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Viewing cable 06TOKYO4548, DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 08/11/06
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| Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06TOKYO4548 | 2006-08-11 08:35 | 2011-08-25 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Tokyo |
VZCZCXRO7745
PP RUEHFK RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHNH
DE RUEHKO #4548/01 2230835
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 110835Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5276
INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAWJA/USDOJ WASHDC PRIORITY
RULSDMK/USDOT WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J5//
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHMHBA/COMPACFLT PEARL HARBOR HI
RHMFIUU/HQ PACAF HICKAM AFB HI//CC/PA//
RHMFIUU/COMUSJAPAN YOKOTA AB JA//J5/JO21//
RUYNAAC/COMNAVFORJAPAN YOKOSUKA JA
RUAYJAA/COMPATWING ONE KAMI SEYA JA
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA 0201
RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA 7627
RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE 0944
RUEHNAG/AMCONSUL NAGOYA 7458
RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO 8739
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 3724
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 9862
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1564
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 10 TOKYO 004548
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION;
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE;
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN,
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR;
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA.
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 08/11/06
INDEX:
(1) Futenma is not dangerous: US consul general 2
(2) Main points from interview with US Consul General Maher 2
(3) US consul general's remarks show "no feeling for local
residents"; Civic, peace groups angered; Local communities to
protest, call for his resignation 3
(4) Interview with Taku Yamasaki, former LDP vice president: Prime
minister's visit to Yasukuni Shrine on Aug. 15 would cause more
trouble 4
(5) As last resort LDP factions to back Abe in LDP presidential
race, let members cast votes independently; Factions to lose
substance unavoidably 5
(6) Interview with University of Tokyo Professor Kiichi Fujiwara on
foreign and security policies of Koizumi and successor 6
(7) Japan to propose East Asia EPA initiative with eye on
establishment of economic zone comparable to NAFTA, EU: Japan
desperate to take initiative; China, South Korea ahead of Japan 9
ARTICLES:
(1) Futenma is not dangerous: US consul general
RYUKYU SHIMPO (Page 1) (Full)
August 11, 2006
Two years ago on Aug. 13, a US military helicopter crashed on the
campus of Okinawa International University. Ahead of the incident's
second anniversary, Kevin Maher, the newly posted US consul general
in Okinawa, responded with an interview yesterday. Asked about the
US Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station located in a densely populated
area, Maher said Futenma airfield is not special as compared with
other airports in Japan. "I don't think Futenma is dangerous in
particular," he added. Meanwhile, he stressed again that the
airfield would have to be relocated at an early date in order to
resolve local concerns and noise problems.
Ginowan City, which hosts Futenma airfield, and Okinawa Prefecture
have expressed concerns over the danger of Futenma airfield. The
Japanese government has also underscored the necessity of relocating
the airfield as early as possible. As it stands, Maher's remarks
will likely create a stir.
"When we think about functions, there's no need in particular to
relocate Futenma airfield," Maher said in the interview. Maher also
said, "The airfield's (deterrent) capabilities are enough with its
current functions." With this, the consul general, when it comes to
the planned relocation of Futenma airfield, indicated his view that
there would be no problem about the airfield at present from the
perspective of base operation. In addition, Maher also explained
that the United States agreed to relocate Futenma airfield in
consideration of local voices in Okinawa insisting that the airfield
should be relocated.
Referring to the status quo of Futenma airfield, Maher denied that
the airfield is dangerous. However, he stressed that the United
States would push ahead with the planned relocation of Futenma
airfield in accordance with an agreement reached between the
Japanese and US governments. "We understand that they (local
residents) are worried about flying in the skies (over residential
areas)," Maher said. "That's why," he added, "the best solution is
to relocate Futenma airfield to Camp Schwab as soon as possible."
In the wake of the helicopter crash, Japan and the United States
TOKYO 00004548 002 OF 010
have been holding consultations in their intergovernmental joint
committee to reroute US military aircraft (to and from the Camp
Schwab relocation site). Two years later, however, the Japanese and
US governments have yet to reach a conclusion. Asked about this,
Maher indicated that the two governments would release a report in
several weeks.
Maher also stressed that the US military had periodically carried
out coordination on safe flight paths before the crash took place.
"When it comes to whether the flight paths will change in the (joint
committee's) report, I am not sure they will necessarily change."
