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Viewing cable 06MEXICO3672, MEXICAN ELECTORAL UNCERTAINTY -- INITIAL MARKET

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06MEXICO3672 2006-07-03 20:33 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Mexico
VZCZCXRO8451
RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #3672 1842033
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 032033Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1965
INFO RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS MEXICO 003672 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/MEX, WHA/EPSC, EB/IFD, AND EB/EPPD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR LAC:MARK CARRATO 
TREASURY FOR IA MEXICO DESK: JASPER HOEK 
COMMERCE FOR ITA/MAC/NAFTA: ANDREW RUDMAN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIN EINV PGOV MX
SUBJECT: MEXICAN ELECTORAL UNCERTAINTY -- INITIAL MARKET 
REACTION 
 
 
Sensitive but unclassified, entire text. 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary.  Following Sunday's indeterminate election 
results, the Mexican Stock Market (Bolsa) opened July 3 up 
4.17% where it remains at midday.  The peso rose Monday 
morning to between 11.10 and 11.20 to the dollar after having 
closed June 30 at 11.42.   While some observers point to 
optimism at the Calderon lead, most note that the Mexican 
markets will not react completely to the current situation 
until after the July 4 holiday.  None of the market watchers 
we spoke with expressed significant concern over the current 
uncertainty.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (SBU) Chief Economist of the Bolsa, Alejandro Reynoso 
expects that the brief rally in Mexican markets will be short 
lived.  No matter who wins, he said, markets will return to 
levels consistent with macroeconomic variables which included 
Mexico's strong economic fundamentals in Mexico and higher 
interest rates abroad.  The exchange rate would hover between 
11.30 and 11.40. 
 
3.  (SBU) Sergio Luna, Vice President of the Economic 
Research at Banamex-Citibank and Adrian Rizo, economist from 
HSCB also expected the spike to continue at least through the 
first half of the week with greater volatility.  They see 
investors as optimistic and willing to wait at least two 
weeks to gauge how the political scene develops. He expressed 
regret over U.S. headlines on the election which he 
criticized as "exaggerated." 
 
4.  (SBU) Luna and Rizo, as well as, Marco Oviedo, director 
of the office of relations with the investors in the 
Secretariat of Hacienda (Treasury) agreed that, even before 
 
SIPDIS 
the final counts came in, markets already discounted a 
Calderon victory.  At this point, none of the advisors saw 
trends changing to favor Lopez Obrador.  Rizo and Oveido 
believed that AMLO, under pressure from the Mexican press, 
would respect the Federal Election Institute's (IFE) results, 
although he would inspect the count closely.  The analysts 
noted that Investors could see that the election was a very 
transparent process and this would contribute to stability. 
Different from other elections, the 2006 presidential 
election count was completely "on line" in which all 
observers would learn of the results in real time. 
 
5.  (SBU) Luna added that investors were also optimistic 
about Congress' composition in which PAN is winning seats and 
PRI is losing significant ground.  He called the PRI "the 
main obstacle for passing needed reforms during the Fox 
administration." 
 
 
 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity 
 
GARZA