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Viewing cable 06BUENOSAIRES1279, Argentina Economic and Financial Weekly for
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| Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06BUENOSAIRES1279 | 2006-06-07 13:14 | 2011-08-25 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Buenos Aires |
VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB
DE RUEHBU #1279/01 1581314
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 071314Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4803
INFO RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC
RUEHRC/USDA FAS WASHDC 2194
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001279
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
PASS FED BOARD OF GOVERNORS FOR PATRICE ROBITAILLE
TREASURY FOR DAS LEE, RAMIN TOLOUI AND CHRIS KUSHLIS
NSC FOR SUE CRONIN
AND OCC FOR CARLOS HERNANDEZ
USDOC FOR ALEXANDER PEACHER
USDOL FOR ILAB PAULA CHURCH AND ROBERT WHOLEY
USSOUTHCOM FOR POLAD
OPIC FOR GEORGE SCHULTZ AND RUTH ANN NICASTRI
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EFIN ECON ELAB ALOW AR
SUBJECT: Argentina Economic and Financial Weekly for
the two-week period ending June 2, 2006
--------------------------------------------- --------
Weekly Highlights
--------------------------------------------- --------
- Technical agreement reached on price of Bolivian gas
exports to Argentina.
- GOA eases meat export ban.
- IMF mission in Argentina for Article IV review.
- April trade surplus of USD 1.3 billion -- above
expectations.
- President Kirchner announces that unemployment
decreased to 10.8 percent in April.
- Argentine provinces at risk of running fiscal
deficit.
- Natural gas supply to industrial customers cut due
to colder weather.
- Commentary of the Week: "The Need for Anti-Cyclical
Policies"
--------------------------------------------- --------
Technical agreement on price of Bolivian gas imports
to Argentina.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶1. After numerous delays, the GOA and GOB technical
delegations reached a preliminary agreement on a gas
price range of USD 4.5-5.5 per million cubic meters
imported to Argentina. The presidents of both
countries are scheduled to meet the second week of
June to agree on the final price, which will be
adjustable according to the prices of gas substitutes.
Still, many final details of the agreement need to be
determined, such as the "the basic price" used for
making price adjustments. [Argentina currently
imports 5 percent of its gas consumption from Bolivia
at a "solidarity" price of USD 3.20 per million cubic
meters, while the international price ranges between
USD 2.00 and USD 8.00 per million cubic meters.]
--------------------------------------------- --------
GOA eases beef export ban.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶2. On May 29, the GOA issued a resolution (N 397)
allowing beef exporters to export 40 percent of the
total exports volume between June and November of
2005, which represents 14,000 tons. The GOA measure
eases the complete ban on beef export ban for six
months that was implemented last March and signals
that the GOA will attempt to lift the export ban by
gradually increasing the quantity allowed to be
exported. The quota will be distributed between 80
wholesalers in proportion to their sales during the
mentioned period and is estimated to generate exports
revenues of USD 260 million, according to private
consultants.
--------------------------------------------- --------
IMF mission in Argentina for Article IV review.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶3. On May 29, an IMF mission arrived to Buenos Aires
for the Article IV review of Argentina. The mission
will mainly review the country's economic, fiscal and
financial policy, as well as inflation and state
control over the economy. This is the first mission
to visit Buenos Aires since the GOA paid its entire
debt to the IMF in January. The IMF mission also met
with congressmen to express its concerns over money
laundering and terrorism finance, and presented a
draft of a terrorism finance bill.
--------------------------------------------- --------
April trade surplus of USD 1.3 billion -- above
expectations.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶4. The April trade surplus reached USD 1.3 billion,
above market expectations of USD 1 billion. Growth of
both exports and imports decelerated. Exports
increased 8 percent y-o-y to USD 3.8 billion,
following 16 percent y-o-y growth in March, with
increases in both price (+4 percent) and quantity (+4
percent). The stronger-than-expected result came in
spite of the GOA meat export ban -- which is estimated
to have reduced exports by USD 70 million, according
to private consultants -- and smaller corn and wheat
crops. Exports were driven by an increase in fuel and
energy (+9 percent y-o-y), agro-industrial products
(+8 percent y-o-y), industrial goods (+11 percent y-o-
y) and primary goods (+3 percent y-o-y). Imports
increased 7 percent y-o-y to USD 2.5 billion,
decelerating after March's 24 percent y-o-y increase,
with increases in both quantity (+5 percent) and price
(+2 percent). Imports were driven by increases in
accessories for capital goods (+8 percent), passenger
vehicles (+47 percent), consumer goods (+22 percent)
and capital goods (+24 percent), and decreases in fuel
and oil (-28 percent) and in intermediate goods (-5
percent). According to the BCRA consensus survey, the
trade surplus is expected to narrow to USD 8.9 billion
in 2006 compared to USD 11.3 billion in 2005.