(2) Main points from interview with US Consul General Maher
RYUKYU SHIMPO (Page 2) (Full)
August 11, 2006
The following is a gist of the Ryukyu Shimpo's interview yesterday
with US Consul General Okinawa Kevin Maher:
-- What steps has the United States taken since the US military
helicopter crash at Okinawa International University?
Maher: We're expecting a report in several weeks (on the
coordination of flight paths). When it comes to whether the flight
paths will change after the report is released, I don't necessarily
know if the flight paths will change. We've periodically made
coordination for the safest possible flight routes.
-- Do you recognize Futenma airfield to be dangerous?
Maher: When we take a look at other airports in Japan, even in the
case of military airports and civilian airports, many of them are
far more densely populated than in the case of Futenma. Futenma is
not special when we look at statistical figures. But if we show such
statistical figures, we can't persuade people living around Futenma.
I know that. We don't think Futenma is a particularly dangerous
airfield. But we know you are worried about flying over the
airfield. So we also think it would be the best way to relocate
Futenma to Camp Schwab as soon as possible. When we think about
functions, there's no need in particular to relocate the airfield.
If Futenma maintains its functions at the present level, its
(deterrent) capabilities are enough.
-- There are that many buildings near Futenma. Even so, do you think
there is no problem about flying helicopters?
Maher: The problem is that there's the noise problem, looking at it
from the perspective in the surrounding area. We often hear that
they are worried about safety or opposed to the airfield. We know
that, so we think it would be better to relocate Futenma. The area
is now densely populated, so there was a request from Okinawa at
first. After hearing that request, the United States also judged it
would be better to relocate Futenma as soon as possible so as not to
trouble local communities.
(3) US consul general's remarks show "no feeling for local
residents"; Civic, peace groups angered; Local communities to
protest, call for his resignation
RYUKYU SHIMPO (Page 3) (Abridged)
Eve., August 11, 2006
TOKYO 00004548 003 OF 010
US Consul General Kevin Maher, currently posted in Okinawa
Prefecture, brought about a backlash today from local communities in
the vicinity of the US Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station over his
remarks in a recent Ryukyu Shimpo interview held nearly two years
after the crash of a (Futenma-based) US military helicopter on the
campus of Okinawa International University. "I don't think Futenma
airfield is dangerous in particular," Maher said in the interview.
"Actually," one local resident voiced his anger, "an accident took
place." He stated, "The remark is unacceptable." A peace group in
the prefecture also said, "The remark has fueled the anger of local
people at the helicopter crash, so we will file a severe protest."
With this, the group will strongly call for Maher to resign.
Touching on the crash of a US military chopper at Okinawa
International University in 2004, Zenji Shimada, who heads a group
of local residents in a class action lawsuit against Futenma
airfield's aircraft roars, noted that Maher must have been aware of
the helicopter crash. "In extreme terms," Shimada said, "he is
telling us to live in danger." He added, "That goes beyond a
perception gap." He indicated he was infuriated.
"Even Defense Secretary Rumsfeld recognized the airfield to be
dangerous. So it's strange that the consul general here said such a
thing. He doesn't think of people in the city of Ginowan as humans."
This critical comment came from a local community chief of Ginowan
City exposed to Futenma airfield's terrible noise.
"A helicopter from Futenma base crashed at the university, and we
were terrified," said a 46-year-old woman living along the fence of
Futenma base. She went on, "No matter how many years may pass, this
will remain a scar in our hearts." She added: "The Japanese and US
governments have acknowledged the danger of Futenma base, and they
have agreed to relocate the base. He has distorted the fact with the
US government's selfish logic."
A local peace group leader said, "A helicopter actually crashed, but
he says the airfield is not dangerous." He continued: "It's
outrageous to think that way. He means to say he wouldn't care even
if people in the prefecture were killed by US military bases. He
doesn't think over those incidents and accidents brought about by US
military personnel in the prefecture. That's the US military
first."
(4) Interview with Taku Yamasaki, former LDP vice president: Prime
minister's visit to Yasukuni Shrine on Aug. 15 would cause more
trouble
YOMIURI (Page 4) (Full)
August 11, 2006
Questioner: Rumor has it that Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi will
visit Yasukuni Shrine on Aug. 15.
