saga (5), Nagasaki (6), 
 
TOKYO 00005362  003 OF 003 
 
 
Kumamoto (6), Oita (5), Miyazaki (5), Kagoshima (7), Okinawa 
(3). 
SCHIEFFER