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Viewing cable 06SEOUL1908, KORUS FTA: A LOOK AT KOREAN PUBLIC OPINION

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06SEOUL1908 2006-06-09 01:25 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Seoul
VZCZCXYZ0003
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHUL #1908/01 1600125
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 090125Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY SEOUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8322
INFO RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC 1485
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 0829
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0756
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 1792
UNCLAS SEOUL 001908 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
PASS USTR FOR BHATIA, CUTLER, AUGEROT AND KI 
STATE FOR E, EB, EB/TPP AND EAP/K 
COMMERCE FOR 4431/MAC/OPB/EAP/DUTTON 
TREASURY FOR IA/ISA/DOHNER AND BUCKLEY 
USDA ALSO FOR FAS/ITP/CLAUS AND GRUNENFELDER 
NSC FOR SHIRZAD, HUNTER, CHA AND COLLINS 
GENEVA FOR USTR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ETRD SOCI PGOV KS
SUBJECT: KORUS FTA: A LOOK AT KOREAN PUBLIC OPINION 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1. Generally speaking, the Korean public remains noticeably 
supportive of the conclusion of a U.S.-Korea Free Trade 
Agreement despite steady public protests and often-critical 
media coverage.  The proportion of citizens who feel 
strongly about the initiative is relatively small, however, 
so there is still potential for public opinion to sway in 
one direction or the other depending on the outcome of the 
negotiations.  Korea's "silent majority" of FTA sympathizers 
is most supportive about changes to Korea's services market, 
and is agreeable to opening wider to imported manufactured 
goods.  The public is most cautious about the impact of the 
FTA on the agricultural sector.  End Summary. 
 
WIDESPREAD SUPPORT IN GENERAL PUBLIC 
------------------------------------ 
 
2. As one might expect, different polls show different 
results concerning Korean public opinion toward the KORUS 
FTA.  Korean public opinion polls still often include 
leading questions, or questions asked in a context that 
provides information pointing toward a particular point of 
view.  Even so, it is clear that even after three months of 
intense media coverage and a steady drumbeat of public 
demonstrations opposing the FTA, the Korean public remains 
largely supportive of the endeavor.  Even polls commissioned 
by anti-FTA organizations such as Hankyoreh Shinmun show 
majority support. 
 
Recent Poll Results 
------------------- 
(percent)                Favor   Oppose   Undecided 
                         -----   ------   --------- 
June 3 Media Research    58.1     29.2      12.7 
June 3 KBS               40.0     23.0      37.0 
May 13 Hankyoreh         58.1     41.9       0.0 
April 25 KSOI            39.5     55.2       5.3 
 
3. The most recent truly reliable survey was conducted by 
Media Research on behalf of the Hankook Ilbo newspaper, 
which tends to take a skeptical view toward the benefits of 
foreign trade.  That survey of 1,000 adults, conducted on 
June 3, found 7.1 percent of the Korean public to be "very 
supportive, 51 percent "tending to support," 22.5 percent 
"tending to oppose," and 6.7 percent "very negative."  Based 
on these results, it is apparent that a large group of 
Korean citizenry may not have firmly fixed opinions about 
the free trade agreement.  The implications of this fact are 
far-reaching: based on events and negotiating outcomes, it 
may be possible for large cohorts of Korean citizens to 
change their minds about the KORUS FTA. 
 
4. Following are the highlights of some other opinion polls, 
as reported in the press. 
 
-- Korea Broadcasting Service (June 3): According to KBS' 
nationwide survey of 1,000 adults, 39 percent supported the 
FTA while 22 percent objected to the trade deal.  However, 
as much as 36 percent were found to neither support nor 
oppose.  As reasons to approve the trade pact, 45 percent of 
the respondents said the FTA would enhance the 
competitiveness of domestic industries, and 31 percent 
answered that it would help reinvigorate the economy.  Among 
the opponents, 43 percent said that if the FTA is concluded, 
the ROK economy could be subordinated to the U.S. influence, 
and 25 percent responded that Seoul is pushing for the FTA 
talks in great haste.  Asked about the sectors that should 
be opened, 48 percent picked social services, 37 percent 
agriculture, stockbreeding and fisheries, and 13 percent 
manufacturing industries.  On the contrary, 78 percent and 
13 percent chose agriculture, stockbreeding and fisheries, 
and social services, respectively, as the sectors that 
should stay closed. 
 