Yamasaki: Since the prime minister's Yasukuni visits cause many
problems, I once said that he should not go. I think he is not at
all aware he is doing something wrong and believes he has just
implemented the pledge (to visit the shrine) he made in the Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election. He is acting based on
his beliefs.
Questioner: Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe paid homage at the
shrine in April.
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Yamasaki: I don't understand why he went there secretly. He might
have thought that his Yasukuni visit would cause some problems.
Questioner: China and South Korea have refused to hold summit
meetings due to the prime minister's visits to Yasukuni Shrine.
Yamasaki: That's their choice. Interference in internal affairs will
change nothing.
Questioner: How do you view a former Imperial Household Agency
chief's memo writing that Emperor Showa expressed displeasure with
the enshrinement of Class-A war criminals in Yasukuni?
Yamasaki: I think it's significant in the sense that the memo makes
it clear that the enshrinement of Class-A war criminals was the
reason for (the Emperor Showa's cancellation of Yasukuni visits). I
think Class-A war criminals should be unenshrined, but that's
something for Yasukuni to decide on. Since there is a view in the
Japan War-Bereaved Families Association calling for removing the
Class-A war criminals from Yasukuni Shrine, I am watching
developments.
Questioner: You have advocated the need for a new memorial
facility.
Yamasaki: There is a limit to making Yasukuni Shrine the only
national war memorial. Ordinary citizens who died in war are not
enshrined in Yasukuni. I think it is good to have a national
memorial at which everybody can pay homage without feeling
uncomfortable.
Questioner: One idea is that the Chidorigafuchi National Cemetery
should be expanded.
Yamasaki: Since the idea is designed to make the cemetery a park, I
think that's a good idea. There are three candidate sites:
Kitanomaru Park, Shinjuku-gyoen, and Chidorigafuchi.
Questioner: How about the idea of turning Yasukuni Shrine into a
nonreligious corporation?
Yamasaki: We tried to do so by making the so-called Yasukuni Shrine
Bill (designed to place the Shinto shrine under the state control).
I think Yasukuni Shrine will oppose it. Doing so would also be
constitutionally difficult. I think turning the shrine into a
nonreligious corporation would be more difficult than unenshrining
Class-A war criminals from the shrine. This is easier said than
done, though.
(5) As last resort LDP factions to back Abe in LDP presidential
race, let members cast votes independently; Factions to lose
substance unavoidably
NIHON KEIZAI (Page 2) (Full)
August 11, 2006
With the lineup of candidates for the September Liberal Democratic
Party (LDP) presidential election generally decided, LDP factions
having no presidential candidate have made up their mind as to what
kind of action they should take. As last resort to maintain
factional unity, they have considered two measures: One is to back
Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe in the presidential race; and the
other is to let their members cast their votes independently. Since
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factions are unable to get key posts as they used to in the old days
in return for their support, the LDP's factions will inevitably
further lose significance in the upcoming presidential race.
"If Mr. Nukaga wants to run in the race at any cost, I will have to
support him, but we should not let him do run," yesterday said Mikio
Aoki, chairman of the LDP caucus in the House of Councilors and
influential member of the Tsushima faction. Aoki revealed that
Defense Agency chief Fukushiro Nukaga had all but given up on
running in the race. Aoki and Yuji Tsushima, who heads a LDP faction
to which Nukaga and Aoki belong, held a meeting with Nukaga and
conveyed him the faction's policy, letting Nukaga determine whether
he would run or not. The expectation is that Nukaga will soon
announce his intention not to run and that the faction will let its
members decide on how to vote.
The Tsushima faction -- led at one time by such powerful prime
ministers as Kakuei Tanaka and Noboru Takeshita -- has now
completely changed. Since some junior and mid-level members have
distanced themselves from the faction, the move to field Nukaga in
the presidential race never became a mighty swell for uniting the
faction. In a study session yesterday, the faction adopted a set of
policy proposals, titled "Creation and Crystallization of New
Power."
Regarding the prime minister's visits to Yasukuni Shrine, the report
points out that it is necessary to give consideration to those who
died in the war, preventing the issue from becoming a diplomatic
issue. It does not refer to the propriety of visits to Yasukuni
Shrine by the prime minister, making it easy for its members to
support Abe. It also emphasizes the need for measures for
"single-seat constituencies" in the Upper House election next year.
