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Viewing cable 06SEOUL1791, GNP LEAD WIDENS AFTER ATTACK ON PARK GEUN-HYE

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06SEOUL1791 2006-05-26 09:42 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Seoul
VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHUL #1791/01 1460942
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 260942Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY SEOUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8154
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0703
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 0778
RHMFIUU/COMUSKOREA J5 SEOUL KOR
RHMFIUU/COMUSKOREA J2 SEOUL KOR
RHMFIUU/COMUSKOREA SCJS SEOUL KOR
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS SEOUL 001791 
 
SIPDIS 
CORRECTED COPY- CAPTION AND DISTRIBUTION 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL KS KN
SUBJECT: GNP LEAD WIDENS AFTER ATTACK ON PARK GEUN-HYE 
 
REF: A. SEOUL 1713 
     B. SEOUL 1642 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.  (SBU) Polls indicate that the May 20 attack on the main 
opposition Grand National Party (GNP) leader and presidential 
hopeful Park Geun-hye has influenced voters in swing 
provinces to vote GNP, which is forecasted to win at least 11 
out of the 16 major mayoral and gubernatorial contests. 
Sympathy votes generated by the attack on Park could even tip 
the scales in Daejeon, where the Uri incumbent's lead is 
narrowing, and Jeju, where the GNP now holds a slight edge 
over the independent incumbent.  The ruling Uri candidates 
appear to be guaranteed a win in only the North Jeolla 
Province.  In the face of defeat, Uri Party members have 
desperately pleaded to voters to prevent a GNP sweep; 
however, a landslide defeat appears inevitable and will 
likely cause the party's leadership to reorganize. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
GNP'S APPROVAL RATINGS UP 
------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) The popularity of the main opposition Grand 
National Party (GNP) and its leader Park Geun-hye increased 
substantially after Park was attacked by an assailant with a 
box-cutter while campaigning on behalf of the GNP mayor 
candidate in Seoul (Ref A).  She suffered a deep four inch 
cut to her face that required 60 stitches.  Following the 
attack, polls have placed Park in the lead as a potential 
presidential candidate in next year's election.  In a survey 
conducted May 20-22 by MBC, Park placed first with 21.5 
percent, followed by former Prime Minister Goh Kun with 21.1 
percent, and Seoul Mayor Lee Myung-bak at third with 18.1 
percent. 
 
3.  (SBU) The attack appears to have helped Park project a 
new image among the Korean public as a tough but calm leader. 
 As a leading contender for the GNP nomination for next 
year's presidential race, the attack may also boost Park's 
chance of winning the party's nomination and the presidency, 
although, of course, the election is still eighteen months 
away. (NOTE: Park is the daughter of former President Park 
Chung-hee who led South Korea from 1961 until his 
assassination in October 1979.  Her mother was also 
assassinated, in August 1974.  She will be stepping down as 
the party chairwoman in July to prepare her presidential bid. 
END NOTE.) 
 
GAP CLOSING IN JEJU AND DAEJEON 
------------------------------- 
 
4.  (SBU) General disappointment with the ruling Uri Party 
and President Roh Moo-hyun among South Koreans coupled with 
the attack on Park have put the GNP well ahead of Uri in the 
May 31 local elections.  A recent poll by Gallup Korea 
indicates that after the incident, the GNP support jumped to 
44 percent compared to the Uri Party's 20.1 percent.  In 
February, a similar Gallup poll had shown the GNP at 35 
percent, and the Uri Party at 22.8 percent. 
 
5.  (SBU) In Jeju, where the incumbent candidate had a 
sizable lead a few weeks ago, the GNP candidate is now 
running neck and neck.  A recent poll conducted after the 
attack by KBS/Media Research now show Kim Tae-hwan (Ind.) at 
31.2 percent and Hyun Myung-kwan (GNP) at 31.4 percent. 
Previous polls showed Kim with 36 percent and Hyun with 19 
percent (Ref B). 
 
6.  (SBU) In Daejeon, Park Sung-hyo (GNP) is also catching up 
to incumbent Daejeon Mayor Yum Hong-chul (Uri).  Daejeon, 
located in the Chungcheong Province, is a key swing bloc. 
The assault appears to have led some voters toward voting 
GNP.  A poll conducted the day after the attack by the 
Hankook Ilbo showed that Yum's support dropped from 46 
percent to 40 percent but Park's support rose only modestly 
from 23 percent to 23.8 percent. 
 
SEOUL: GNP GUARANTEED TO WIN 
---------------------------- 
 
7.  (SBU) In Seoul, Oh Se-hoon (GNP) is expected to win the 
mayoral race with overwhelming support over Kang Kum-sil 
(Uri); he leads 51 percent to Kang's 25 percent, according to 
a poll conducted by the JoongAng Daily.  Earlier polls showed 
Oh with 50 percent and Kang with 32 percent (Ref B).  Oh, a 
former lawyer and assemblymen, chose to run for the mayor of 
Seoul at the last minute and easily won the GNP bid.  His 
youthfulness and fresh ideas have made him popular among the 
public.  Former Justice Minister Kang, who also has popular 
appeal, has seen her support steadily decline over the past 
month. 
 
URI PARTY POST LOCAL ELECTIONS 
------------------------------ 
 
8.  (SBU) In a desperate plea to voters, the ruling Uri party 
and its leader Chung Dong-young, gathered at a news 
conference on May 25 urging voters not to allow a sweeping 
victory for the GNP.  To rally last minute support from 
undecided voters, the Uri Party acknowledged on national 
television that they were painfully aware of the public's 
dissatisfaction with the party and pleaded to voters to give 
their candidates a chance. 
 
9.  (SBU) Yet, a landslide defeat appears inevitable for the 
Uri Party in 11 out of the 16 mayor and governor contests, 
and potentially 12 if including Jeju.  Prof. Lee Nae-young of 
Korea University, a specialist on elections and polling, 
noted that Uri leader Chung will likely have to take 
responsibility for the defeat even though expectations for 
success were minimal. 
 
10.  (SBU) According to Lee and media reporting, the Uri 
Party may also try to realign itself with another party, 
potentially the Democratic Party and/or the People First 
Party, to form an anti-GNP coalition.  Lee noted that the Uri 
Party may try to recruit Goh Kun who is currently 
unaffiliated with a political party to lead the new 
coalition.  However, Goh will likely not align himself with a 
losing Uri party; in March 2006, Goh had rejected a Uri 
partnership.  Instead, he may be holding out for a new 
political party to form.  In public opinion polls, Goh 
routinely ranks first or second as a potential presidential 
candidate. 
 
11.  (SBU) COMMENT. One important reason Chung must assume 
responsibility for Uri's inevitable defeat is that he 
insisted to President Roh that then Prime Minister Lee 
Hae-chan resign over the golf scandal.  Chung apparently 
persuaded Roh that retaining Lee would be disastrous in the 
coming elections, and so, Lee had to go. END COMMENT. 
VERSHBOW