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Viewing cable 06LAPAZ2120, STATE OF THE UNION

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06LAPAZ2120 2006-08-08 14:14 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy La Paz
VZCZCXYZ0001
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHLP #2120/01 2201414
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 081414Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY LA PAZ
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0158
INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 6032
RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 3351
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 7201
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 4466
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 1739
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 1757
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 3951
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 4370
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 8936
RUEHUB/USINT HAVANA 0041
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
UNCLAS LA PAZ 002120 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON BL
SUBJECT: STATE OF THE UNION 
 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: In a rambling two and a half hour state of the 
union address kicking off the August 5 Constituent Assembly 
festivities in Sucre, Bolivia's historic capital, President Morales 
reviewed his accomplishments to date: delivery of the Constituent 
Assembly, economic stability and government austerity, 
nationalization of hydrocarbons, and success fighting corruption and 
cocaine trafficking.  On patriotic grounds, he defended his decision 
to purge high level military officers who transferred MANPADS to the 
United States for destruction, and at other points offered a couple 
of implicit digs at the United States - while paying homage to the 
Cuban government.  He demonstrated impatience with his opponents, 
offering up a domestic visa scandal as the pretext for further 
politicization of government ministries, and indicated he would not 
let institutional impediments block implementation of his policy 
platform.  Confrontation, not consensus, was the unifying theme of 
the discourse.  End summary. 
 
---------------- 
ATMOSPHERICS 
---------------- 
 
2. (SBU) President Morales' August 5th state of the union address 
kicking-off Constituent Assembly festivities came following a week 
of criticism in the press for inadequate preparation of the host 
city, with many members of the assembly reportedly sharing hotel 
rooms or remaining without accommodations.  In an address to his 
party faithful, many former and present GOB officials, and national 
leaders, Morales, who broke his nose earlier in the week in a soccer 
game, seemed somewhat fatigued but spoke for almost two and a half 
hours, periodically wiping sweat from his brow. 
 
---------------------------- 
HYDROCARBONS AND THE ECONOMY 
---------------------------- 
 
3. (SBU) Morales highlighted his accomplishments in office to date. 
He said that he fulfilled his promise to deliver the Constituent 
Assembly and a referendum on departmental autonomy.  He cited 
Bolivia's current economic stability and his May 1 hydrocarbons 
nationalization as key successes, principally for the positive 
impact the additional hydrocarbons revenues will have on state 
finances.  Apparently straying from prepared remarks, he underscored 
his own independence in claiming that he nationalized hydrocarbons 
contrary to Cuban President Castro's advice to postpone action until 
after the Constituent Assembly.  The benefits of this policy were 
immediately evident, he argued, with a dramatic increase in 
government revenues offering the prospect of an immediate 
improvement in the lives of ordinary Bolivians. With this in mind, 
he underscored that he expected ministries to work hard to spend 
these increased revenues, and offered a sly dig at his vice 
president for not focusing sufficiently on the needs of the Bolivian 
people. 
 
4.  (SBU) He criticized Bolivia's prefects (including the three 
belonging to the MAS) for not spending available funds for the 
people's benefit.  He blasted his own cabinet for failures, such a 
slow progress on the construction of homes and irrigation systems, 
warning that "heads will roll" if immediate action is not taken.  He 
continued his attacks on the press, the "corrupt" opposition and 
traditional political parties, and the Catholic Church, arguing that 
the GOB's new network of 30 radio stations is necessary so that "not 
only the rich and the church" have access to information. 
 
5.  (SBU) He reminded listeners that the MAS had long sought 
nationalization and that opposition parties had opposed modifying 
the hydrocarbons law in 2005.  Morales proudly noted that salary 
cuts in the government had improved its budget environment; he 
underscored that he had accomplished these cuts while increasing 
salaries in the health and education sectors, leading to labor peace 
in these sectors for the first time in memory. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
ANTI-CORRUPTION, OPPOSITION AND THE GOVERNMENT 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
6. (SBU) Morales touted his anti-corruption campaign, which the 
audience approved with a smattering of applause.  He responded by 
quipping that "those not clapping may be implicated by my efforts." 
He attacked opposition stronghold Santa Cruz for not fighting 
corruption, and noted that Brazilians were illegally occupying 
GOB-owned land along the border, a neuralgic issue in 
sovereignty-obsessed Bolivia.  He also railed against the kidnapping 
of several GOB ministers in Santa Cruz earlier this year.  In an 
ironic turn of events, he also criticized the people of Santa Cruz 
for conducting blockades (a tactic that he perfected while seeking 
political power in recent years). 
 
