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Viewing cable 06LAPAZ1654, SANTA CRUZ PREFECT PREDICTS WIN FOR AUTONOMY

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06LAPAZ1654 2006-06-19 20:24 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy La Paz
VZCZCXYZ0027
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHLP #1654 1702024
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 192024Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY LA PAZ
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9630
INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 5930
RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 3247
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 7094
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 4347
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 1638
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 1632
RUEHME/AMEMBASSY MEXICO 1729
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 3853
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 4272
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 8820
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS LA PAZ 001654 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/AND LPETRONI 
COMMERCE FOR JANGLIN 
TREASURY FOR SGOOCH 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV BL
SUBJECT: SANTA CRUZ PREFECT PREDICTS WIN FOR AUTONOMY 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: Santa Cruz Prefect Ruben Costas told the 
Ambassador June 19 that he believed six of Bolivia's nine 
departments would vote "yes" in the July 2 autonomy 
referendum.  He expressed frustration with the GOB's "double 
talk," referring to President Morales' recent decision to 
withdraw his support for autonomy, and commented that his 
relations with the GOB were "cold."  Costas speculated that 
if autonomy received strong backing, and if Morales' Movement 
Toward Socialism party failed to win the two-thirds vote 
needed to control the Constituent Assembly, the GOB could 
harden its position on a range of issues - and perhaps urge 
supporters into the streets.  End summary. 
 
2. (SBU) In a June 19 meeting with the Ambassador, Santa Cruz 
Prefect Ruben Costas said he expected six of Bolivia's nine 
departments - Santa Cruz, Tarija, Beni, Pando, Cochabamba, 
and Potosi - to vote "yes" in the July 2 autonomy referendum. 
 He said 70 to 80 percent of Santa Cruz inhabitants favored 
autonomy, with the proportion even higher in Beni and Pando, 
and suggested that even La Paz could endorse the proposal. 
 
3. (SBU) Costas expressed frustration with the GOB's "double 
talk," referring to President Morales' June 17 decision to 
withdraw his support for autonomy and urge party bases to 
vote against it.  The prefect commented that his relations 
with the GOB were "cold" and noted that Vice President Garcia 
Linera's attempts to "soften" them had yielded little 
constructive dialogue.  According to Costas, Morales 
perceives Santa Cruz as a "threat" and believes the 
department may pose the only real challenge to his 
government, particularly given the weakness of opposition 
parties. 
 
4. (SBU) Costas speculated that if autonomy received strong 
backing, and if Morales' Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) 
party failed to win the two-thirds vote needed to control the 
Constituent Assembly, the GOB could harden its position on a 
range of issues - and perhaps urge supporters into the 
streets.  Costas said he doubted the MAS would win as much as 
54 percent of the vote, the total garnered in December's 
presidential election, and pointed out that this could be 
perceived as a major blow to the Morales administration, 
perhaps forcing GOB officials to take more radical positions 
and resort to more familiar means (i.e., mass demonstrations) 
of promoting change. 
 
5. (SBU) Comment: Costas seems confident that Santa Cruz and 
up to a majority of Bolivia's nine geographical departments 
will opt for autonomy on July 2.  Far less clear is whether 
Evo Morales' MAS candidates will garner as much as the 54 
percent vote for Constituent Assembly delegates that he 
achieved in last December's presidential contest.  End 
comment. 
GREENLEE