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Viewing cable 06KINSHASA1412, DRC ELECTIONS: PROVISIONAL LEGISLATIVE RESULTS

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06KINSHASA1412 2006-09-08 11:31 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Kinshasa
VZCZCXRO4985
PP RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHKI #1412/01 2511131
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 081131Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY KINSHASA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4749
INFO RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KINSHASA 001412 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPKO CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS: PROVISIONAL LEGISLATIVE RESULTS 
SHOW NO PARTY WITH MAJORITY 
 
REF: A. KINSHASA 1386 
     B. KINSHASA 1102 
 
1. (U) Summary: National provisional results released 
September 7 by the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) for 
the DRC's next National Assembly show no political party or 
coalition controlling a majority of the chamber's 500 seats. 
According to the CEI figures, the People's Party for 
Reconstruction and Development (PPRD) leads all parties with 
22 percent (111 seats) of the tabulated vote. Vice President 
Jean-Pierre Bemba's Movement for the Liberation of Congo 
(MLC) won a total of 13 percent (64 seats), while 63 
independent candidates also won seats in the future 
legislature. The announcement of the provisional results was 
delayed for three days because of logistical problems and 
reported attempts at falsifying vote counts. The National 
Assembly is now scheduled to be installed September 22. End 
summary. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
PPRD TAKES PLURALITY OF SEATS, BUT NO PARTY HAS MAJORITY 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
2. (U) The CEI released the evening of September 7 the 
provisional election results from the DRC's July 30 National 
Assembly elections. The Kabila-affiliated PPRD won a total of 
111 seats (22 percent), with the MLC taking 64 seats (13 
percent). A total of 63 independent candidates were also 
awarded seats in the future National Assembly, comprising 13 
percent of the 500-seat Assembly. Antoine Gizenga's Unified 
Lumumbist Party (PALU) received the third-highest vote count 
with 34 seats (seven percent) overall, thanks to a strong 
showing in Kinshasa and Bandundu province. In addition to the 
PPRD, MLC and PALU, 66 other political parties won positions 
in the national legislature; 31 of those parties claimed just 
one seat. No party or coalition, however, gained a majority 
of seats to control the Assembly and thus the right to 
present a candidate for the position of prime minister. 
 
3. (U) In Kinshasa's four electoral districts -- representing 
nearly 12 percent of the National Assembly -- no one party 
came out ahead. The 58 seats available in the capital were 
spread among 25 political parties and three independent 
candidates. The MLC won the plurality with eight seats, 
followed by PALU with six seats. The PPRD and Vice President 
Z'ahidi Ngoma's Camp de la Patrie party each won four seats 
in the capital. 
 
4. (U) Parties comprising the Alliance for the Presidential 
Majority (AMP), a coalition of 31 parties which backed 
President Kabila's presidential bid (including the PPRD), 
have won an additional 49 seats, bringing the AMP's share to 
160 seats, or 32 percent of the total. The Rally of Congolese 
Nationalists (RENACO), which includes Bemba's MLC, has won 29 
additional seats, raising its total to 93 seats overall, or 
19 percent of the entire Assembly. 
 
5. (U) Two other political parties hold smaller but 
significant percentages of the overall totals. Minister of 
Regional Cooperation Mbusa Nyamwisi's Forces of Renewal party 
won 26 seats (five percent), and the Social Movement for 
Renewal (MSR) garnered 27 seats (five percent). Both parties 
may be considered potential allies of Kabila's AMP, but 
neither is as yet officially partnered with the coalition. If 
both Forces of Renewal and the MSR were to join with the AMP, 
the Alliance would have 213 seats (43 percent) in the 
National Assembly -- still not enough to control the 
legislature. 
 
------------------ 
WINNERS AND LOSERS 
------------------ 
 
6. (U) The latest results have shown more well-known national 
politicians winning seats, although there have been some 
high-profile losers as well. Among the winners in Western 
Kasai province were the current governor Gilbert Tshiongo 
(PPRD), former governor Andre-Claudel Lubaya (PPRD), Vice 
Minister of Budget Tresor Kapuku (Rally for Congolese 
Democracy, RCD), and former Kabila adviser Evariste Boshab 
(PPRD). In Bandundu province, former National Assembly 
President Olivier Kamitatu (Forces du Renouveau/ARC) and 
Minister of Interior Theophile Mbemba (PPRD) also won in 
their respective districts, although by narrow margins. Other 
winners included Minister of Defense Adolphe Onusumba (RCD) 
 
KINSHASA 00001412  002 OF 003 
 
 
in Eastern Kasai, former Minister of Public Works and former 
MLC member Jose Endundo (Party of Christian Democrats) in 
Equateur, the current governor of Eastern Kasai Dominique 
Kanku (MLC), and sports club owner and PPRD regional campaign 
manager Moise Katumbi in Katanga. Minister of Foreign Affairs 
Raymond Ramazani (MLC) lost his race for a seat in Orientale 
province, as did the province's current governor Lola Kisanga 
(RCD). The current governor of Kinshasa, Kibembe Mazunda 
(PPRD) also lost in his district. Eve Bazaiba, the former 
member of the opposition Union for Democracy and Social 
Progress (UDPS) -- who was the only known high-profile UDPS 
to run for any seat despite the party's election boycott (ref 
B) -- lost her race for a seat representing her district in 
Kinshasa. 
 