In a meeting yesterday of the Yamasaki faction, LDP acting policy
chief stressed: "It is certain that an Abe government will be
inaugurated. Our faction needs a communication channel to the new
government. I will back Mr. Abe," Taku Yamasaki said, "I will listen
to the faction's view." In the Yamasaki faction, in addition to
Amari, LDP Secretary General Tsutomu Takebe and Yoshinori Ono have
decided to back Abe. If Yamasaki runs in the race, the faction will
unavoidably split. Yamasaki will therefore give up on running. He
will announce in a faction meeting on Aug. 17 his intention not to
run for the presidency.
Bunmei Ibuki, who heads another LDP faction, told reporters
yesterday that his faction would support Abe. The faction will
formally decide in a meeting on Aug. 24 to back Abe. Prior to
yesterday's meeting, Ibuki met with LDP Policy Research Council
Chairman Hidenao Nakagawa, who is close to Abe, and explained his
faction's policy proposals. Abe then told reporters yesterday that
he could agree with policy proposals made by the Ibuki faction.
In the Niwa-Koga faction, Makoto Koga, who was an active leader of
the anti-Abe group, has now shifted to being an Abe supporter. Most
of the faction members back Abe even though some support Finance
Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki and Foreign Minister Taro Aso. At a
meeting last night, junior and mid-level lawmakers from the
Niwa-Koga, Tanigaki and former Kono factions confirmed that they
would not hold any meeting before the presidential election.
Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Toshihiro Nikai conveyed Takebe
in early this month of his support for Abe.
They appear to be trying to get key government and LDP posts by
TOKYO 00004548 006 OF 010
announcing their support for Abe.
(6) Interview with University of Tokyo Professor Kiichi Fujiwara on
foreign and security policies of Koizumi and successor
ASAHI (Page 11) (Full)
August 10, 2006
Priority to US
Koizumi uses US as tool for domestic affairs, foreign policy lacks
strategy
-- In the five years under the Koizumi administration, tectonic
movement has taken place in international politics, as represented
by the launch of the so-called long war by the Bush administration
in the wake of the terrorist attacks on the United States on Sept.
ΒΆ11. How do you evaluate the foreign policy of the Koizumi
administration?
To put it plainly, there has been no "Koizumi diplomacy." He is a
politician with expertise on domestic policies. He is said to have
contributed to strengthening relations with the US. Prime Minister
Koizumi is often compared with former Prime Minister Nakasone, who
also placed importance on the US. But Prime Minister Nakasone also
succeeded in establishing favorable ties with China. He considered
how to use the US as a "diplomatic tool" to enhance Japan's national
interests.
For Prime Minister Koizumi, though, the US is a "tool for domestic
affairs." The prime minister winning trust from the US president can
exert overwhelming influence over domestic politics in the nation.
There is something deep in what Prime Minister Koizumi says
regarding domestic politics. But foreign policy is low on his list
of priorities, and his diplomatic approaches are makeshift.
-- A former senior member of the Bush administration also said: "His
diplomatic style lacks strategy." But the prime minister made
important policy decisions; for instance, he changed the Japan-US
alliance in nature.
Japan's conventional foreign policy was based on the Yoshida
doctrine of placing emphasis on light armaments and the Japan-US
alliance. Japan depended on US nuclear deterrence in dealing with
matters involving the Far East but implemented its own policy based
on economic cooperation toward other regions. But Prime Minister
Koizumi judged it necessary to use Washington's power in order for
Japan to exert influence over other countries. Security and economic
cooperation used to be the two main pillars in Japan's diplomacy,
but Japan dropped the latter. In this respect, a historical change
is taking place.
-- Stressing "the Japan-US alliance in the global context," the
government dispatched Self-Defense Force troops to Afghanistan and
Iraq.
Tackled under the Japan-US alliance and the Japan-US Security Treaty
were issues involving China, Taiwan, and North Korea. The US was
somewhat reluctant to deal with issues unrelated to these countries,
such as peace construction. After 9/11, however, the US became eager
to intervene in regional disputes, and the question emerged of how
far Japan should be involved in conflicts in areas other than the
Far East under the Japan-US alliance. Prime Minister Koizumi gave
TOKYO 00004548 007 OF 010
this very clear reply: "We will do it."
