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Viewing cable 06BUENOSAIRES1983, US PRESIDENT BUSH'S POPULARITY RATING; WAR IN LEBANON; IRAN

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06BUENOSAIRES1983 2006-09-01 19:48 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Buenos Aires
VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #1983/01 2441948
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 011948Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5754
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT
UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001983 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, 
WHA/EPSC 
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: US PRESIDENT BUSH'S POPULARITY RATING; WAR IN LEBANON; IRAN 
NUCLEAR THREAT; UN ROLE; THE US ECONOMY; CUBA; US-URUGUAYAN FTA; 
US-ASEAN FTA; AIRPORT SECURITY; 08/28/06 
 
 
1. SUMMARY STATEMENT 
 
Today's major international stories include US President George W. 
Bush's popularity rating; the status of the war in Lebanon; the 
nuclear threat posed by Iran; the role the UN should play in 
international conflicts; the US policy on Cuba; the US-Uruguayan 
FTA; the US-Asean FTA; and international airports security treated 
as a foreign policy issue. 
 
2. OPINION PIECES AND KEY STORIES 
 
- "Bush's popularity on the rise thanks to his security policy" 
 
Leonardo Mindez, columnist of leading "Clarin," writes (08/26) "For 
the first time this year, recent opinion surveys have pleased the 
White House. After months of slumping support, US President George 
W. Bush again has popularity ratings of over 40 per cent... 
 
"According to two opinion surveys, one performed by the CNN network 
and another from USA Today-Gallup, US President Bush's approval rate 
is 42 per cent... 
 
"... The new point is that Americans seem to have separated the 
Iraqi 'swamp' from the global war on terrorism. In this way, CNN 
reveals that when asked what party can better lead the strategy in 
Iraq, American citizens gave Democrats a six-point lead (47 vs. 
41%), but when they are asked who would better lead the war on 
terrorism, Republicans obtain a 10-point lead (47 vs. 38%)." 
 
- "The EU will send 7,000 troops to Lebanon" 
 
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" reports (08/26) "After two weeks of 
intense negotiations and pressures from the international community, 
the EU finally agreed to be the 'backbone' of UN peace-keeping 
troops in Lebanon, and it committed to contributing at least 7,000 
troops, largely from Italy, France and Spain. 
 
"European representatives put aside their reticence and committed to 
strengthening the truce between Israel and Hezbollah. 
 
"UN Secretary General Kofi Annan said 'It is a great achievement. 
Now we can start creating a reliable force to help the Lebanese army 
control the South of the country, which is one of Hezbollah's main 
strongholds." 
 
- "War intermezzo" 
 
Centrist "Perfil" newspaper carries an opinion piece by Jorge 
Castro, political analyst, who writes (08/27) "The war in Lebanon 
between Israel and Hezbollah, from July 12 thru August 14, can only 
be understood in regional and global terms. 
 
"It is a war based on a continuum, which comes from the 1947/48 
conflict, continues in that of 1980/82, and will continue virtually 
after the pause started on August 14, which is a simple intermezzo 
in political and strategic terms in a long-standing conflict. 
 
"... The war between Israel and Hezbollah is an asymmetric conflict 
of high technology. All other wars that Israel waged with its Arab 
neighbors were waged between countries. By definition, asymmetrical 
wars are long, lack a clear result and a sliding victory. 
 
"No asymmetrical conflict can end in a short war. This end is only 
possible in conventional wars, in which troops of warring countries 
face each other, as happened in that of the Six Days (1967) or that 
of Yom Kippur (1973). Hezbollah seems to have noticed the true 
nature of the conflict. Israel will have to adapt itself to it." 
 
- "Iran takes one more step in its nuclear program" 
 
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" reports (08/27) "Only five days away 
from the deadline of the UN ultimatum to Tehran to put an end to the 
sensitive activities of its controversial nuclear program, the 
Islamic Iranian regime redoubled its bet and challenged the 
international community by launching a heavy water plant and 
successfully testing a 250-km land-to-ocean missile. 
 
"In spite of criticism of Western powers' pressure, Iranian 
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad inaugurated yesterday the nuclear 
plant and asserted he will 'strongly' defend his 'nuclear right.' 
 
"... While heavy water is civilian technology, it will serve to 
launch a nuclear reactor, which Iran is planning to inaugurate in 
2009 and which the international community considers a risk." 
 
- "Washington seeks another way to impose sanctions (on Iran)" 
 
 
 
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" reports (08/27)d "Vis-`-vis the 
possibility that the UN Security Council does not manage to impose 
sanctions on Iran due to its controversial nuclear program, the US 
is reportedly assessing whether to create an independent coalition 
aimed at imposing sanctions on Iran. 
 
