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Viewing cable 06BOGOTA5330, COLOMBIA'S STOCK MARKET - BACK WHERE WE STARTED IN

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06BOGOTA5330 2006-06-13 22:24 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Bogota
VZCZCXYZ0021
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBO #5330 1642224
ZNR UUUUU ZZH CCY ADXE1TEF0 MSI9280 612
R 132224Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5902
INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6908
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 7848
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ JUN LIMA 3915
RUEHZP/AMEMBASSY PANAMA 9254
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 4560
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
UNCLAS BOGOTA 005330 
 
SIPDIS 
C O R R E C T E D COPY //PARAGRAPH 4 SECOND SENTENCE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EINV CO
SUBJECT: COLOMBIA'S STOCK MARKET - BACK WHERE WE STARTED IN 
2005 
 
 
1. Colombia's stock market index (IGBC) has fallen more than 
30 percent between May 2 and June 12, 2006.  On June 8, the 
index fell 9.47 percent, and on June 12 trading was halted 15 
minutes before the closing bell because of a more than 10 
percent loss in the value of the index.  Overall, the index 
has dropped to pre-December 2005 numbers, which are still 3 
times greater than 2003 figures.  Economists and brokers 
alike expressed surprise at the rapid decline of the index, 
given current positive economic conditions in Colombia. 
Throughout the 2005 boom, Central Bankers predicted the 
market could react negatively to changes in international 
economic conditions (especially related to U.S. interest rate 
trends).  Colombia's economic indicators remain strong. 
 
2. Throughout 2005, the IGBC ranked among the top five 
world-wide on return on investment as rated by the Bloomberg 
Company.  The index is made up of the 34 most traded 
companies, including the banking, construction, and petroleum 
sectors. Experts attribute the majority of the 2005 gains to 
the market dynamics surrounding the sale of the Bavaria 
brewery to SAB Miller and to the privatization of ColTabaco 
and the Granahorrar bank.  In 2003, the index began near 2000 
point level, but by the end of 2004, the index had more than 
doubled in value to over 4000 points on positive economic 
news and national security gains.  The index doubled again in 
2005, ending the year over 9500.  The index reached its 
highest level in March of 2006 at 11,094.  According to 
Mauricio Botero, former president of the stock exchange, the 
volume of trading has grown significantly over the past five 
years.  In 2001, trading totaled between two and three 
million dollars in volume per day compared with the 50 to 60 
million-dollar per day averages in April 2006. 
 
Monthly average index and value of shares traded 
 
MONTH     Index      Value of Shares Traded (VST) 
05 Jun    5563.57      776 mln 
05 Jul    6240.39      823 mln 
05 Aug    6708.01    2.1 bln 
05 Sep    6918.76    1.6 bln 
05 Oct    7195.11      535 mln 
05 Nov    8600.61    7.9 bln 
05 Dec    9513.25   19.0 bln 
06 Jan   11094.93   15.4 bln 
06 Feb   11080.24    6.9 bln 
06 Mar   11094.64    3.7 bln 
06 Apr   11076.22    1.7 bln 
06 May    9045.16    2.7 bln 
 
DATE       Index    VST        Percent Change 
06 01 Jun  9061     23 mln          0.177 
06 02 Jun  9122     43 mln          0.672 
06 05 Jun  9100     20 mln        - 0.233 
06 06 Jun  8821     27 mln        - 3.070 
06 07 Jun  8214     48 mln        - 6.882 
06 08 Jun  7435     35 mln        - 9.478 
06 09 Jun  7538     39 mln          1.383 
06 12 Jun  6749     52 mln        -10.463 
(xchange rate: 2300 COP = 1 USD) 
 
3.  Well before the recent downturn, the executive director 
of the Central Bank expressed concern that the U.S. Federal 
Reserve's inflation targeting measures would eventually move 
foreign investment capital away from emerging markets.  This 
appears to be happening across the Colombian economy, as 
stocks, bonds, and the peso have all taken hits over the past 
three months.  Colombia's overall economic health is strong, 
however.   A steadily declining unemployment rate (16 percent 
in January 06 falling to 12.7 percent in April 06), 
consistently low inflation (near 4 percent) and a growing GDP 
(around 5 percent) indicate the economy is still doing well. 
Now we will have to see if the capital market turbulence is a 
disruptive factor in the "real" economy. 
 
4. Comment: The Colombian capital markets are thinly traded 
and more volatile than larger markets.  Moreover, price 
earnings and capital value to equity ratios had climbed to 
stratospheric levels in early 2006.  A correction was almost 
inevitable and rising U.S. interest rates with falling global 
markets were the catalysts for revaluation of Colombian 
equities. 
DRUCKER