--------------------------------------------- --------
President Kirchner announces that unemployment
decreased to 10.8 percent in April.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶5. On May 31, President Kirchner preliminary
announced that the unemployment rate decreased to 10.8
percent in April -- compared to 11.4 percent in the
first quarter of 2006-- but still higher than the 10.1
percent reported in the fourth quarter of 2005. These
unemployment figures exclude participants in the
Head-of-Household income supplement plan. Their
inclusion would increase the unemployment rate by at
least 2 percentage points. The BCRA consensus survey
forecasts that unemployment will fall to 9.2 percent
at the end of 2006. Unemployment peaked at 24 percent
in May 2003.
--------------------------------------------- --------
BCRA to measure core inflation.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶6. In a press release dated May 22, the BCRA
announced that it is developing a new index to measure
core inflation to identify general and persistent
price changes but exclude price increases of those
goods that have a volatile price trend. The BCRA
inflation index will be used for internally to manage
monetary policy and will not replace the Indec --
National Bureau of Statistics-- CPI index.
--------------------------------------------- --------
AySA to announce investments for ARP 9 billion for the
next five years.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶7. AySA (Agua y Saneamientos Argentina S.A.) will
present to the GOA a ARP 9 billion five-year
investment program for potable water and sewerage
works in Buenos Aires province and the city of Buenos
Aires. Financing sources for this investment are not
yet defined, but according to an AySA representative,
alternative financing sources include: the GOA, the
Buenos Aires provincial government and credits from
IFIs. AySA's own capital contribution will be ARP 150
million.
--------------------------------------------- --------
GOA reportedly will delay new bond issuance.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶8. On May 31, Cronista Comercial reported that the
GOA will delay the issuance of USD 500 million of the
Bonar V bond due to recent international financial
market instability, particularly in emerging markets.
The GOA still needs USD 300-500 million to close this
year's financial program. However, the GOA may chose
to close its financing gap through bond sales to the
Government of Venezuela (GOV) or the GOA's fiscal
surplus if international capital markets remains
unstable. Although 2006 financial schedule is still
not closed, the GOA wants to start its 2007 financing
program soon, since 2007 is an election year.
--------------------------------------------- --------
BCRA rolls over its maturities maintaining interest
rates almost unchanged.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶9. The BCRA received ARP 984 million in bids at its
May 30 Lebac and Nobac auction, compared to the ARP
559 million in Lebacs that came due during the week.
It accepted Lebac bids totaled ARP 401 million
representing 60 percent of the total, with Nobac bids
accepted for the remaining 40 percent. Short-term
Lebacs were withdrawn since the BCRA was not willing
to accept the higher interest rates demanded. The
yield on the 175-day Lebac increased 11 basis points
from 8.25 percent to 8.36 percent, while the yield on
the 266-day Lebac decreased slightly from 10.40
percent to 10.38 percent. The yield on the longest
term Lebac, the 364-day Lebac, was 11.90 percent.
Lebacs for maturities of more than 364 days were
withdrawn due to lack of interest. The spread on the
one-year Nobac decreased from 2.12 percent to 2.10
percent and for the two-year Nobac from 3.37 percent
to 3.35 percent. The Badlar rate (the base rate for
Nobacs) is currently at 8.9 percent.
--------------------------------------------- --------
Moody's raises its ratings on domestic banks.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶10. On May 31, Moody's rating agency raised its
rating on many domestic banks including Macro Bansud,
Patagonia, Suquia, Ciudad de Buenos Aires, Itau, Rio,
Frances, Credicoop and Banco de Valores. The upgrade
is based on banks' increased incomes, improved quality
of banks' assets and decreased exposure to the public
sector.
