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Viewing cable 06MEXICO4987, MEXICO'S DRAMATIC POLITICAL WEEKEND

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06MEXICO4987 2006-09-05 20:34 2011-04-05 20:00 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Mexico
Appears in these articles:
http://wikileaks.jornada.com.mx/notas/eu-siguio-con-lupa-la-movilizacion-poselectoral
VZCZCXRO1607
PP RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #4987/01 2482034
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 052034Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3023
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CDR USNORTHCOM PRIORITY
RUEAHLA/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY PRIORITY
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC PRIORITY
77216
2006-09-05 20:34:00
06MEXICO4987
Embassy Mexico
CONFIDENTIAL
06MEXICO4707
VZCZCXRO1607
PP RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #4987/01 2482034
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 052034Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3023
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CDR USNORTHCOM PRIORITY
RUEAHLA/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY PRIORITY
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC PRIORITY
TAGS: ECON ELAB PINR PGOV MX
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 004987 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/05/2016 
TAGS: ECON ELAB PINR PGOV MX
SUBJECT: MEXICO'S DRAMATIC POLITICAL WEEKEND 
 REF: MEXICO 4707 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR CHARLES V. BARCLAY REASONS: 
 1.4 (B/D). 
 
1. (C) Summary: On Friday, September 1, the Revolutionary 
Democratic Party (PRD) made good on its promise to prevent 
President Fox from delivering his final annual report to the 
Mexican Congress, part of the PRD's commitment to Andres 
Manuel Lopez Obrador's (AMLO's) plan to humiliate the 
President (reftel).  AMLO backed down from leading his 
supporters to convene on the Congress, while political party 
representatives who spoke before Fox's scheduled address 
complained about a state of siege by federal forces which had 
established a security perimeter around the Congress. 
Although unpopular with most Mexicans, the PRD's successful 
strategy to block Fox from taking the podium is likely to 
have emboldened it to try to disrupt President-elect Felipe 
Calderon's inauguration on December 1.  End summary. 
 
2. (C) In the minutes before Fox was scheduled to enter the 
Congress on September 1, PRD legislators took control of the 
congressional dais, chanting AMLO's slogan "vote by vote, 
polling place by polling place" and making it effectively 
impossible for Fox to deliver his speech there.  Some PRD 
lawmakers also held up banners calling Fox a "traitor" to 
democracy.  Chamber President Jorge Zermeno of the ruling PAN 
party unsuccessfully urged the opposition legislators to 
return to their seats and then declared a recess.  In an 
atmosphere more comical than hostile, PAN legislators 
responded to PRD heckling by shouting "Vicente." 
 
3. (C) Upon arriving at the Congress, Fox stopped at the 
lobby entrance and remarked, "faced with the attitude of a 
group of legislators that makes it impossible to read the 
speech I have prepared for this occasion, I am leaving the 
building."  He then hand-delivered his prepared address to 
congressional officials and returned to the presidential 
palace, where he gave his speech on television.  In that 
address, Fox characterized the legislators' actions as "not 
an affront to me personally but to the office of the 
president and the Mexican people."  A snap poll in Mexico's 
Reforma newspaper showed that 77 percent of Mexicans 
disapproved of the PRD's efforts to prevent Fox from 
delivering his final state-of-the-nation address (Note: 
Mexican press has been overwhelmingly critical of the PRD's 
action.  End note). 
 
4. (C) That same day, AMLO backed down from urging his 
supporters to converge on the Congress.  In the face of a 
robust federal security ring established around the area 
leading to the Congress, AMLO told supporters that he would 
not fall into the government's "trap."  On September 3, at 
his daily address to supporters on the Zocalo, AMLO asked 
them to sustain the peaceful resistance and said that Mexico 
needs a "radical transformation."  He also warned the army, 
as he has in the past, not to take action against the people 
that would bring it "disrespect," alluding to darker periods 
of repression in Mexico's history.  AMLO has called for the 
convening of a National Democratic Convention on September 
16, the same day that Mexico celebrates its Independence and 
the army is scheduled to parade along the very same route now 
blocked by protesters. 
 
5 (C) Comment: Only two other Mexican presidents in the past 
180 years have not been able to deliver their 
state-of-the-nation address to the Congress, and this was the 
first time in modern history that a president was blocked 
from doing so.  While the PRD continues to lose public 
support in the face of its increasingly radical tactics, 
AMLO's strategy to provoke a crisis of governability has 
gained some traction in the short-run and showed that he 
still has control over his party.  AMLO's actions have also 
contributed to undermining the credibility of Mexico's 
electoral institutions and further weakening the presidency. 
Even if AMLO now begins to retreat in terms of pressuring 
Mexico's government from the streets - a possible but not 
certain outcome following today's ruling - the PRD can be 
expected to do everything in its power to limit Felipe 
Calderon's ability to govern once he takes office.  The PRD's 
September 1 behavior should be seen as a dress rehearsal for 
December 1, when it will likely seek to prevent the 
President-elect from delivering his acceptance speech.  The 
challenge for Calderon's team will be crafting an inaugural 
event that contains the PRD.  With only two months to go 
before assuming the presidency, the slimmest of mandates to 
 
MEXICO 00004987  002 OF 002 
 
 
govern, and an obstructionist Congress facing him, Calderon 
enters office with an extremely steep hill to climb. 
 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity 
 
BASSETT