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Viewing cable 06MEXICO4238, AMLO URGES SUPPORTERS "TO SAVE DEMOCRACY"

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06MEXICO4238 2006-08-01 14:05 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Mexico
VZCZCXRO7030
RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #4238/01 2131405
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 011405Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2446
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RHMFIUU/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RHMFIUU/CDR USNORTHCOM
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 004238 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MX
SUBJECT: AMLO URGES SUPPORTERS "TO SAVE DEMOCRACY" 
 
REF: A. A) MEXICO 3953 
     B. B) MEXICO 3832 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary: At his third mass "informational meeting," 
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO, presidential candidate of 
the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), called on his 
supporters to begin a continuous vigil until the electoral 
tribunal (TEPJF) issues its final decision with respect to 
the presidential election results.  Speaking before a crowd 
varyingly estimated at between 180,000 and 2 million 
participants, AMLO called upon his supporters to set up 
"camps" on Mexico City's central plaza and on major 
thoroughfares.  Within hours and in what was clearly a 
well-organized effort, large tents were erected along several 
major thoroughfares, causing havoc to Mexico City's already 
complicated traffic.  In considerably broadening his campaign 
of civil disobedience in a manner that will directly impact 
the lives of millions of Mexico City residents, AMLO is 
pursuing a high risk strategy that ensures his cause will not 
be ignored -- and that risks alienating many erstwhile 
supporters.  End summary. 
 
The Two Million Man March Falls Short 
------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) On July 30, AMLO led thousands of supporters, many 
bused in from out-of-town, in a march along Mexico's 
principal thoroughfare to the Zocalo or central square, where 
he addressed the assembled masses.  The march and rally was 
the third in the series of "informational meetings" he has 
held since the July 2 election (ref A).  Estimates of the 
crowd size varied widely and as usual were highly 
politicized.  While the Federal Preventative Police (PFP) 
estimated the crowd at 180,000, the PRD-led Mexico City 
government estimated it at two million, neatly matching the 
goal the party had set in advance of the event.  Daily 
newspaper Reforma claimed to have conducted a careful study 
of the size of the crowd, based upon an enlarged, aerial 
photo, and estimated it at 348,000.  A poloff who attended 
both yesterday's rally and the first one (ref B) noted that 
although yesterday's rally appeared somewhat larger than the 
first one -- at which the crowd was estimated at between 
150,000 and 280,000 -- it was not dramatically larger, 
suggesting that the Reforma estimate may be closer to the 
mark than either of the two conflicting official estimates. 
 
3.  (U) Speaking to his assembled supporters, AMLO announced 
that the challenge they faced was one of saving Mexican 
democracy.  He noted that in a country as unequal as Mexico, 
democracy provided millions of poor their only hope of 
improving their lives, and that once democratic means of 
protest are restricted, the only remaining alternatives are 
submission or violence.  He contended that the TEPJF 
magistrates were being subject to strong pressures from those 
who consider themselves "Mexico's masters and lords."  He 
added "it's not that we do not respect institutions, it's 
that in our country, unfortunately, we do not have a 
tradition that assures us that the men managing the 
institutions act with rectitude and decency."  Further 
emphasizing his distrust of institutions, he added that while 
many invoke the "rule of law," in Mexico, those responsible 
for administering justice have used the rule of law to 
"legalize...the abuses that the strong commit," rather than 
to protect the weak.  He said that while he hoped the TEPJF 
magistrates would act "responsibly," he would not sit idly 
"with his arms crossed." 
 
Camping in the Streets 
---------------------- 
 
4.  (U) AMLO then proposed that he and his followers stay "in 
a Permanent Assembly" until the Tribunal pronounced its 
decision.  He proposed that his followers set up 31 "camps" 
on the Zocalo, one for each Mexican state, and that sixteen 
additional camps -- one for each Mexico City ward -- be set 
up along several major thoroughfares, including Paseo de la 
Reforma.  He insisted that the camps maintain "discipline, 
respect and cleanliness," urging his supporters to protect 
gardens and historic monuments in the area.  He also 
announced that artistic and cultural events will be held at 
each of the camps.  He said that he himself would live in the 
camps until the TEPJF reached its decision, and indeed was 
reported to have spent the night in a tent on the Zocalo.  He 
concluded his remarks by noting that he would announce 
further planned acts of civil disobedience in the future. 
There were no reports of violence during the rally. 
 
MEXICO 00004238  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
5.  (SBU) During the evening hours, large tarpaulin tents 
were erected over segments of Paseo de la Reforma, in what 
was clearly a well-organized -- and possibly well-funded -- 
effort.  Some supporters erected smaller, more private tents 
on the blockaded streets.  Although the encampments wreaked 
havoc on the Monday morning rush hour, the authorities in the 
PRD-controlled Mexico City municipal government announced 
that the blockages did not violate the law and that they 
would not intervene unless the protesters actually committed 
a crime. 
 
A 21st Century Caudillo 
----------------------- 
 
6.  (SBU) In a discussion with poloff, political analyst 
Rosanna Fuentes-Berain noted that in turning to civil 
resistance to pressure the electoral authorities, AMLO has 
fallen back on the strategy that has worked best for him in 
the past.  She noted that his tactics fell squarely within 
Mexico's long tradition of political strongmen (caudillos) 
manipulating the masses and commented on the irony in his 
demands for transparency and accountability, two qualities 
for which, she said, his administration of Mexico City had 
not been known.  She feared, however, that AMLO's 
intransigence left no room for compromise, and criticized 
Felipe Calderon as well for not showing flexibility.  She 
argued that in resolving the current standoff, a rigid 
adherence to the rule of law would backfire and that the 
TEPJF magistrates needed to show political sensitivity to 
avoid exacerbating tensions. 
 
Comment: AMLO Ups the Ante 
-------------------------- 
 
7.  (SBU) Comment:  In going beyond mass rallies and actually 
blocking major Mexico City thoroughfares -- perhaps for an 
extended period -- AMLO has upped the ante considerably. 
While until now most Mexicans followed AMLO's rallies and the 
occasional small-scale act of civil disobedience on the 
television news, his current tactics will have a direct 
impact on the lives of millions living in the Mexico City 
metropolitan area.  In pursuing this high-stakes strategy, he 
risks alienating many people who voted for him, but who 
resent the inconvenience created by these blockages. 
Moreover, while until now he appears to have been operating 
with considerable support from the PRD-led municipal 
government, the municipal government undoubtedly will find 
itself under increasing pressure both from angry commuters 
and from business owners whose enterprises are being hurt by 
the disruption.  It remains to be seen whether over time, the 
political price of AMLO's tactics will prove too high to 
sustain.  End comment 
 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity 
 
GARZA