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Viewing cable 06LAPAZ1516, AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH DORIA MEDINA

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06LAPAZ1516 2006-06-05 20:29 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy La Paz
VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHLP #1516/01 1562029
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 052029Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY LA PAZ
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9450
INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 5893
RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 3205
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 7054
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 4308
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 1601
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 1593
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 3821
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 4235
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 8781
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS LA PAZ 001516 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/AND 
TREASURY FOR SGOOCH 
ENERGY FOR CDAY AND SLADISLAW 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON BL
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH DORIA MEDINA 
 
REF: A. LA PAZ 1418 
 
     B. LA PAZ 1337 
 
1. (SBU) Summary:  Ambassador met May 30 with National Unity 
(UN) party leader Samuel Doria Medina, who predicted that 
President Morales' Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party 
would win 50 to 55 percent of the vote for the Constituent 
Assembly elections in July, while the UN and Podemos would 
split the remaining vote.  He lamented Venezuelan influence 
in Bolivia, but said it was counterproductive to attack Hugo 
Chavez, who was viewed as a hero by a majority of the 
Bolivian public.  He added that Venezuelan "largesse" to 
Bolivia would actually benefit Venezuela and enable it to 
gain greater access to the Brazilian market.  Doria Medina 
expressed surprise at the extent of Cuban activism in 
Bolivia, which he recently witnessed during a visit to a 
village four hours outside of La Paz.  He argued that the 
GOB's biggest concerns were Santa Cruz opposition and 
economic stability, which could be threatened by large 
landowners/bank owners if the GOB pushed land reform.  He 
suggested that the U.S. continue to respond calmly and 
patiently to the Morales administration, but define its 
position on key bilateral issues.  End summary. 
 
Constituent Assembly Elections 
------------------------------ 
2. (SBU) Former presidential candidate and leader of the 
opposition National Unity (UN) party, Samuel Doria Medina, 
told the Ambassador on May 30 that the UN has contracted the 
same U.S. consulting firm used by former President Gonzalo 
"Goni" Sanchez de Lozada in his 2002 campaign.  Doria Medina 
predicted that President Evo Morales' party, the MAS, would 
get between 50 and 55 percent of the vote in July's 
Constituent Assembly elections, but would not reach the 
two-thirds that would be required to railroad the Assembly. 
He was optimistic that the opposition parties, UN and 
Podemos, could win up to a combined 50 percent of the vote, 
and added that UN support had grown during May according to 
polls. 
 
Venezuelan Influence 
-------------------- 
3. (SBU) Doria Medina stated that the strong Venezuelan 
interference in Bolivian affairs demonstrated by Venezuela's 
actions during the MAS' May 26 Constituent Assembly campaign 
launch (ref A) was not good for the country.  However, he 
thought that Podemos leader Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga's attacks on 
Hugo Chavez were counterproductive for Podemos, as the 
majority of the Bolivian people regard Chavez as a hero. 
 
4. (SBU) Doria Medina postulated that Chavez' increasing 
involvement in Bolivia was due to his desire to gain greater 
access to the Brazilian market.  He asserted that Chavez was 
self-interested and that Venezuela's recent pledges to buy 
Bolivian bonds and offer Bolivia large lines of credit were 
not charitable, but rather profitable deals for Venezuela, as 
had been Venezuela's buying of Argentine bonds during its 
financial crisis a few years back. 
 
Cuban Propaganda 
---------------- 
5. (SBU) Doria Medina said that he had visited a small 
village four hours outside of La Paz (Quime) and been struck 
by the degree of Cuban activism.  He explained that two Cuban 
doctors working in the village were distributing pamphlets on 
the MAS party in general, the Cuban Constitution, the 
salaries of the oil and gas company executives in Bolivia, 
opposing departmental autonomy, and contending that President 
Bush, not Osama Bin Laden, is a terrorist. 
 
The Biggest Thorns in the GOB's Side 
------------------------------------ 
6. (SBU)  Doria Medina said that the most serious GOB 
concerns were Santa Cruz and economic stability.  He 
commented that the GOB's proposed land reform policy (ref B) 
was creating hostility among large landowners in the East, 
who also own the nation's banks.  He said that the GOB feared 
that pushing land reform could cause these landowners to 
instigate bank runs and create economic instability. 
 
U.S. Policy 
----------- 
7. (SBU) Doria Medina told the Ambassador that the U.S. 
should continue to respond to the Morales administration in a 
calm and patient manner, but should define its position on 
important bilateral issues.  He argued that the suspension of 
ATPDEA trade benefits at the end of the year would not have a 
large impact on the Bolivian economy in the short term 
because of high gas export prices. 
 
Comment 
-------- 
8. (SBU)  As compared to Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga, Doria Medina, 
himself a candidate for the Constituent Assembly, is playing 
a more personal opposition role.  While open and friendly 
with the Embassy in private, Doria Medina understands the 
political value of taking occasional pot shots at the U.S. 
During a Constituent Assembly debate on June 2, he lamented 
Venezuelan interference in Bolivian affairs, comparing 
Chavez's influence over Morales to past U.S. influence over 
Tuto Quiroga and Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada.  END COMMENT. 
GREENLEE