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Viewing cable 06KINSHASA1370, DRC ELECTIONS: PPRD HOLDS SLIM PLURALITY IN

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06KINSHASA1370 2006-08-30 13:11 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Kinshasa
VZCZCXRO0648
PP RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHKI #1370/01 2421311
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 301311Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY KINSHASA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4699
INFO RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001370 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPKO CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: DRC ELECTIONS: PPRD HOLDS SLIM PLURALITY IN 
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY VOTING 
 
REF: KINSHASA 1231 
 
1. (U) With approximately half of the DRC's electoral 
districts reporting, initial election results for the 
National Assembly show the Kabila-affiliated People's Party 
for Reconstruction and Development (PPRD) currently leading 
all other political parties. No results, however, have yet 
been posted for Kinshasa, which will represent some ten 
percent of the total National Assembly seats, and will 
presumably favor other parties. As of August 29, the 
Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) has finished counting 
the votes for 86 of the 169 electoral districts, representing 
192 seats in the 500-member National Assembly. According to 
the preliminary results, the PPRD has won 51 seats (26 
percent) thus far, 33 independent candidates have won 
National Assembly seats (nearly 17 percent of the total 
allocated), and Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba's Movement 
for the Liberation of Congo (MLC) party has garnered 21 
seats, making the MLC the third-largest group with 11 percent 
of total votes cast. A total of 36 parties (not including 
independent candidates) have won seats thus far, none of 
which can currently claim a majority in the Assembly. The 
future prime minister (who will serve as the head of 
government) is, according to the DRC's constitution, named 
from the majority party/coalition in the National Assembly by 
the newly-elected president. 
 
---------------------------------- 
PARLIAMENTARY RESULTS TRICKLING IN 
---------------------------------- 
 
2. (U) The PPRD and the MLC are the primary parties in two 
larger political alliances, both formed with the intention of 
gaining a majority of seats in the National Assembly. Other 
parties allied with the presidential campaign under the 
umbrella Alliance for the Presidential Majority (AMP) have 
won thus far another 16 seats, providing a total of 67 seats, 
or 35 percent of the total awarded thus far -- assuming the 
AMP alliance holds in the new National Assembly. The MLC 
leads the Rally of Congolese Nationalists (RENACO), which has 
won 24 seats (12 percent total) of the 192 for which results 
are known. (Again, this total includes the 33 MLC seats.) The 
RENACO alliance thus far has a smaller percentage of seats in 
the future National Assembly than all independents put 
together. Independent candidates, however, are only loosely 
affiliated and will likely not represent a uniform voting 
bloc in the future National Assembly. 
 
3. (U) The PPRD-AMP group has won seats in all of the 10 
provinces reporting results. The alliance, as expected, is 
strongest in the eastern provinces, having won 12 of 19 seats 
thus far in South Kivu (which has 32 total), five of eight 
seats in Maniema (12 total), and 19 of 34 seats in Katanga 
(69 total). The MLC-RENACO alliance is stronger in western 
provinces, but not overwhelmingly so. At present, the group 
has won six of 16 seats in Equateur (which has 58 total) and 
four of eight seats in Western Kasai (40 total). Independent 
candidates have proved particularly popular in Katanga, 
winning ten of the 34 seats awarded there thus far, and in 
Eastern Kasai, taking six of the 19 seats (of a total of 39) 
in that province. 
 
4. (U) Through August 29, a total of 6,792,923 valid ballots 
had been counted from the 86 districts reporting. Nearly 
two-thirds of the seats decided thus far (118 of 192) come 
from the eastern provinces of North and South Kivu, Maniema, 
Orientale, and Katanga. The CEI is expected to announce 
provisional national legislative results by September 4. 
Based on these figures, the next National Assembly is 
scheduled to be installed September 19. 
 
5. (U) Several well-known political figures, including 
government ministers and high-ranking political party 
officials, were elected in their respective districts. 
Minister of Budget Francois Mwamba, secretary general of the 
MLC, was elected to a seat in Eastern Kasai province, and 
PPRD Secretary General Vital Kamerhe was elected in South 
Kivu. Former Minister of Budget Alexis Thambwe also won his 
district in Maniema. Thambwe left the MLC earlier this year 
to run as an independent candidate, and allied himself with 
the AMP. Two other prominent PPRD officials won seats in 
their races as well: Kikaya bin Karubi, Kabila's personal 
secretary, was elected in Maniema, while Katangan Vice 
 
SIPDIS 
Governor Chikez Diemu won a seat in his province. In 
addition, two candidates who ran in the presidential race won 
 
KINSHASA 00001370  002 OF 002 
 
 
seats in their home provinces. Roger Lumbala, president of 
RCDN, won a seat in Eastern Kasai, and Pierre Pay Pay of 
CODECO won a seat representing the city of Butembo in North 
Kivu province. (Note: The DRC's electoral law does not 
prohibit candidates from running simultaneously for different 
offices. The only prohibition is that candidates cannot run 
in multiple electoral districts at the same level -- i.e., 
legislative or provincial elections. End note.) 
 
---------------------------- 
JUDGING PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS 
---------------------------- 
 
6. (U) On August 29, the Supreme Court began deliberations on 
challenges levied against the provisional presidential 
results announced by the CEI August 20. According to CEI 
officials, a total of eight cases were brought before the 
Court, including one by Vice President Azarias Ruberwa's 
Rally for Congolese Democracy (RCD). As reported reftel, 
Ruberwa has claimed the July 30 elections were "marred by 
massive irregularities." The Court has seven days to review 
and issue rulings on the challenges. The Court is expected to 
announce its decisions by September 5, allowing the CEI to 
declare final first-round presidential results by September 
6. (Note: The original CEI calendar projected final 
provisional results by August 31. Because of the violence in 
Kinshasa August 20-22, however, the CEI and the Court decided 
to extend the period for bringing forward electoral 
challenges, thereby pushing back the date for a final 
announcement. End note.) 
 
------------------------ 
PREPS FOR THE NEXT ROUND 
------------------------ 
 
7. (U) The CEI, meanwhile, has begun preparing material for 
the next round of elections on October 29, which will include 
the presidential run-off election as well as balloting for 
provincial assemblies. CEI officials said August 29 that the 
designs for provincial assembly ballots have been sent to 
printers in South Africa, and will start to be delivered 
throughout the DRC by the end of September. The ballot for 
the second-round presidential election has been designed as 
well. The CEI is waiting until a final ruling from the 
Supreme Court concerning first-round results before sending 
that mock-up to the printers. 
 
---------------------------------- 
COMMENT: POWER OF THE INDEPENDENTS 
---------------------------------- 
 
8. (SBU) The strong showing thus far of independent 
candidates highlights the importance and power this group 
could yield in the future National Assembly. As no party or 
coalition to this point has an absolute majority of seats, 
both the AMP and RENACO will be strongly courting 
independents -- an effort that effectively has already begun 
-- to control the legislature. Certain nominal leaders of the 
group of independents -- such as Alexis Thambwe and Martin 
Fayulu -- allied themselves in the campaign with Kabila's AMP 
and are attempting to persuade others to join the coalition. 
As noted, though, the independents do not speak with one 
voice, and future allegiances will be determined more often 
on personalities than on politics. The high percentage of 
independent candidates elected also shows the comparative 
weakness of the existing political parties, indicating that 
political choices -- at least on a more local level -- are 
being made based on the individual and not the party. 
Whatever the causes, governing by consensus in the next 
National Assembly is likely to be a complicated affair of 
juggling the interests of a myriad of factions. End comment. 
MEECE