If Prime Minister Koizumi said it is better to accept Washington's
requests in order to maintain the Japan-US alliance or that he
should not make the same mistake former Prime Minister Kaifu did in
the 1991 Gulf War, he could convince me. But he believes that close
military cooperation between Japan and the US is in Japan's national
interest. I cannot understand this.
-- Japan and the US agreed on common regional and global strategic
goals for US force realignment and decided to carry out wide-ranging
cooperation.
Even when the current President Bush's father was president, there
was the perception that it was impossible to arrange a post-Cold War
security system unless the state of the concentrated deployment of
US military troops in Germany, South Korea, and Japan is changed.
Although the US military will continue stepping back from Asia,
Japan promised to offer cooperation in areas that have nothing to do
with Asia's safety. This promise may impose a heavy burden on Japan
in the future.
Asia policy
Using ASEAN to try to contain China
-- Another element causing these tectonic shifts is an emerging
China.
China has long put in efforts for its military buildup. China has
expanded its naval power and is now ready to even upgrade its
nuclear force. Regarding China's role, a remarkable change has been
observed in the economic arena. China is now Japan's largest trading
partner, and though the members of the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN) had close economic relations with Japan, they
have now turned their attention to China.
-- What was Japan doing while China was rapidly strengthening its
influence in Asia?
I think it was a blank period in Japanese politics. As a result of
each country becoming more affluent, Japan's economic cooperation
policy came to a standstill. Although Japan had to come up with a
new strategy to replace its dependence on economic cooperation, the
policy vacuum continued. In addition, the Yasukuni issue has
worsened the situation further.
-- Growing nationalism in Japan and China is one of the recent
features.
Nationalism in China has gradually changed. In the 1990s, China used
the historical-perception issue as a means to win support for the
Chinese Communist Party. It was not something that came from the
grassroots. The situation is more serious now. Though China is not
democratizing, it is becoming more complex, and that country is
entering a volatile period. The people are calling on the government
to take a tough stance toward Japan. But views in the Chinese
government are split. For the People's Liberation Army and the
Communist Party's Ideology Department, it is desirable to turn Japan
into an enemy. Economic technocrats, though, would like to see their
state turned into not a military power but an economic power,
In Japan, on the other hand, those in business circles view the
TOKYO 00004548 008 OF 010
Yasukuni issue blocking policy talks between Japan and China as
abnormal. For those who want to emphasize the "China threat," it is
convenient to have China criticize Yasukuni Shrine. Inward-looking
nationalism in both countries has worked to strengthen nationalism
in the other.
-- North Korea's nuclear and missile issues are also serious. When
the North launched missiles in July, Japan took a tough stance in
the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and succeeded in having a
resolution condemning Pyongyang. Some observers in Japan regard it
as a victory for Japanese diplomacy.
It cannot be regarded as a victory, though, because China did not
come on board due to Japanese threats. The US, with no intention of
making an enemy of China, worked to woo Beijing. Should China use
its veto, the North Korea issue will not be resolved in the UNSC.
The US determined that it would be better to draw China into the
matter. There are differences in interest between Japan and the US,
and Japan taking a hard-line stance was cleverly used by the US, I
think.
-- Prime Minister Koizumi signed the Pyongyang Declaration when he
visited North Korea in 2002 and brought five abductees back to
Japan. Later, their families were also taken to Japan.
It was right to have brought the abductee families back to Japan.
From the standpoint of international relations, though, it looks
slightly different. North Korea unprecedentedly acknowledged it had
been involved in the abductions. If the North had also made
concessions on its nuclear and missile programs, Japan's approach
would have been judged successful.
-- What do you think is the most important diplomatic challenge for
Koizumi's successor?
I think it is China. In China, there are groups willing to respond
to Japan's proposals. But their position has been weakened due to
the Yasukuni issue. I think the best thing to do would be to create
a national war memorial, but at the least Japan should separately
enshrine Class-A war criminals and then start policy coordination
with China. It is an abnormal state for the two major economic
powers in Asia to have no policy talks. Such a situation is
undesirable for the US and other countries.
It is also imperative to deepen cooperation with ASEAN countries.
Japan as a creditor nation has direct influence over debtor
countries' economies. By taking the initiative in deregulating
direct investment and opening its labor market, Japan would be able
to bring ASEAN closer once again. ASEAN also fears China. Japan
should make use of its relations with ASEAN and try to hold China in
check.
