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Viewing cable 06MEXICO4707, CHIAPAS GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION: PRD LEADS BY A

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06MEXICO4707 2006-08-21 23:12 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Mexico
VZCZCXRO6681
RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #4707/01 2332312
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 212312Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2810
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RHMFIUU/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUEAHLA/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY
RHMFIUU/CDR USNORTHCOM
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 004707 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MX
SUBJECT: CHIAPAS GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION:  PRD LEADS BY A 
RAZOR-THIN MARGIN 
 
1. (U) Summary.  With over 94 percent of the votes counted as 
of noon August 21 in the Chiapas gubernatorial race, PRD 
candidate Juan Sabines Guerrero had a 0.22% lead over 
PRI-PVEM rival Jose Antonio Aguilar Bodegas, who is also 
endorsed by the PAN.  However, there are still enough votes 
left to be counted to leave the final outcome in doubt. 
Following the August 20 election, each candidate declared 
himself the winner.  Sabines remarked that he is open to 
reconciliation with the PAN.  Aguilar complained of 
irregularities and said he would challenge the results in 
court.  End Summary. 
 
2. (U) On August 20, voters in Chiapas went to the polls to 
cast their ballots for their next governor.  The leading 
candidates are the PRD's Juan Sabines Guerrero and the PRI's 
Jose Antonio Aguilar Bodegas, also representing the Green 
Party (PVEM).  Ten days before the election, candidates from 
the PAN and New Alliance (PANAL) parties withdrew from the 
race and expressed support for PRI-PVEM candidate, in order 
to present a stronger opposition bloc to the PRD. 
Campaigning for Sabines in Chiapas the day before the 
campaign closed, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador described the 
unprecedented PRI-PVEM-PAN-PANAL alliance as "immoral." 
 
PRD Candidate Slightly Ahead 
---------------------------- 
 
3. (U) As of noon August 21, with just over 94% of the votes 
counted, PRD candidate Sabines enjoys a slight lead over 
Aguilar with 517,037 votes (48.39%), and 514,737 votes 
(48.17%) for Aguilar.  Nevertheless with nearly six percent 
of the vote left to be counted, and given the narrowness of 
the margin, the final outcome remains in doubt.  Despite the 
withdrawal of PAN candidate Francisco Rojas Toledo and PANAL 
candidate Emilio Zebadua to support Aguilar, their names were 
still on the ballot, with PAN's Rojas receiving 27,363 votes 
(2.58%) and PANAL's Zebadua receiving 3233 votes (0.3%). 
Districts still in dispute are San Cristobal de las Casas, 
Ocosingo, Pichucalco, Tonala, and Tenejapa.  Voter 
participation in the election is estimated at 44.6%. 
 
Both PRI and PRD Candidates Claim Victory 
----------------------------------------- 
 
4. (U) The night of the election, with 30% of the vote 
counted, both PRD and PRI candidates claimed victory.  PRD 
representatives stated that their candidate had won the 
election with a margin of between 5-7 points, according to 
campaign exit polls.  Meanwhile, the PRI camp stated their 
exit polls showed their candidate ahead by about two 
percentage points. 
 
5. (U) PRI's Aguilar told reporters that his "victory" shows 
the public's will to defeat the "State Election" ("Election 
de Estado"), referring to incumbent Governor Salazar's open 
support for Sabines' during the campaign.  On the other hand, 
after claiming victory, PRD's Sabines told reporters that he 
is open to reconciliation with the PAN, including the 
possibility of "governing together." 
 
Irregularities Reported 
----------------------- 
 
6. (U) About 1000 national and foreign observers monitored 
the election.  So far, the Electoral Institute of Chiapas has 
reported 241 "inconsistencies."  "We have documented many 
irregularities" one Mexican Electoral Observation official 
told El Universal, "including busing in voters, giving them 
handouts in different zones and other tactics to secure the 
vote for PRD candidate Sabines." 
 
7. (U) Mexican newspapers also reported that four men were 
arrested for electoral law violations, including prominent 
labor leader Francisco de Jesus Torres who had earlier said 
that his teacher's union of 48,000 members would not support 
Sabines.  According to El Universal, Torres was allegedly 
carrying 50,000 pesos (approximately USD 5000) to buy votes 
for the PRI candidate. 
 
8. (U) Moreover, the Electoral Institute has requested the 
federal attorney general to investigate a recording of an 
alleged phone call between national PAN leader Manuel Espino 
and a PRI delegate in Chiapas discussing money to buy votes. 
Local PAN spokesperson has denied the authenticity of the 
 
MEXICO 00004707  002 OF 002 
 
 
tape. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
9. (SBU) Before even the first vote was cast, AMLO announced 
that the only way Aguilar could possibly defeat Sabines was 
through fraud.  Accordingly, should the PRI-PVEM-PAN alliance 
pull off a surprise victory, it would likely spur claims of 
fraud from the PRD and would probably add energy to AMLO's 
challenge of the outcome of the presidential election.  On 
the other hand, if Sabines wins the election, it appears that 
Aguilar will challenge the results in court using some of the 
same arguments as AMLO has in the presidential race.  This 
election is another example of -- and may itself contribute 
to -- Mexico's increasing political polarization. 
 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity 
 
GARZA