-- Hankyoreh Shinmun (May 13): The newspaper and the Korean 
Social Science Data Center asked questions about the FTA as 
part of its biennial "Survey of Koreans' Ideological 
Inclinations."  Regarding the KORUS FTA, 58.1 percent of 
Koreans supported the pact while 41.9 percent expressed 
objections.  66.7 percent of people in agricultural, 
forestry and fisheries sectors opposed the trade accord, as 
opposed to 67.3 percent of self-employed persons who 
supported the pact. 
 
-- JoongAng Ilbo (April 20): A public poll conducted by 
JoongAng Ilbo, the East Asia Institute and Hankook Research 
reported found that more than 60 percent of the public 
supports a free trade agreement with the United States.  The 
consortium has yet to release detailed results, however. 
 
-- Korea Society Opinion Institute (April 25): The KSOI 
conducted a nationwide survey of about 700 people.  In the 
survey, 72 percent of respondents said that they would 
support the Korea opening up its medical and educational 
markets, despite strong opposition from civic groups.  Many 
respondents also approved of the liberalization of law and 
accounting (65 percent) and other services sectors (62 
percent).  However, those polled were split over the opening- 
up of the film industry, with 45 percent in favor and 43 
percent against it.  As to the liberalization of the 
agriculture and livestock industry, 67 percent was opposed 
to the opening with a mere 29 percent in favor -- the only 
category where objectors outnumbered supporters. 
 
5. Overall, the KSOI study found that 55.2 percent of the 
citizenry was opposed to the KORUS FTA, while 39.5 percent 
supported the trade pact.  As to why respondents tended to 
support each category for market opening but opposed the FTA 
in general, KSOI research fellow Han Ki-young concluded, "A 
large number of the respondents seem to identify agriculture 
market opening with the FTA." 
 
COHORT ANALYSIS 
--------------- 
 
6. The KSOI study was particularly useful because it has 
released its results broken down by survey cohort.  By 
stratum, KSOI found that people in their 30's and younger, 
highly educated and with high-paying white-collar jobs were 
the most likely to favor the FTA.  Meanwhile, those in their 
50's and older, and those less-educated with lower-paying 
jobs, were more likely to be opposed to the trade deal. 
 
7. The cohort analysis can be taken further, for example to 
look at two sectors of particular importance to the KORUS 
FTA -- agriculture and automobiles. 
 
8. In the case of the agricultural market, there is a clear 
political orientation to the stance of members of the 
public.  Members of the more urban ruling Uri Party and the 
conservative Grand National Party are most likely to support 
agricultural market opening, while supporters of the Jeolla- 
based Democratic Party and the left-wing Democratic Labor 
Party are firmly opposed.  Interestingly, however, there is 
little divergence in opinion by educational attainment, with 
fairly strong opposition to liberalization among all 
cohorts: 
 
What Is Your Opinion on Opening the Agricultural Market? 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
(percent)                Favor   Oppose   Undecided 
                         -----   ------   --------- 
Uri Party                 34.7    62.4       2.9 
Grand National Party      32.6    62.8       4.6 
Democratic Party          21.6    74.3       4.1 
Democratic Labor Party    12.9    87.1       0.0 
Independent               28.7    66.4       4.9 
 
University or Higher      30.7    67.1       2.2 
High School               27.0    70.0       3.0 
Middle School or Below    29.4    58.2      12.4 
 
9. Conversely, concerning automotive market opening, there 
appears to be less of a political tinge to public opinion, 
based on party affiliation.  There is, however, a clear 
class-based pattern of Korea's well-educated being the most 
favorably disposed toward the idea of importing more cars. 
Blue collar citizens with less educational attainment are 
less supportive of the idea of having more imported 
automobiles on Korea's streets.  The cause could be concern 
about lost employment, or jealousy over not being able to 
afford "expensive" imported cars: 
 
What Is Your Opinion on Opening the Automobile Market? 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
(percent)                Favor   Oppose   Undecided 
                         -----   ------   --------- 
Uri Party                 63.2    32.5       4.3 
Grand National Party      65.5    28.3       6.2 
Democratic Party          49.2    44.1       6.7 
Democratic Labor Party    64.8    33.6       1.6 
Independent               53.1    35.5      11.4 
 
University or Higher      69.8    26.5       3.7 
High School               53.7    39.3       7.0 
Middle School or Below    45.9    37.3      16.8 
 
VERSHBOW