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Viewing cable 06MEXICO4619, ASSESSING OAXACA,S POLITICAL CRISIS

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06MEXICO4619 2006-08-17 23:44 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Mexico
VZCZCXRO3733
RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #4619/01 2292344
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 172344Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2750
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHMFIUU/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RHMFIUU/CDR USNORTHCOM
RUEAHLA/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MEXICO 004619 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON ELAB PINR PGOV MX
SUBJECT: ASSESSING OAXACA,S POLITICAL CRISIS 
 
REF: A. MEXICO 3962 
 
     B. MEXICO 4534 
     C. MEXICO 4535 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: In the past week, the complex political 
crisis in Oaxaca has worsened, with four people killed in two 
separate incidents and protestors pledging to intensify their 
civil disobedience campaign demanding that PRI Governor 
Ulises Ruiz resign or be removed from office.  Tension is 
most severe in Oaxaca City, the center of the protest 
movement, with other parts of the state less affected.  As 
the governor becomes increasingly isolated, his ability to 
govern Oaxaca fades.  Prospects for a negotiated solution in 
the near-term have dimmed with local teachers' union leaders 
refusing to meet with federal Secretary of Government 
officials and saying they will only accept mediation from the 
Secretary of Government himself.  The ongoing crisis has led 
 
SIPDIS 
to a significant decline in tourist revenues and the 
cancellation of the start of primary school this month.  The 
Oaxaca demonstrations appear unrelated to ongoing PRD 
protests in Mexico City.  End summary. 
 
Background to current crisis 
---------------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) Ulises Ruiz won the 2004 gubernatorial race by a 
very narrow margin, beating a popular (including among 
Oaxaca's sophisticated middle class) PRD-coalition candidate, 
Gabino Cue.  Many political observers consider that election 
to have been fraudulent.  Ruiz, a close friend of 
presidential candidate Roberto Madrazo, followed a terribly 
unpopular PRI governor, Jose Murat, into power.  Many local 
residents believe that rather than spend money on needed 
economic programs, Ruiz directed public funds to the Madrazo 
campaign.  He operated in a manner that alienated much of the 
already frustrated population, and as a result now finds 
himself in a stalemate with an increasingly radicalized 
protest movement. 
 
3. (SBU) Rosanna Fuentes, editor of the Spanish edition of 
Foreign Affairs magazine, told poloff that Ruiz failed to 
incorporate into his program of government the grievances of 
his opponent's constituents and was not politically skilled 
to build the coalitions he needed to effectively govern.  The 
governor's miscalculation in using force against the 
protestors on June 14 caused an acute backlash, with up to 
3,000 members of civil society and radical organizations 
joining the teachers' protest under the umbrella of the 
People's Popular Assembly of Oaxaca (APPO) (reftel).  What 
was a routine teacher strike morphed into a broader, 
politicized movement demanding the governor's ouster.  A 
Zapotec student told poloff that on June 14, "we learned we 
could confront the government and hold our ground." 
 
Protest's objectives 
-------------------- 
 
4. (SBU) The latest round of protests began in May as part of 
a now-annual ritual in which state teachers demand improved 
salaries and benefits, with protesters later adding the 
demand that Governor Ruiz be removed from power.  However, 
the dissident teachers' union led by Enrique Rueda Pacheco 
and organizations represented by the APPO are distinct. 
Pro-democracy forces have been working for decades to wrest 
control away from the PRI, and the Oaxaca protest is the 
latest manifestation of this effort.  Teachers, farmer 
organizations, intellectuals, student groups, leftists, and 
radicals have all come together under the banner of calling 
for the governor's removal.  Beyond this common cause, these 
organizations have disparate interests, ideologies and 
tactics. 
 
Oaxaca's unfolding political crisis 
----------------------------------- 
 
5. (SBU) On August 17, doctors, nurses, and other health care 
professionals in Oaxaca began a general strike of indefinite 
duration.  On August 13, an estimated 5,000 people conducted 
a silent march through Oaxaca City, demanding justice in the 
case of the unexplained murder of Jose Jimenez, husband of a 
striking teacher, and reiterating their demand that Governor 
Ruiz resign.  On August 10, Jimenez was killed by gunmen 
occupying a nearby building that was subsequently set on fire 
by protestors.  An APPO spokesperson blamed the governor for 
directing the shooting, a charge which the governor's office 
 
MEXICO 00004619  002 OF 004 
 
 
has denied.  Protestors held four people hostage following 
the incident, accusing them of participating in the shooting. 
 On August 9, unknown gunmen killed three Triqui Indians, 
including a 12-year old boy, believed to have been headed to 
the Oaxaca City protests.  The motivation of the killings is 
not known, although many observers believe they were 
associated with the unrest.  Also on August 9, gunmen 
attacked a local newspaper, Noticias, which has been critical 
of the governor.  Observers speculate this was done by 
mercenaries loyal to Ruiz.  On August 3, a driver was beaten 
when he resisted the hijacking of his official vehicle, part 
of a wider campaign to hijack public vehicles and threaten to 
burn them in order to increase pressure on the governor. 
 
