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Viewing cable 06BUCHAREST1115, POLL SHOWS STRONG SUPPORT FOR PRESIDENT BASESCU, AT PM

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06BUCHAREST1115 2006-07-11 15:48 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Bucharest
VZCZCXRO5553
PP RUEHAST
DE RUEHBM #1115/01 1921548
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 111548Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUCHAREST
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4797
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BUCHAREST 001115 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE DEPT FOR EUR/NCE - WILLIAM SILKWORTH 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM SOCI RO
SUBJECT: POLL SHOWS STRONG SUPPORT FOR PRESIDENT BASESCU, AT PM 
TARICEANU'S EXPENSE 
 
BUCHAREST 00001115  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
1. Summary: (SBU) A July opinion poll carried out by The National 
Institute for Polling and Marketing Studies (INSOMAR) revealed 
continued high public support for President Traian Basescu and 
relatively low support for Prime Minister Calin Popescu Tariceanu, 
despite the latter's recent attempt to increase his standing by 
announcing support for withdrawal of Romanian troops from Iraq. 
Basescu's Democratic Party (PD) also remained far ahead of 
Tariceanu's National Liberal Party (PNL).  About 54% of the 
respondents said they did not support maintaining Romanian troops in 
foreign conflict zones.  Respondents expressed much confidence in 
the institutions of the church and army, but very little in 
political parties, parliament, and the government. The poll also 
indicated rising popularity of extreme nationalist politician and 
soccer team owner Gigi Becali.  End Summary. 
 
2. (U) The poll was conducted between July 1 and July 5 among 1134 
respondents over the age of 18, with a margin of error of 2.9 
percent.  On many issues, results are compared to responses to the 
same question asked in a similar May INSOMAR poll. Results were 
published in the Social Democratic Party (PSD) leaning daily 
"Adeverul" and nationalist daily "Ziua."  INSOMAR has been 
associated with the PSD in the past. 
 
3. (U) Relevant poll results are presented below: 
 
- How satisfied are you with the performance of Traian Basescu as 
president of Romania? 
                         May      July     Change 
Total Satisfied (%) 63        57        -6 
 
- How satisfied are you with the performance of the government led 
by Calin Popescu Tariceanu? 
                         May      July     Change 
Total Satisfied (%) 28        26        -1 
 
- How satisfied are you with the performance of Calin Popescu 
Tariceanu as Prime Minister? 
                         May       July     Change 
Total Satisfied (%)      27     26       -1 
 
- "Recently, PM Calin Popescu Tariceanu and President Traian Basescu 
have expressed completely different positions on problems of 
national interest. Which one is more right?" 
   President Basescu                    47 percent 
   Prime Minister Tariceanu             10 
   Neither                              43 
 
- If elections would be held next Sunday the preferences would be: 
    DA Alliance (PD & PNL)              48 percent 
    Social Democratic Party (PSD)       20 
    Greater Romania Party (PRM)         15 
    New Generation Party (PNG)           7 
    Hungarian Democratic Union (UDMR)    5 
    National Initiative (PIN)            2 
    Conservative Party (PC)              1.4 
 
- Electoral options if parties would compete individually: 
    Democratic Party (PD)              36 percent 
    Social Democratic Party (PSD)       20 
    Greater Romania Party (PRM)         15 
    National Liberal Party (PNL)        13 
    New Generation Party (PNG)           7 
    Hungarian Democratic Union (UDMR)    5 
    National Initiative (PIN)            2 
    Consrvative Party (PC)              1.4 
 
- Public confidence in political personalities: 
                   May       July       Change 
Traian Basescu      56        53          -3 
(President) 
 
Mona Musca          39        44          +5 
(Formr PNL Culture Minister) 
 
Theodor Stolojan    38        39          +1 
(Presidential Advisor) 
 
Gigi Becali          29        33          +4 
(PNG leader/Pro soccer team owner) 
 
Mircea Geoana       28         21         -7 
(PSD leader/Senator) 
 
Emil Boc            22         26         +4 
(Cluj Mayor/PD president) 
 
Vadim Tudor         22         24         +2 
(PRM leader) 
 
BUCHAREST 00001115  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
 
Calin P. Tariceanu  21        20          -1 
(Prime Minister) 
 
Dan Voiculescu      12        11          -1 
(PC Leader/Businessman) 
 
Marko Bela          11        11          = 
(UDMR leader/Vice Premier) 
 
Adriean Videanu     13        13          = 
(Bucharest Mayor/PD Vice President) 
 
Ion Iliescu         19         19         = 
(Former President/PSD member) 
 
Adrian Nastase      12         12         = 
(Former PM/PSD member) 
 
Petre Roman         13         12         -1 
(Former PM/Independent politican) 
 
Cosmin Gusa         10         11         +1 
(PIN leader/Deputy) 
 
- Confidence in government ministers: 
Interior Minister Vasile Blaga               34 Percent 
Foreign Minister Mihai Razvan Ungureanu      32 
Justice Minister Monica Macovei              29 
Defense Minister Teodor Atanasiu             23 
Integration Minister Anca Boagiu             23 
Agricultural Minister Gheorghe Flutur        20 
Transportation Minister Radu Berceanu        20 
Environmental Minister Sulfina Barbu         20 
Finance Minister Sebastian Vladescu          17 
 
- Levels of support for maintaining Romanian troops in foreign 
conflict zones: 
    Totally agree         11 Percent 
    Generally agree       35 
    Not really agree      29 
    Definitely disagree   25 
 
- "In what measure do you believe there is a risk for any future 
terrorist attacks in Romania?" 
 Very high             11 Percent 
 Fairly high           36 
 Not so high           37 
 Very low              16 
 
- Public confidence in institutions: 
   Church                           87 Percent 
   Army                             77 
   Media                            65 
   Gendarmes                        60 
   President                        55 
   Romanian Intelligence Service    47 
   Politicians                      38 
   Justice                          35 
   Unions                           25 
   Government                       20 
   Parliament                       17 
   Political Parties                16 
 
4. (SBU) Comment. Prime Minister Tariceanu's recent public call for 
a withdrawal of Romanian troops from Iraq does not appear to have 
boosted his polling figures. Basescu has seen a modest decline in 
support in recent months, but nonetheless remains the most popular 
politician in the country. PSD President Mircea Geoana's popularity, 
on the other hand, seems to be falling markedly. Also of note is the 
rising popularity of extreme nationalist New Generation Party (PNG) 
leader and Bucharest soccer team owner Gigi Becali, who is the 
fourth most popular political figure according to this survey.  A 
controversial figure who has overtly spoken out against minority 
groups and has drawn from fascist images, Becali has increasingly 
come to compete with Vadim Tudor for supporters at the far right of 
the political spectrum.  Post will report further on this 
development septel.  End comment. 
 
5. (U) AmEmbassy Bucharest's reporting telegrams are available on 
the Bucharest SIPRNET Website: 
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/bucharest. 
 
Taubman