-------------- 
WHY THE DELAY? 
-------------- 
 
7. (U) The CEI had previously planned to announce provisional 
nationwide National Assembly results September 4. The 
announcement was pushed back to September 7 because of 
logistical delays and other difficulties. CEI officials said 
on September 4 ten CEI agents at the Kinshasa compilation 
center were caught trying to falsify results in favor of a 
candidate for the RCD party. While the attempted fraud was 
detected and no results were altered, the CEI withheld 
publishing the figures for three of Kinshasa's four electoral 
districts in order to re-examine the results. CEI officials 
said this re-verification process required a few extra days 
of work, since there were 45 seats at stake involving more 
than 2,400 candidates. In addition, results from 25 districts 
in the interior of the country had yet to be transmitted to 
CEI headquarters in Kinshasa for final confirmation. CEI 
President Abbe Apollinaire Malu Malu said the delay in 
releasing the provisional legislative results will have no 
impact on the date for the second round of elections 
scheduled for October 29. Instead, the installation of the 
next National Assembly has been subsequently pushed back to 
September 22 from its previous date of September 19. (Note: 
The DRC's electoral law stipulates the National Assembly is 
to be seated 15 days after the announcement of the 
provisional results. End note.) 
 
---------- 
NEXT STEPS 
---------- 
 
8. (U) According to the DRC's electoral law, challenges to 
the provisional legislative results must be brought before 
the Supreme Court within the three days following the 
announcement of results. The Court will then have two months 
to deliberate on all challenges and issue its rulings. 
Consequently, the validation of final National Assembly 
results will not be made until November 12. 
 
9. (U) In the meantime, as mentioned above, the National 
Assembly will be seated based on the provisional results 
September 22. According to Article 114 of the DRC 
constitution, the provisional Assembly will be led by the 
oldest elected member of the institution and assisted by its 
two youngest elected members. (Note: As of September 8, the 
oldest and youngest members of the Assembly have not yet been 
identified. End note.) The provisional bureau will, by the 
powers granted in the constitution, validate the office's 
powers, elect and install the members of the permanent 
executive office, and determine the internal rules of the 
Assembly. 
 
10. (U) As no political party or coalition won a majority of 
seats, the two weeks leading up to the installation of the 
National Assembly will undoubtedly be filled with 
horse-trading and coalition-building. Among the 63 
independent candidates elected, it is unknown how many will 
ally themselves with the AMP or RENACO, or otherwise choose 
to remain unaligned; nor is it certain which of the smaller 
parties will declare the allegiances. Since the future prime 
minister will be selected by the next President from the 
ranks of the Assembly's majority party/coalition, each side 
has a vested interest in gathering the required 251 votes to 
claim a majority. Absent such a majority, however, the DRC 
constitution stipulates that the President can nominate an 
individual to undertake a mission of 30 days (renewable once) 
to "identify a coalition" to lead the Assembly. 
 
 
KINSHASA 00001412  003 OF 003 
 
 
------------------------------------------ 
COMMENT: PREVIEWING SECOND-ROUND ELECTIONS 
------------------------------------------ 
 
11. (SBU) The National Assembly results -- perhaps not 
surprisingly -- are nearly identical to the first-round 
presidential election figures. The Kabila-allied AMP 
(including Forces du Renouveau and the MSR) won 43 percent 
and the Bemba-allied RENACO won 19 percent, compared to 
Kabila's 45 percent and Bemba's 20 percent in the July 30 
presidential voting. The deals to be struck in the coming 
days to form a parliamentary majority will definitely be made 
with the outcome of the October 29 presidential runoff 
election in mind. The composition of any potential majority 
alliance, though, is unclear. Coalition-building will be 
difficult for the Kabila and Bemba camps, particularly in 
light of the August 20-22 violence in Kinshasa that likely 
diminished the goodwill toward both candidates (although at 
more cost for Kabila than for Bemba). In any case, the 
creation of the National Assembly majority is worth close 
examination, as it will likely give a good indication of the 
results the Kabila-Bemba faceoff. 
MEECE