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Viewing cable 06MEXICO5005, IT'S OFFICIAL: CALDERON DECLARED PRESIDENT-ELECT

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06MEXICO5005 2006-09-05 22:57 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Mexico
VZCZCXRO2541
OO RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #5005/01 2482257
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 052257Z SEP 06 ZDS
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3041
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RHMFIUU/CDR USNORTHCOM IMMEDIATE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RHMFIUU/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL IMMEDIATE
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEAHLA/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY IMMEDIATE
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC IMMEDIATE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 005005 
 
SIPDIS 
 
C O R R E C T E D  C O P Y 
FOR CLASSIFICATION MISMATCH IN PARA 6 - CHANGED TO (U) 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MX
SUBJECT: IT'S OFFICIAL: CALDERON DECLARED PRESIDENT-ELECT 
 
REF: MEXICO 4368 
 
MEXICO 00005005  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
1.  (U) Summary:  On Tuesday, September 5, the Mexican 
Federal Electoral Tribunal (TEPJF) declared Felipe Calderon 
President-elect, ending rival candidate Andres Manuel Lopez 
Obrador's (AMLO) two month-long legal challenge of the 
election results.  In a unanimous decision, the seven 
magistrates acknowledged various irregularities in the 
election process, most notably the improper intervention of 
President Fox in the campaign, but said these irregularities 
taken together provided insufficient grounds to invalidate 
the election.  Tallying up the final vote total, the TEPJF 
found that Calderon won by a margin of 233,831 votes (0.56%) 
of the 41.6 million cast.  While the magistrates announced 
their decision, several hundred angry AMLO supporters noisily 
protested outside, preventing attendees from leaving for a 
short time following the hearing's conclusion.  The TEPJF,s 
decision was widely expected and represents the closing act 
in AMLO's legal challenge.  Meanwhile, AMLO's extra-legal 
challenge shows no signs of waning.  End summary. 
 
Calderon By A Nose 
------------------ 
 
2.  (U) In its decision, the TEPJF stipulated the final vote 
tally, taking into account the precincts it annulled in its 
August 30 decision due to irregularities, and the results of 
the August 9-14 recount (reftel).  The final results showed 
Calderon with 14,916,927 votes, compared with AMLO's 
14,683,096, for a difference of 233,831 votes or 0.56%.  The 
recount shrunk Calderon's margin of victory by a bare 0.02%. 
 
Fox Comes In For Criticism 
-------------------------- 
 
3.  (U) After the TEPJF Secretary read the proposed decision, 
each of the seven magistrates spoke in turn, explaining their 
reasons for supporting it.  All agreed that while the 
election process had imperfections -- most cited President 
Fox's oblique endorsement of Calderon and criticisms of AMLO 
during the campaign, as well as the pro-Calderon advertising 
of some business groups -- all concluded that these actions 
were not sufficient to undermine the overall integrity of the 
election.  Addressing herself to the Mexican public, 
Magistrate Alfonsina Berta Navarro Hidalgo, one of the two 
authors of the final decision, observed that no election was 
perfect and that even the improper actions of a single person 
could damage the process.  She added, however, that annulling 
an election was an extraordinary remedy appropriate only in 
exceptional circumstances, when a complainant had clearly 
proven major irregularities that had a transcendental effect 
on the outcome of the election.  She concluded that while 
there were a number of irregularities in this election and 
that no party was entirely guilt-free, the irregularities 
were not sufficiently serious to undermine the election's 
overall integrity. 
 
4.  (U) Magistrate Eloy Fuentes Cerde, the other co-author of 
the decision, noted the contradiction in AMLO's alternate 
demands for a nationwide recount and the annulment of the 
entire election.  Likewise, he noted the inconsistency of the 
Party of the Democratic Revolution's (PRD) acceptance of the 
very favorable results of the congressional elections, while 
protesting the unfavorable results of the presidential 
election, when both elections were carried out on the very 
same day and by the very same election workers.  In an 
oblique reference to President Fox and to those in the 
business community who improperly sponsored ads critical of 
AMLO, one magistrate said that while some citizens "did not 
rise to the circumstances" of the moment, this campaign 
nevertheless was cleaner than most.  In a similarly oblique 
reference, TEPJF President Leonel Castillo said he hoped 
powerful political and economic actors would stay within 
their proper role in future campaigns. 
 
An Angry Crowd Awaits The Inevitable 
------------------------------------ 
 
5.  (U) While the magistrates met before a packed courtroom, 
hundreds of AMLO supporters protested loudly outside, with 
the sound of numerous large firecrackers punctuating the 
hearing.  One protester threw an egg at the TEPJF, although 
there appeared to be few other aggressive acts.  A group of 
protesters paraded in front of television cameras a coffin 
with the word "democracy" painted on it, a prop that had been 
 
MEXICO 00005005  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
recycled from similar use in an earlier protest in Mexico 
City's Zocalo (Central Square).  The TEPJF security staff did 
not permit anyone to leave the court premises for 
approximately 40 minutes after the hearing concluded, until 
the demonstrators calmed somewhat. 
 
What's Next? 
------------ 
 
6.  (U) Although the TEPJF's decision is not subject to 
appeal, AMLO appears poised to set an unfortunate precedent, 
being the first complainant in the TEPJF's 10 year history 
not to accept a ruling.  Within approximately the next 24 
hours, the TEPJF will deliver to Felipe Calderon his 
"Certificate of Majority," confirming his victory.  The press 
has reported that both Calderon and AMLO plan to offer public 
remarks at 7:00 pm this evening, and that Fox plans to 
address the nation at 8:30 pm.  Los Pinos has announced a 
meeting between Calderon and President Fox, scheduled for 
10:00 am September 6. 
 
Comment: Terra Incognito Ahead 
------------------------------ 
 
7.  (SBU) With the TEPJF's declaration of Calderon as 
President-elect, AMLO has reached the final stop on the legal 
track for challenging the election results.  Yet his appetite 
for protest appears far from sated.  Whatever strategy he and 
his supporters now embark on falls outside the bounds of 
institutionality, and there is neither a political road map 
nor an historical precedent to guide the way.  The biggest 
variable of all will be the extent to which AMLO continues to 
maintain the PRD unified behind him.  While he has been 
remarkably successful in doing so up until now, with the 
TEPJF's final decision, it will become increasingly difficult 
for the PRD to continue to straddle the conflicting realms of 
legality and extra-legality.  Likewise, if the party aspires 
to any role greater than that of a spoiler for Calderon's 
agenda, it will have to distance itself from its defeated 
candidate.  Once he loses the support of his party, AMLO's 
influence will inevitably wane. 
 
8.  (SBU) Finally, the TEPJF proved itself equal to the 
demands of this important juncture.  While it has been 
reported that the magistrates themselves were not without 
their differences of opinion, in this extraordinary moment, 
they were able to put their differences aside and reach a 
decision that all felt comfortable supporting.  Although the 
unanimity of the Tribunal's decision will be of no 
consequence to AMLO's most diehard supporters, we believe it 
will help restore the confidence of ordinary Mexicans in the 
election process. 
 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity 
 
GARZA