--------------------------------------------- --------
Private sector financing increased to 27 percent of
GDP in 2005.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶11. Private sector financing increased from ARP 64
billion (17 percent of GDP) in 2003 to ARP 146 billion
(27 percent of GDP) in 2005. [Financing to the
private sector reached a peak of 52 percent of GDP in
1999.] Bank loans represented 87 percent (of total
financing) in 2005 compared to 94 percent in 2003.
Other forms of financing including leasing, fiduciary
trusts and ADRs increased their participation to the
remaining 13 percent in 2005. Private sector
financing in pesos reached 87 percent in 2005 --
compared to 13 percent in 2001. In tandem, USD
financing participation decreased from 43 percent of
the total in 2001 to13 percent in 2005. The shift in
currency is mainly explained by GOA pesification in
2002 and expectations about the evolution of the
exchange rate, as well as by regulations discouraging
financing in foreign currencies.
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Quasi-Par bond to start trading at the stock exchange.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶12. The Quasi-Par bond -- one of the bonds issued
during the GOA debt restructuring-- will start trading
at the stock exchange June 2 (one year after its
issuance, as established in the debt prospectus).
[The Quasi-Par is a 42-year bond adjusted by CER (CPI-
linked index), carrying a coupon of 3.31 percent that
is capitalized until 2013.] Trading of this bond is
expected to be reduced since AFJPs (private pension
funds) hold 90 percent of the issue amount of ARP 24.3
billion, and they are likely to hold onto the Quasi-
Pars, as they match their obligation flows.
Furthermore, AFJPs have Quasi-Par bonds valued at an
average of ARP 93 -- higher than the expected market
price of ARP 56-63 -- which would cause funds to
recognize a loss if they sell them at market prices.
The expected market price of ARP 56-63 implies a yield
of 6.5 percent and 7 percent plus CER.
--------------------------------------------- --------
Employment index increased 0.6 percent m-o-m in April
- according to Ministry of Labor survey.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶13. The Ministry of Labor announced that its
employment index increased 0.6 percent m-o-m in March.
The construction sector had the highest job creation
in March (up 3.1 percent m-o-m), followed by trade and
services (up 0.6 percent m-o-m), while job creation in
the manufacturing remained stable. The index
increased 8.6 percent y-o-y. (The index is based on
surveys from the cities of Buenos Aires, Mendoza,
Rosario, Cordoba and Tucuman).
--------------------------------------------- --------
The World Bank will finance a program to end the Head-
of-Households Plans.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶14. The World Bank will finance a USD 3.3 billion
program designed to gradually end the Head-of-
Households income supplement plans. 1.5 million
people now receive benefits under these plans. The
program is expected to reduce that to less than a
million over three years. The World Bank believes
that these plans were helpful during the crisis, but
that they should not be maintained on a permanent
basis.
--------------------------------------------- --------
Argentine provinces at risk of running fiscal deficit.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶15. The Minister of Economy of Buenos Aires province,
Gerardo Otero, admitted that the province's fiscal
balance may turn negative in coming months and
complained about the disequilibria between GOA
resources and provincial expenditures. Private
consultants estimated that all provinces combined
primary fiscal surplus may drop 41 percent to ARP 2.6
million in 2006 -- compared to ARP 4.4 billion in
¶2005. Provinces are also seeking to restructure their
debt, which is owed mainly to the GOA. [Total
provincial debt stock currently stands at ARP 60
billion.]
--------------------------------------------- --------
Natural gas distributors cut gas supplies to
industrial customers due to colder weather.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶16. Natural gas distributors, Metrogas and Gas
Natural Ban -- two of the main providers of natural
gas in the city of Buenos Aires -- started cutting
compressed natural gas supplies to filling stations,
industrial clients and power generators (all of which
had interruptible contracts) this week due to higher
demand during the colder winter season. Residential
users are shielded from restrictions. Gas
restrictions and shortages to customers started in
2004, and since then compressed gas stations and
industries have been increasingly forced to sign
interruptible contracts.
