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Viewing cable 06SEOUL1779, BUSAN: GNP POISED FOR CLEAN SWEEP

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06SEOUL1779 2006-05-26 05:21 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Seoul
VZCZCXYZ0001
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHUL #1779/01 1460521
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 260521Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY SEOUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8136
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0697
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 0773
RHMFIUU/COMUSKOREA J2 SEOUL KOR
RHMFIUU/COMUSKOREA J5 SEOUL KOR
RHMFIUU/COMUSKOREA SCJS SEOUL KOR
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC//OSD/ISA/EAP//
UNCLAS SEOUL 001779 
 
SIPDIS 
CORRECTED COPY - CAPTION AND DISTRIBUTION 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KS
SUBJECT: BUSAN: GNP POISED FOR CLEAN SWEEP 
 
REF: A. 05 SEOUL 3215 
     B. 05 SEOUL 3368 
     C. SEOUL 1517 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.  (SBU) The Grand National Party's (GNP) is poised, once 
again, to vanquish all challengers in the Busan region in the 
May 31 regional elections.  Dissatisfaction with the Roh 
Administration appears to have hardened the Gyeongsang 
Provinces' traditional loyalty to the conservative GNP.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
VICTORY EXPECTED FOR GNP INCUMBENT MAYOR 
---------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) Busan's incumbent mayor, Hur Nam-sik (GNP), is 
expected to defeat main rival Oh Geo-don (Uri), former 
Minister of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries, by a margin of at 
least two to one.  Polls earlier this week showed Hur leading 
50 percent to Oh's 21 percent; the far-left Democratic Labor 
Party (DLP) candidate, Kim Seok-joon, trailed with 12 
percent.  Hur had previously defeated Oh for the same job in 
the April 2004 by-election. 
 
3.  (SBU) According to Prof. Kang Sung-chul of Busan National 
University, the GNP would win this major mayoral race not 
only because of the Gyeongsang region's traditional loyalty 
to the GNP, but also because of widespread dissatisfaction 
with President Roh and his Uri Party and continuing pessimism 
about the economy.  Although there had recently been some 
scandals involving the GNP -- including Mayor Hur, whose wife 
is accused of unauthorized use of public services -- voters 
would remain loyal to their party.  Prof. Kang assessed that 
the region's loyalty to the GNP was such that the attack on 
GNP Chairwoman Park Geun-hye would not significantly affect 
the GNP's popularity one way or the other. 
 
VOTERS DISSATISFIED WITH URI 
---------------------------- 
 
4.  (SBU) Like all other observers, Rep. Cho Kyung-tae (Uri), 
the sole Uri lawmaker elected from Busan, admitted to poloff 
May 19 that the Uri Party had "no hope" of winning the Busan 
mayoral race.  Despite that knowledge, Uri had to field a 
candidate on the off-chance of picking up a handful of 
proportional seats in some local councils.  Cho stated that 
the Uri Party was at a crossroads and would have to make some 
serious changes after the May 31 elections if it were to 
survive the aftermath of its certain defeat. 
 
5.  (SBU) Cho added, however, that the GNP's predicted 
success in Busan did not necessarily mean that voters 
supported the GNP.  Rather, he opined, voters were 
disillusioned with both parties and were picking the lesser 
of the two evils.  In fact, voter turn-out, according to the 
National Election Commission, is expected to reach a record 
low.  The 2002 regional elections saw a turn-out of only 48.9 
percent, low by Korean historical standards.  Experts predict 
that younger voters are likely to be no-shows at polls on May 
31 as they tended to be uninterested in local politics. 
 
"IT'S THE ECONOMY STUPID" 
------------------------- 
 
6.  (SBU) Rep. Kim Byung-ho, the GNP's Busan Chapter Chairman 
and a two-term lawmaker, told poloff that the core issue of 
the local elections was the economy.  Voters were worried 
about economic growth, the gap between rich and poor, and 
unemployment -- all issues that voters believed the Roh 
Administration was mishandling.  Sounding a cautious note, 
Kim stated that the GNP should not mistake its victory on May 
31 as a sign of likely voter favor.  Rather, Kim said, it was 
simply that voters believed the GNP would do a better job 
halting the economic decline of Busan and other areas outside 
Seoul. 
 
7.  (SBU) Rep. Kim recalled that Busan, the second largest 
city in the ROK, was once a vibrant economic center with its 
port and numerous factories.  During the 1980s and 1990s, 
however, the many shoe, plywood, and textile factories moved 
overseas.  Busan's young adults were now leaving for Seoul 
because they could not find jobs locally.  Not only did this 
drain young talent from Busan, Kim lamented, it also made 
Busan the fastest aging city in all of Korea (REFS A, B), 
which already has the lowest fertility rate of all the OECD 
countries (the ROK's 2005 fertility rate dropped to 1.08). 
In addition, Busan was ranked to have the third worst 
domestic economy. 
 
GNP NEEDS TO ADAPT FOR PRESIDENTIAL RACE 
---------------------------------------- 
 
8.  (SBU) Rep. Kim noted that the GNP was experiencing 
internal problems and would need to find a way to remain 
cohesive after May 31.  Kim's sense, however, was that these 
internal problems were not bad enough to result in the 
party's break-up.  The party simply needed to modernize and 
make more efforts to draw in Korea's younger generation, many 
of whom identify themselves as conservative, Kim said. 
 
9.  (SBU) According to Park Young-kyung, Chief of the Busan 
Ilbo's Political Desk, although voters would crown the GNP on 
May 31, they were nonetheless disenchanted with the GNP's 
excessive focus on politicking rather than public service. 
Park, too, warned that the GNP's coming victory did not 
necessarily mean it would win the presidential race.  The GNP 
could not count on the continuing popularity of potential GNP 
candidates Park Geun-hye or Seoul Mayor Lee Myung-bak, nor 
should it presume that the Uri Party would continue to make 
mistakes.  The 2007 presidential race, Park stressed, was 
still up for grabs. 
VERSHBOW