"According to yesterday's 'Los Angeles Times,' the White House is 
holding talks with the purpose of creating an alliance of several 
countries that would freeze Iranian assets and restrict commercial 
ties with the country. 
 
"... Russia and China have already expressed their intentions of 
blocking any attempt to impose sanctions on Iran. 
 
"... Reportedly, Washington wants Japanese and European banks to set 
a limit on their business with Iran." 
 
- "Ahmadinejad's show" 
 
Left-of-center "Pagina 12's" international analyst Santiago 
O'Donnell writes (08/27) "... Ahmadinejad is driving George W. Bush 
nuts. Before the war in Lebanon, the US President had obtained, with 
great effort, a UN resolution compelling Tehran to stop its nuclear 
program by August 31 under the threat of sanctions. 
 
"... According to The New York Times, the US is planning to resume 
the plan of old-style unilateral sanctions, pressure on financial 
institutions doing business with Iran, etc. However, according to 
experts, the thing is not that easy. The only sanction that would 
immediately damage the Iranian economy would be a boycott on oil 
imports and investment in the energy because Iran does not have 
enough oil refineries... Nonetheless, with respect to this approach, 
Tehran could sit on its oil barrels, thereby making world oil prices 
skyrocket, which could trigger an international financial crisis. 
 
"Bush wanted something much easier. He wanted UN inspectors to close 
the nuclear plant in Natanz... But Iran, along with its ally 
Hezbollah, has just won the war, and it is not planning to leave its 
incipient nuclear program aside." 
 
- "The UN should not be wrong again" 
 
Leading "Clarin" carries an op-ed page by Agustin M. Romero, 
professor, Master in International Relations, University of Buenos 
Aires, who writes (08/26) "The UN is attempting to organize a force 
to implement Resolution 1701, which seeks a cease fire based on the 
end of Hezbollah's attacks and Israel's military operations in 
Lebanon. Nothing leads us to believe that this mission will have a 
better outcome than those deployed in Lebanon, Rwanda, Somalia and 
Sierra Leona. 
 
"In order to avoid a new failure, the UN should not make the same 
mistakes and it will have to adapt itself to a new international 
scenario. 
 
"The national security paradigm has changed... and now dilemmas come 
from within the States... 
 
"In this framework, the UN should draft a long-term strategy beyond 
currently established governments. 
 
"Secondly, before intervening in a confrontation, the UN should bear 
in mind what its objectives are to establish clear mandates. Neither 
of these two things has been accomplished in Resolution 1701. 
 
"... Once the UN has a clear strategy and objectives, it should 
provide its troops with financing, equipment and infrastructure to 
accomplish those purposes." 
 
- "The US: clouds over an indebted economy" 
 
Oscar Raul Cardoso, international analyst of leading "Clarin," 
opines (08/26) "There is a large group of stubborn US critics, among 
whom we find prestigious economists, who are delighted to see that 
there are signs that could support their eternal speculation about 
an inevitable and imminent decline of the US giant and its power. 
 
"... As never before, and for many understandable reasons, this 
criticism of the US decline gained new impetus when George W. Bush 
took over six years ago. 
 
"Bush brought with him irresponsible fiscal policies. These policies 
only benefited the wealthiest sector of society, favored the 
downward spiral of the trade balance, discouraged the protection of 
natural resources and, as though all this was little, jeopardized 
 
 
world security (invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq). 
 
"Even further, there were crises under the Bush administration such 
as that of 'the new economy', which bet on the revolution of 
communication, just like the scandalous bankruptcies of global 
conglomerates like Enron." 
 
- "'US policy on Cuba is basically a philosophy of punishment'" 
 
Paula Lugones, international analyst of leading "Clarin," interviews 
Soraya Castro Marino, a prestigious Cuban academician (08/27) "While 
Fidel Castro has temporarily left the Cuban government, Soraya 
Castro Marino does not envision changes in the US-Cuban relationship 
in the short term. A researcher at the Center of Studies on the US 
at University of Havana, Castro Marino believes that the White House 
policy on the island is basically a 'philosophy of punishment' and 
that progress will only be possible when a generational change 
occurs both in Cuba and in Miami... 
 