--------------------------------------------- --------
May Government Confidence Index down 2 percent m-o-m -
- second consecutive decrease.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶17. The Government Confidence Index decreased 2
percent m-o-m in May to 2.50 points, 0.10 below the
average during the Kirchner administration, but still
well above the 1.2 point reading in May 2003 when
President Kirchner took office. Confidence in the
GOA's ability to solve citizens' problems is still the
factor generating the most confidence, remaining the
same as in April. Public opinion of the GOA's general
performance also remains flat m-o-m, honesty of GOA
officials and efficiency of public spending decreased
10 percent and 3 percent m-o-m, respectively. The
index rose 5 percent y-o-y. [The Government
Confidence Index is a survey-based index prepared by
Di Tella University. It varies from zero to five
points and seeks to measure public opinion of GOA's
general performance, efficiency of pubic spending,
honesty of GOA officials and the government's ability
to solve problems.]
--------------------------------------------- --------
Tourism increased 63 percent y-o-y in the first quater
of 2006.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶18. The National Bureau of Statistics (INDEC)
announced that net tourism (incoming minus outgoing
tourists) increased 63 percent y-o-y to 265,000 in the
first quarter of 2006, as a result of the number of
incoming tourists increasing to 560,000 (up 22 percent
q-o-q) while the number of outgoing tourists remaining
nearly unchanged at 295,000. The increase in incoming
tourism is mainly explained by a 38 percent increase
in individuals coming to spend their holidays (68
percent of the total). Preferred destinations include
the city of Buenos Aires, the Atlantic cost and
Cordoba Province, chosen by 42 percent, 8 percent and
6 percent of tourists, respectively. Visiting
tourists were mainly from the European Union (32
percent), followed by U.S. and Canada (19 percent) and
the rest of Latin America (14 percent).
--------------------------------------------- --------
Construction sector incentives signal continuous
growth in the sector.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶19. The Q ratio -- measuring the average price of new
properties over the construction cost -- calculated by
UADE (Universidad Argentina de la Empresa) increased
0.4 points q-o-q to 2.9 points in the first quarter of
¶2006. This means that the average value of the new
properties is nearly three times the cost of
construction, creating large incentives to invest in
the construction sector. Buildings construction
increased 13 percent q-o-q and square meters permits
(for new construction) increased 75 percent q-o-q in
Q1 2006. The construction sector index has grown for
thirteen consecutives quarters since the beginning of
¶2003.
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Banks have excess liquidity to lend.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶20. Banks have nearly ARP 9 billion available to
lend, according to private consultants. However,
credit demand cannot be fulfilled due to customers'
failure to meet credit rating requirements. The
financial system liquidity ratio -- cash in banks,
banks' deposits at the BCRA and engaged in repo
transactions with the BCRA -- is 22.5 percent compared
to 21 percent one month ago, and it has increased 3.4
percent so far in 2006.
--------------------------------------------- --------
The peso depreciated 1 percent against the USD in the
last two weeks, closing at 3.10 ARP/USD.
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶21. The peso depreciated 1 percent versus the USD
during the last two weeks, closing at 3.10 ARP/USD.
The peso's depreciation is attributed to higher
private investors' demand for dollars as a result of
the contagion effect from international markets. The
BCRA even sold dollars in the FX market to avoid a
larger depreciation of the peso. However, the BCRA
intervention during the last two weeks reached net
purchases of USD 77 million. The peso exchange rate
has depreciated 1.6 percent since the beginning of the
calendar year.
--------------------------------------------- --------
Commentary of the Week: "The Need for Anti-Cyclical
Policies", by Martn Redrado, President of the
Central Bank of Argentina. (Note: Translated from an
article published May 11 in La Nacin. End Note.)
--------------------------------------------- --------
¶22. The financial world - as much in the academic
sphere as in the professional - dedicates much of its
time to trying to identify the origin of the next
crisis. The global economy shows a growth that is more
balanced geographically, with inflationary pressures
that appear to be contained in the short term. In
this framework, Latin America - which today is more
sensitive to China, India, or Russia's demand for raw
materials than to changes in international interest
rates - finds itself in a solid financial position
with sustained growth and twin surpluses (fiscal and
trade) strengthened by consistent and prudent monetary
policies. In the midst of this opportunity, we don't
appear on the radar as an epicenter of an eventual
global collapse.
¶23. Even though the focus of uncertainty is
constrained today, demand pressures on available
capacity have already begun to appear. The greatest
risks are concentrated in structural vulnerabilities,
such as the growing global inequalities between the
United States, the Asian-Pacific region and
continental Europe. In this respect, the likelihood
that less favorable conditions will materialize
requires that countries like Argentina implement anti-
cyclical macroeconomic policies -- including the
accumuation of international reserves, fiscal
savings, and a regulatory environment that permits the
establishment of solid financial systems -- that are
capable of lessening the potential impacts on internal
variables and of preserving sustainable growth.