6. (SBU) Last week's killings were the first in the three 
month-old protest and appear to mark a serious escalation. 
Until now, the demonstrations have been largely peaceful. 
The protesters have sporadically shut down city streets as 
well as the highways to Mexico City and the airport, blocked 
federal and state government buildings, taken over the local 
television station, and turned the normally picturesque 
zocalo (central square) into a mass encampment.  However, a 
walk through the zocalo, where most restaurants have clients 
and shops and street vendors have buyers, suggests that press 
reports of vandalism and economic damage have been 
exaggerated. 
 
7. (SBU) The intensity of the protest ebbs and flows.  In the 
capital city, police are scarce -- perhaps intentionally, to 
avoid possible confrontations with protesters -- and city 
services have diminished.  Tourists appear safe, but the city 
center is uncomfortable to travel in.  There were only a few 
thousand protestors in Oaxaca City when poloff visited the 
week of August 7, with most of the striking teachers having 
left on vacation; although union leaders have asked them to 
return, their numbers reportedly are much reduced from 
earlier in the strike.  While the protests have been focused 
in Oaxaca City, union leaders have called for their extension 
throughout the state.  Every area of Oaxaca has been 
affected, since the union's 70,000 teachers come from all 
communities. 
 
8. (SBU) A Mexican professor told poloff she believes 20-30 
percent of the teachers are "true believers" in the protests. 
 However, many others lack enthusiasm for continuing the 
strike, but have little choice other than do what they are 
told by union leaders.  The result: education at the 
elementary and middle school levels has ground to a halt. 
Students lost a month of school in May; with the ongoing 
protests, they are missing the start of school in mid-August 
with no assurance of when classes will resume.  A 
Oaxaca-based sociologist told poloff that while most Oaxacans 
support the teachers' cause, some feel the teachers have lost 
their way and question the union's methods, considered a 
relic of the PRI era. 
 
Extremist elements on both sides 
-------------------------------- 
 
9. (SBU) Militant elements on both sides of the conflict may 
be willing to resort to violence, although they enjoy almost 
no public support.  Within the protest movement, a handful of 
young anarchists (mostly students) have commandeered buses, 
blocked roads, and are possibly responsible for burning 
vehicles.  There are also some militant peasant organizations 
whose members have come to Oaxaca City carrying wooden clubs 
and metal pipes for defensive purposes.  On the 
"pro-governor" side, local media organizations charge they 
have been intimidated by mercenaries and other militants, who 
some contacts speculate were also responsible for the August 
10 killing of Jose Jimenez.  Poloff also heard rumors that 
former governor Jose Murat is involved in supporting various 
militant groups.  As a local journalist told poloff, "it's 
easy to create chaos in this situation.  If someone wants to 
act violently, there's no one to stop them." 
 
An isolated governor 
-------------------- 
 
10. (SBU) Amidst the ongoing protest, contacts told poloff 
that the governor has lost legitimacy and faces an 
increasingly desperate situation.  The academic dean of 
Oaxaca's Benito Juarez Autonomous University said that Ruiz 
is isolated and looking for a way out.  He doesn't want to 
resign, but his ability to govern is greatly diminished and 
 
MEXICO 00004619  003 OF 004 
 
 
it appears increasingly unlikely that he will regain his lost 
authority.  Because protestors have blocked the governor's 
office, Ruiz and his staff are now working out of a hotel. 
Some observers were surprised that he hasn't resigned yet and 
suggest he could order forceful action against the protestors 
in the coming days with the goal of provoking federal 
intervention.  A Oaxaca-based journalist speculated that, in 
the current highly-charged environment, Ruiz's physical 
security could even be under threat. 
 
11. (SBU) The following scenarios are possible if the 
governor steps down or is removed from office.  If Ruiz 
resigns before December (before his two year mark in office), 
then the PRI-controlled state congress would appoint an 
interim governor and call for a new election; given the 
current political climate, a PRD-candidate would probably 
win.  If Ruiz resigns after December, the state congress 
would vote for a new governor  -- likely a PRIista -- to 
complete his term (Note: the PRI holds 23 out of 42 seats in 
the state congress.  End note).  Alternatively, the federal 
congress could vote to remove Ruiz from office and then 
choose his successor.  Under this scenario, observers suggest 
that the PRI and PAN might work out a deal for the successor 
to be a PRI governor in exchange for PRI cooperation in the 
national congress.  Another option would involve Ruiz asking 
for a leave from office, in which case an interim governor 
would be named, elections would not be held, and the congress 
would choose a successor in December to complete Ruiz's term 
if he did not return from leave. 
 