"Asked whether this is a proper time for a change in US-Cuban ties, 
Castro Mario answered 'There will not be any changes. The USG had 
decided not to boost any changes before Fidel Castro's surgery. Last 
month, Washington revealed a document in which it stated it would 
not accept a government led by Raul or Fidel, even if they were 
elected in American-style elections. The White House has said it 
does not want a succession but a transition. The Iraqi program 
prevails - a transition model that will require a series of measures 
such as calling several political parties to free elections.' 
 
"Asked whether she believes that the US encourages a military 
solution, Castro Marino answered that while the war in Iraq showed 
us that the US is willing to act unilaterally, the US situation in 
the Middle East is too complicated to start another military 
conflict along the lines of the Iraqi model not only in Cuba but in 
any other part of the world." 
 
- "Washington funds the Venezuelan opposition" 
 
Conservative "La Prensa" (08/27) reports "The USG is spending 
millions of dollars in the name of the Venezuelan democracy. It 
funds human rights seminars, trains emerging leaders, advises 
political parties and makes donations. 
 
"President Hugo Chavez's supporters suspect that Washington... is 
disbursing thousands of dollars to help the Venezuelan opposition. 
 
"... USG officials insist that the help is mainly legal and 
politically neutral cooperation, and that in the event those who 
receive donations were identified, the Chavez administration would 
chase them. 
 
"However, the Venezuelan president believes that the US is making an 
open as well as a secret campaign to undermine his leftist 
government." 
 
- "US, Asean sign expanded trade and investment pact" 
 
Liberal, English-language "Buenos Aires Herald's" "World trade 
supplement" reports (08/28) "Southeast Asian trade ministers signed 
an expanded trade and investment agreement with the US on Friday 
that calls for a mechanism that allows US imports easier access to 
the region. 
 
"The Trade and Investment Facilitation Arrangement, or TIFA, was 
signed by USTR Susan Schwab and trade and commerce ministers from 
the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations. 
 
"It came a day after the bloc revived free trade talks with India, 
breaking months of deadlock." 
 
- "The US could enter Mercosur through Uruguay" 
 
Alcadio Oa, columnist of leading "Clarin," comments (08/26) "The 
big Mercosur partners (Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela) could find 
themselves in political and economic trouble if Uruguay makes 
progress on a trade deal with the US along the lines of the deal 
Washington reached with Peru. It would not be an FTA, but it would 
be very similar - similar enough to set off serious trouble within 
Mercosur. 
 
"President Tabare Vazquez already said that he will ask for a waiver 
from his partners to speed up negotiations. And the idea of reaching 
a deal along the lines of Peru was a US idea. 
 
"Such a deal would lower tariffs for the mutual entry of goods, 
preferences in governmental purchases, IPR protection, and access to 
 
 
service and investment markets. Some provisions could benefit 
Uruguay, but all of them are in alignment with US policies. The US 
would not jeopardize its farm subsidies. 
 
"... Those points that could bear fruit for Uruguay, would not make 
a major impact on the US economy. It seems remarkable that the US 
interest in the deal is not economic but political." 
 
- "A foreign policy issue" 
 
Daniel Santoro, political columnist of leading "Clarin," writes 
(08/26) "Yesterday, the FBI arrested an American citizen bringing 
explosive elements that had not been detected at Ezeiza airport 
(Buenos Aires). 
 
"Airport security is no longer an international problem but a 
foreign policy issue. The US increasingly demands the implementation 
of more and more security measures at airports where US airplanes 
arrive and then rates them. 
 
"The incident with Howard Mac Farlane Fish is not only due to a 
shortfall in agents from the Airport Security Police, who did not 
see the explosives in his luggage at Ezeiza airport, but also to 
lack of equipment and new technologies. To this, one should add the 
old and inefficient infrastructure of the section of Ezeiza airport 
where luggage is verified before boarding planes." 
 
3. EDITORIALS 
 
- "The use of nuclear threat" 
 
Leading "Clarin" editorializes (08/28) "The proliferation of nuclear 
weapons is the main threat posed to international security... 
 
"Iran is one of the most sensitive cases because its government has 
given signals of its decision to continue enriching uranium as part 
of a rearmament policy. This implies dismissing claims from 
international organizations while maintaining its challenge to the 
US, which asked for the suspension of the nuclear plan... 
 
"Iran's nuclear development introduces another element of tension in 
Central Asia, the Persian Gulf and Middle East, and will impact oil 
prices, thereby disturbing the international economy. For its part, 
the USG did not contribute to improving the situation when it made 
progress on deals with India and Pakistan outside of the Non 
Proliferation Treaty. This implicitly acknowledges that the nuclear 
development of some countries is authorized while for others it is 
not." 
 
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our 
classified website at: 
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires 
 
MATERA