¶24. The Central Bank provides real anti-crisis
security through its policy of increasing reserves,
which acts as a guarantee in the face of our recurrent
vulnerability to external events. More than ever, we
live in a world that is experimenting with a change of
focus in international financial rules, one in which
the old paradigm is being strongly questioned. Given
the absence of a lender of last resort and the still
incomplete redefining of the global financial
architecture, international reserves should be thought
of as a real guarantee against these risks. In other
words: in the modern world, there is no good
substitute for a healthy policy of internal liquidity,
and self-insurance is the only way to achieve this.
One asks, then, does this anti-cyclical policy have an
expansionary impact on monetary stability? Simply
put, no. This impact does not occur because the
"other face" of reserve accumulation is the absorption
of the money supply that exceeds the demand for money
in the economy. This sterilization program consists
of three elements: a financial system that pays off
its debts early, a public sector that saves, and a
Central Bank with a strong balance sheet. These
factors reflect the depth and, above all, the unusual
quality of the sterilization strategy: there is no
expansion of internal credit through monetization of
the fiscal deficit or assistance to the financial
system as in past decades.
¶25. We implement a strong restrictive policy of
monetary absorption through a battery of instruments
such as the placement of bonds in the market, the
cancellation of discount window lending, repurchase
agreement operations and open market operations with a
portfolio of public securities. In effect, the
anticipated repayment of discount window lending that
was granted during the crisis was one of the principal
factors in the contraction of the money supply during
the past twelve months. Since the beginning of last
year, we have created new instruments for the pre-
payment of this liquidity assistance. These healthy
and unique operations represent repayments on the
order of ARP 9.5 billion in 2005 and ARP 5.7 billion
so far in 2006, reflecting the improvement in the
balance sheets of financial entities and the monetary
authority's concern for banks' balance sheets
¶26. At the same time, we have eliminated the
possibility of excessive monetary supply through the
net issuance of market securities that established
reference interest rates, and the issuance of Notes
and Bills at fixed and variable rates, that have
produced a lengthening of the maturity of the Central
Bank liabilities. This policy of absorption has been
possible thanks to a renovated financial system and
the strength of the Central Bank's balance sheet,
which show earnings greater than ARP 2 billion.
¶27. This policy of sterilization has permitted us to
keep the money supply under strict control, which has
been reflected in the fulfillment, quarter after
quarter, of our self-imposed targets for the growth of
monetary aggregates. In our Monetary Program -
presented every year to the Senate - we make
projections based on the different factors that
determine money supply. Based on the interaction
between supply and demand for money, we project the
need for sterilization, as required for the expected
development of the main instruments of monetary
regulation.
¶28. Further, the Central Bank is building a monetary-
financial system that, for the first time in decades,
will be independent of the financial needs of the
public sector. To do this, we have set guidelines
that determine the specific limits for the exposure of
the financial system to the national, provincial and
municipal public sectors. First, maximum limits have
been established depending on the capital of each
financial entity and on the type of debt (e.g. from
national, provincial or municipal government) held in
the portfolio. Second, we have set a total maximum
limit of 40 percent of banks' total assets, which went
into effect at the beginning of this year. In this
way, we are reversing at an accelerated pace the
crowding out of private credit in favor of public
sector financing that occurred in past decades. In
the last twelve months, public debt's share in banks'
portfolios decreased ten percentage points, reaching a
level of 28 percent. Credits to businesses and
families, on the other hand, grew nearly 38 percent
during the same period. This trend has been
significant in terms of giving additional degrees of
freedom for monetary policy and the financial system.
This factor is crucial, in Argentina as well as in
Latin America, where excessive financing of the
government historically has been ignored when
evaluating the independence of central banks.
¶29. The challenge lies, then, in consolidating the
continuation of these policies, given that their depth
and quality is as relevant as their stability over
time. The challenges that we face are not sequential
but simultaneous: to grow and create lasting policies
that guarantee sustained economic growth with social
inclusion in a framework of permanent monetary and
financial stability. (Note: We reproduce selected
articles by local experts for the benefit of our
readers. The opinions expressed are those of the
authors, not of the Embassy. End Note.)
GUTIERREZ