7.  (SBU) Morales cited a budding MFA visa-selling scandal as a 
pretext for further attacks on the professional civil service, 
incorrectly asserting that because the responsible officials 
belonged to an institutionalized ministry, they cannot be fired.  He 
promised to introduce new legislation to de-institutionalize GOB 
ministries, opening the door to further politicization.  Finally, he 
mentioned the transfer of MANPADS to the United States in October 
2005, stating that he could not allow the previous military high 
command to remain in their positions after their involvement in the 
transfer.  He said former President Rodriguez knew the "Embassy was 
managing [the Armed Forces] with thousands of dollars" and that the 
GOB could not permit the disarming of its armed forces. 
 
---------------------- 
ANTI-DRUG EFFORTS 
--------------------- 
 
8. (SBU) Morales also boasted about his efforts to fight illegal 
cocaine traffic without recourse to coercion.  He said when he 
entered office many thought he would "cocalize Bolivia, cocaine-ize 
Bolivia."  Instead, he said the GOB had confiscated over 8 metric 
tons of cocaine, and significant quantities of marijuana, while 
maintaining social peace.  Making a veiled reference to the United 
States, he said the international community should note that 
campesinos do not have to die in order for Bolivia to avoid 
decertification.  He also said rationalization efforts would soon 
begin in earnest.  (Comment: eradication rates, which Morales calls 
"rationalization" remain significantly down from last year while 
cocaine and marijuana seizures have indeed risen significantly.  To 
date, new plantings of coca appears to be outrunning eradication 
efforts.  End comment.) 
 
------------------------------------ 
OUR FRIENDS IN HAVANA - AND CARACAS 
------------------------------------ 
 
9. (SBU) Morales paid lengthy homage to the Cuban government, 
focusing on Cuban assistance and lauding Cuban solidarity with the 
Bolivian people.  He described many Cuban aid efforts, including 
Cuba's resident doctors in Bolivia, literacy programs, scholarships 
for Bolivian medical students, and the construction of several 
hospitals.  According to Morales, Cuban doctors have performed eye 
operations on over 26,000 Bolivians free of charge. 
 
10. (SBU) Beyond recognizing Cuban assistance, Morales thanked many 
countries for their aid without reference to their relative 
significance as donors.  While he prominently cited Venezuelan aid, 
he initially omitted mention of the United States.  Later in his 
speech, he briefly and with almost palpable reluctance mentioned 
U.S. disaster assistance and health programs.  Morales dismissed the 
prospect of a free trade agreement with the United States as "not 
the solution" to creating economic growth and noted that Bolivia 
already has trade agreements with Cuba and Venezuela.  He said the 
GOB is looking for new markets in the event ATPDEA is not extended. 
 
 
--------------------------------- 
COMMENT: PREACHING TO THE CHOIR 
--------------------------------- 
 
11. (SBU) With this speech, President Morales once again showed his 
gift for focusing on the concerns of his core, economically 
marginal, constituency.  He cleverly blamed the institutions of 
government for failure while taking personal credit for a lengthy 
list of governmental accomplishments.  Most ominously, Morales 
repeatedly cited the presence of institutional checks and balances 
as an explanation for government failings.  While many of the 
achievements he cited were symbolic, additional hydrocarbons 
revenues will indeed offer him continuing flexibility in the months 
ahead.  It is true that Morales has benefited from a political 
honeymoon and a large measure of social peace in recent months. 
Nonetheless, expectations continue to rise, particularly regarding 
what the Constituent Assembly will accomplish.  The pressure to 
deliver upon these expectations will only grow in the months ahead. 
End comment. 
 
GREENLEE