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Viewing cable 06TALLINN451, ESTONIA: MERGER OF RES PUBLICA AND PRO PATRIA

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06TALLINN451 2006-05-12 14:43 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Tallinn
VZCZCXRO2891
RR RUEHAG RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN RUEHLZ
RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHTL #0451 1321443
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 121443Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY TALLINN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8593
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS TALLINN 000451 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV EN
SUBJECT: ESTONIA: MERGER OF RES PUBLICA AND PRO PATRIA 
UNION WILL BE COMPLETED AT THE BEGINNING OF JUNE 
 
REF: TALLINN 322 
 
1. (U) Summary:  Estonian opposition political parties 
Res Publica and Pro Patria Union have completed 
preparatory work for their merger, announced in early 
April (reftel).  The boards of the parties have approved 
the merger agreement and a working version of new 
statutes, both of which will be submitted for approval 
to party general assemblies on June 4.  Res Publica 
board member Urmas Reinsalu told us he believes 
consolidation on the right will help minimize the 
chances of a left-wing Center Party/People's Union 
coalition seizing power in next year's parliamentary 
elections.  End summary. 
 
2. (U) A survey conducted after the announced merger, 
and published the week of May 8, indicates that combined 
support for Res Publica and Pro Patria stands at 15 
percent, equal to support expressed for the right-of- 
center Reform party of Prime Minister Andrus Ansip. 
According to the survey, Pro Patria was ranked third in 
voter preference with 10 percent support, while Res 
Publica enjoyed the support of five percent of voters. 
Res Publica's ratings were up slightly from three 
percent in March, while Pro Patria has held steady at 
ten percent support for several months.   The Center 
Party remains the most popular political party in 
Estonia, with 22 percent support. 
 
3.  (SBU) In an April meeting Res Publica board member 
and MP Urmas Reinsalu told us the new party would 
maintain a "federal" leadership structure for a planned 
one-year transition.  Reinsalu claimed this was partly a 
result of Pro Patria's fear that Res Publica's stronger 
leadership would quickly dominate the combined party. 
Reinsalu added that he hoped it wouldn't be "Yugoslavia- 
style federalism." 
 
4. (SBU) Reinsalu thought the combined party could lose 
some members on the fringes -- the far right of Pro 
Patria who saw Res Publica as the "butchers of Lihula" 
(a reference to then-PM Juhan Parts' forcible removal of 
a monument to Estonia's war dead in Waffen SS uniform) 
and the Russian-speaking end of Res Publica's 
membership.  On the other end of the spectrum, an April 
meeting of Res Publica?s heavily Russian-speaking Narva 
party board had been "hot," according to Reinsalu, but 
ended with a vote in support of the merger.  Looking 
ahead he thought the combined party would be in a strong 
position to place second after the Center Party in the 
2007 parliamentary elections.  The merger had helped 
forestall a possible left-wing Center Party, People's 
Union coalition, he thought, that otherwise would have 
been the likely composition of the next Estonian 
government. 
 
5. (U) It is unclear who will take the reins of the 
combined party, though several names have emerged in 
speculation.  Among them are Tartu University Rector and 
presidential candidate Jaak Aaviksoo, Estonia's 
Ambassador to the United States Juri Luik, and MP and 
former Prime Minister Mart Laar.  All have reportedly 
declined the offer, with the exception of Aaviksoo who 
claims not to have been approached.  The Estonian daily 
Postimees quotes Aaviksoo as saQng that he sees "rocks 
ahead" because the cultures of the organizations are so 
different, but that should the merger go forward, 
"Estonian politics will only win in the long run.? 
 
GOLDSTEIN