Dim prospects for a negotiated solution 
--------------------------------------- 
 
12. (SBU) There are few signs of progress at the state level 
toward a negotiated solution to Oaxaca's political crisis. 
Each side has hardened its respective position, complicating 
the chance for a settlement.  Previous mediation efforts have 
failed.  The leaders of the protest movement say they will 
accept nothing less than the governor's resignation or 
removal from power; meanwhile, the governor has offered no 
indication he would step down.  The key actor may be the 
federal government, which until now has wisely refused to 
intervene militarily and has called instead for a political 
settlement, even if it has been slow to respond on a 
political level.  Local teachers' union leaders have rejected 
a meeting with a visiting delegation of federal Secretary of 
Government (SEGOB) officials, saying the offer comes too late 
and that they will only accept mediation from the Secretary 
of Government himself, the Office of the President, or the 
National Senate.  Mediation by the federal government would 
bring the best hope for a negotiated solution. 
 
Little connection to Mexico City sit-in 
--------------------------------------- 
 
13. (SBU) The Oaxaca situation has its own dynamic, 
objectives, and leadership distinct from the PRD protests in 
Mexico City, although the local PRD is lending moral and, 
allegedly, financial support.  The teachers union and APPO 
are "extra-party" organizations whose main grievance has been 
with Governor Ruiz and the PRI, not the PAN, which has a 
limited presence in Oaxaca.  They successfully mobilized 
during the recent elections to oust the PRI from much of the 
state's government.  However, most Oaxacan protestors are 
part of social movements generally suspicious of electoral 
politics.  A professor at UNAM said that while he doesn't see 
a connection between the Oaxaca and Mexico City protests, 
"both situations reveal the failings of the present 
governments (state and federal) to satisfy the basic demands 
of the poor." 
 
Economy suffers 
--------------- 
 
14. (SBU) The Mexican Employers Federation estimates that 
tourism to Oaxaca is down 75 percent as a result of the 
ongoing protest, with revenue loss estimates varying from 
$45-$60 million.  Some of this loss has been generated by an 
exaggerated media reaction.  An AP story that erroneously 
reported that checkpoints had been set up for tourists 
probably cost Oaxaca City millions of dollars in lost 
tourism.  While Oaxaca City has been hurt economically, the 
informal economy has continued to function largely unaffected 
by the strikes and the formal sector is treading water with 
the continuing, albeit significantly reduced, tourist crowd. 
 
MEXICO 00004619  004 OF 004 
 
 
Since the teachers strike annually in May and June, those 
months were not anomalies for Oaxaca's economy.  However, the 
continuation of the strikes hurt businesses badly in July, 
when the annual Guelaguetza festival was cancelled.  Apart 
from nearby villages whose economies are connected to Oaxaca 
City's tourism industry, the economy in the rest of Oaxaca 
state, including coastal tourist resorts, appears largely 
unchanged by the protests. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
15. (SBU) Teachers union and APPO leaders have capitalized on 
public resentment toward the governor following the events of 
June 14.  The protestors are angry and well-organized.  This 
staying power gives credibility to their stated refusal to 
end the protest until Ruiz is out of office.  Despite anger 
toward the governor, most Oaxacans are accustomed to social 
peace and many outside APPO and the teachers union want a 
quicker resolution of the political crisis.  The protestors 
know they want Ruiz out, but an unanswered question is who 
could unite the multiplicity of forces calling for his ouster 
and replace him. 
 
16. (SBU) Comment continued: While the movement to oust the 
governor is statewide, prospects for violence are limited to 
Oaxaca City and a few contested municipalities.  At this 
point, it is difficult to see an exit to this tense standoff. 
 The more radical of the protestors can be expected to 
continue upping the ante until they provoke the governor's 
departure or a military intervention.  There are no 
indications that Ruiz would be able to regain his ability to 
govern by waiting this period out or using force to disperse 
the protestors.  An intervention by government forces could 
easily result in bloodshed. 
 
17. (SBU) Comment continued: There are few signs that Oaxaca 
will become a "battleground" for the national elections 
dispute.  Popular support for AMLO and his electoral 
challenge may be lending some energy to the broader Oaxaca 
strike, but the connection remains hard to discern.  If, 
however, the national PRD party at the request of AMLO urges 
nation-wide protests calling for a full recount, Oaxaca would 
be one of the easiest areas to mobilize.  As Oaxaca's protest 
continues, it is the children of that state who have the most 
to lose. 
 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity 
 
GARZA