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Viewing cable 06BUENOSAIRES1309, ARGENTINA: 2007 PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN STARTS EARLY

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06BUENOSAIRES1309 2006-06-09 20:43 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Buenos Aires
VZCZCXRO4249
PP RUEHCD RUEHGA RUEHGD RUEHHA RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHQU RUEHTM RUEHVC
DE RUEHBU #1309/01 1602043
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 092043Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4846
INFO RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/CJCS WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHNA/DEA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCNMRC/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BUENOS AIRES 001309 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA TOM SHANNON, JOHN MAISTO, AND CHARLES SHAPIRO 
NSC FOR DAN FISK 
TREASURY FOR DAS NANCY LEE 
USCINCSO FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL AR
SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: 2007 PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN STARTS EARLY 
 
REF: A. BUENOS AIRES 01243 
 
     B. BUENOS AIRES 00902 
 
1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: Former Minister of the Economy Roberto 
Lavagna's recent steps towards a likely presidential run has 
opened the 2007 presidential campaign early, with President 
Nestor Kirchner finally admitting that either he or his wife 
will be the "official" candidate and center-right Republican 
Proposal (PRO) leader Mauricio Macri essentially declaring 
his candidacy.  Opposition leaders have chosen to define 
their candidacies early in large part due to their perception 
that President Kirchner may move up the date of the 
presidential elections from October 2007 to March 2007. 
Kirchner's strident criticism of Lavagna in the past few days 
shows that he is concerned about Lavagna's candidacy, 
although his public attacks against Lavagna and those of his 
ministers have only served to increase the public attention 
around the former Economy Minister.  Lavagna's criticism of 
Kirchner's policies has forced the GOA into a rare debate 
with the opposition over policy issues.  Although polls still 
show that Kirchner would win reelection if elections were 
held today, with the recent additions to the list of 2007 
presidential aspirants, the 2007 election campaign stands to 
be more competitive and interesting than previously thought. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (SBU) Former Minister of the Economy Roberto Lavagna's 
recent steps towards a likely presidential run has opened the 
2007 presidential campaign early (SEE REFTEL A).  Following 
Lavagna's public criticism of GOA policy and apparent initial 
moves towards a presidential run, President Kirchner on June 
2 said for the first time that either he would run for 
reelection or his wife would be the "official" presidential 
candidate for 2007.  In a June 8 interview with 
circulation-leading daily Clarin, center-right PRO leader 
Mauricio Macri said that "he was ready to be a candidate for 
president," although his formal announcement will likely not 
come until later this year.  Affirmation for an Egalitarian 
Republic (ARI) leader Elisa Carrio formally announced her 
candidacy on May 26.  PRO partner, Neuquen Governor Jorge 
Sobisch, remains a presidential contender after having 
announced his presidential candidacy last year.  (Comment: 
Sobisch has tried to maintain a public positive attitude 
about Macri and Lavagna stepping into the presidential ring, 
saying that he does not view their candidacies negatively. 
Sobisch has suggested holding an internal election to decide 
whether he or Macri should be PRO's presidential candidate, 
but his recent positive statements about both Macri and 
Lavagna may be an indication he is vying to be the vice 
presidential candidate of one of them, recognizing that polls 
show Sobisch's chances of winning a presidential contest are 
slim.  End Comment.) 
 
3.  (SBU)  Opposition leaders have chosen to define their 
candidacies early in large part due to their perception that 
President Kirchner may move up the date of the presidential 
elections from October 2007 to March 2007.  Radical Civic 
Union (UCR) national congressman Hugo Storero, echoing what 
other opposition contacts, recently told Poloff that he is 
convinced that Kirchner will move up the presidential 
elections to March in order to take advantage of the current 
favorable economic situation to win reelection.  As one 
political analyst told Poloff, "I can't see there ever being 
a more favorable situation for Kirchner to win reelection. 
He (Kirchner) has to realize this.  The more he waits, the 
more chances there are for something to go wrong."  (Note: 
President Kirchner's current term technically goes until 
December 2007, although there is some leeway in the Argentine 
Constitution on when the presidential elections should be 
held in 2007, which states that the presidential term is four 
years long.  Kirchner served out the last seven months of 
Eduardo Duhalde's term in 2003 when Duhalde called early 
elections.  Kirchner's officials have declared October 28, 
2007 as the official presidential election date and leading 
Casa Rosada political strategist Juan Carlos Mazzon told the 
DCM and Poloff in April that the election would be held in 
October 2007 - SEE REFTEL B.  End Note.) 
 
 
BUENOS AIR 00001309  002 OF 002 
 
 
4.  (SBU) Kirchner's strident criticism of Lavagna in the 
past few days shows that he is concerned about Lavagna's 
candidacy, although his public attacks against Lavagna and 
those of his ministers have only served to increase the 
public attention around the former Economy Minister.  As one 
political analyst told Poloff, "Kirchner should have remained 
silent about Lavagna's presidential rumblings, or at least 
said that he enjoyed working with Lavagna and that he found 
it odd he would be criticizing policies that he was a part 
of.  By attacking him publicly, Kirchner just raises the 
importance of Lavagna in the public eye and makes people 
think he is scared." 
 
5.  (SBU) Lavagna's criticism of Kirchner's policies has 
forced the GOA into rare debate with the opposition over 
policy issues.  Lavagna has attacked the GOA's price control 
policy, state subsidies, energy policy, and relationship with 
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.  Kirchner's ministers have 
gone on the defensive, arguing the merits of the GOA's 
policies.  In particular, Minister of the Economy Felisa 
Miceli -- a former protege of Lavagna -- has publicly 
defended the GOA's economic policies.  When asked about 
Miceli's comments, Lavagna told the Ambassador that she read 
from a script that had been handed to her. 
 
6. (SBU) Comment: Although polls still show that Kirchner 
would win reelection if elections were held today, with the 
recent additions to the list of 2007 presidential aspirants, 
the 2007 election campaign stands to be more competitive and 
interesting than previously thought.  Kirchner suddenly faces 
the development of a viable opposition candidate in the form 
of one of his own ex-ministers.  There are many Peronists who 
are currently only reluctantly cooperating with Kirchner 
because his power seems unchallenged.  The danger to Kirchner 
is that if Lavagna begins to rise in the polls, many of these 
Peronist leaders and voters may find Lavagna an attractive 
alternative option. 
 
7.  (SBU) Lavagna's candidacy also changes things for the 
opposition, particularly for the center-right PRO.  As one 
PRO political advisor told Poloff, "With Lavagna in the race, 
now we are competing for third place."  Many PRO advisors are 
already arguing for making some kind of accommodation with 
Lavagna to better their electoral odds in 2007.  End Comment. 
 
 
 
GUTIERREZ