-- How about North Korea policy?
Top priority should be given to denuclearization. In the long run,
it is necessary to denuclearize China as well. It is impossible to
do it immediately, but in the 1970s, the US and the Soviet Union
engaged in nuclear arms control, and the situation should be brought
to this level. From the position of an atomic-bombed nation, Japan
should insist on the need for denuclearization and take the
initiative in dealing with North Korea.
-- How about the alliance relationship with the US?
TOKYO 00004548 009 OF 010
That is difficult. Japan has promised a wide range of cooperation in
areas outside the Far East and played too many of its cards. No
country wants to send its troops to Lebanon, for example, but if the
US asked Japan to send the Self-Defense Forces, what would Japan
do?
(7) Japan to propose East Asia EPA initiative with eye on
establishment of economic zone comparable to NAFTA, EU: Japan
desperate to take initiative; China, South Korea ahead of Japan
MAINICHI (Page 9) (Full)
August 11, 2006
The government will formally propose an East Asia economic
partnership agreement (EPA) initiative at an ASEAN+3 economic
ministerial to be held in Malaysia later this month. The proposals
is for 16 countries - the 10 ASEAN member nations together with
Japan, China, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand - to
sign an EPA to form an economic zone equal to the North American
Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the European Union (EU). However,
China and some other countries will likely oppose the
Japan-sponsored plan. Future talks on the issue will likely
encounter complications.
Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) Minister Toshihiro Nikai will
attend the meeting. He will propose establishing a
private-sector-level study panel to discuss the economic zone
initiative. The proposal will likely be accepted. Japan wants to
launch talks around 2009.
The initiative was included in the global strategy METI mapped out
this April. Japan has already signed EPAs with Singapore, Mexico,
and Malaysia. METI has calculated that the initiative, if realized,
would boost gross domestic product within the region by
approximately 25 trillion yen.
Behind the proposal is a sense of alarm that Japan is lagging behind
China and South Korea in its drive to sign trade agreements. Both
China and South Korea have already agreed with ASEAN to conclude
FTAs. While Japan still in the process of holding negotiations,
China and South Korea are gradually increasing their presence in the
ASEAN market, which had long been Japan's stronghold. Japan is
becoming impatient with the situation.
There is also a move by China to propose a framework of the 10 ASEAN
members plus Japan, China, and South Korea. However, convinced that
this would involve the strong possibility of China dominating the
group, Japan is aiming to check China's influence by offering its
own plan that includes India, Australia, and New Zealand.
However, there are many obstacles to clear before it is realized. A
precondition for starting talks to discuss the proposal is that
Japan has a stable economic relationship with China and South Korea.
However, EPA talks between Japan and South Korea have been
suspended. Regarding China, there are no prospects even for starting
talks. It is difficult to start full-fledged talks as long as
Japan's diplomatic relations with those countries remain cool. Many
Japanese farmers are alarmed about possible liberalization of farm
products if Australia takes part in the initiative. Also, ASEAN
members are at different levels of development, making it difficult
to set liberalization rules.
TOKYO 00004548 010 OF 010
Progress of EPA talks by Japan
Partner
Progress, Feature
Already signed
Singapore
Came into effect in 2002. Japan's first EPA.
Mexico
Came into effect in 2005. Includes farm produce liberalization.
Malaysia
Came into effect in 2006. Tariffs on all mined and manufactured
products effectively scrapped.
Agreement in general principle
Philippines
Agreement in general principle reached in 2004. Includes acceptance
of guest workers.
Thailand
Agreement in general principle reached in 2005.
Under negotiation
ASEAN
Talks started in 2005. Agreement within two years aimed at.
Indonesia
Talks started in 2005. Discussions cover resources, such as natural
gas.
Brunei
Talks started in 2006. Stable supply of oil aimed at.
Chile
Talks started in 2006. Stable supply of copper and other products
aimed at.
In preparation
Gulf Cooperation Council members
FTA talks expected to start in 2006. Importance placed on securing
resources.
India
Preparatory meetings are over. Cooperation with a growing market.
Vietnam
Consideration started in 2006. Challenge is to consolidate
investment environment.
Talks suspended
South Korea
Talks have been suspended since 2004.
SCHIEFFER