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Viewing cable 06SEOUL1732, DAEJEON: RULING PARTY'S SOLE HOPE FOR VICTORY

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06SEOUL1732 2006-05-23 08:24 2011-08-25 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Seoul
VZCZCXYZ0020
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHUL #1732/01 1430824
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 230824Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY SEOUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8062
INFO RHMFIUU/COMUSKOREA J2 SEOUL KOR
RHMFIUU/COMUSKOREA SCJS SEOUL KOR
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS SEOUL 001732 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KS
SUBJECT: DAEJEON: RULING PARTY'S SOLE HOPE FOR VICTORY 
 
REF: A. SEOUL 1642 
 
     B. SEOUL 1713 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.  (SBU) Daejeon City is one of the few races that the 
ruling Uri Party is reasonably projected to win in the 
upcoming May 31 local elections (Ref A), despite gains by the 
GNP in the aftermath of the recent attack on GNP Chairwoman 
Park Geun-hye (Ref B).  As Daejeon is the ROK's geographic 
heart, its burgeoning base of high-tech industry and the 
future home of its proposed administrative capital, a win 
here is not insignificant.  However, an Uri Party victory in 
Daejeon would more likely be the result of the personal 
popularity of incumbent Mayor Yom Hong-chul, than a vote of 
confidence in the ruling party.  Indications are that the 
People First Party, Shim Dae-pyong's new regional party, will 
not be a significant contender.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
FORMER GNP MAYOR LIKELY TO DRIVE URI SUCCESS 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) Daejeon Mayor Yum Hong-chul (Uri) retains a large 
lead over his rival and former Vice Mayor Park Sung-ho (GNP). 
 Rep. Park Byeong-seug, Chairman of the Uri Party Daejeon 
District chapter, said he was "99 percent" confident that Yum 
would be victorious in his reelection bid.  In a May 15 
conversation with poloff, Park said that Daejeon voters were 
concerned about economic issues, corruption in politics and 
the new administrative capital, which some feared might be in 
jeopardy if the GNP won the 2007 presidential election.  Yum, 
who defected from the GNP to join Uri in 2005, was perceived 
as strong on all three issues. 
 
2.  (SBU) Park acknowledged that Yum's success could not 
necessarily be seen as a measure of the Uri Party's 
popularity.  Pointing to local polls that showed the GNP's 
towering support rate and the GNP's lead in the five other 
local seats that are at stake, Park said that at least in 
Daejeon, the voters were supporting the candidate, not the 
party.  (NOTE: Park said that a critical race would be 
Gwangju, where Uri would focus most of its campaign 
resources.  END NOTE.). 
 
3.  (SBU) Chungnam University (located in Daejeon) Political 
Science Prof. Yoo Byeong-seon agreed that Yum's success was 
more personal, not indicative of support for the Uri Party. 
Yoo said that when Yum switched from the GNP to Uri, he 
brought with him 5,000 dues-paying members of the local GNP 
chapter.  In one stroke, Yum had mobilized a core of 
political loyalists in his favor, while gutting the ranks of 
the local GNP chapter. 
 
GNP CONFIDENT ABOUT FIVE OTHER REGIONAL SEATS 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
4.  (SBU) That said, GNP Daejeon District Chapter Chairman 
Kang Chang-hee told poloff May 15, it was too early to rule 
out a GNP victory for mayor.  He said that Yum enjoyed a 
large lead at the moment, but that was natural for any 
incumbent candidate. The biggest challenge in the region 
would be to overcome the misperception that the GNP was 
against the planned administrative city.  He said that some 
party members from Seoul were opposed, but the overall party 
position was to support the initiative.  Once the voters 
understood this point, he predicted, they would back GNP 
candidate Park Sung-ho. 
 
5.  (SBU) In fact, the gap between Yum and the GNP challenger 
has narrowed over the past few days in the aftermath of the 
May 27 attack on GNP Chairwoman Park (Ref B).  However, Park 
has not increased in popularity; rather, Yum has apparently 
decreased in popularity.  In the latest polls, 40 percent of 
the public supported Yum while 23 percent supported the GNP's 
Park.  In polls previous to the attack, Yum enjoyed a 46 
percent approval rating. 
 
6.  (SBU) Kang expressed more confidence, however, in the 
five other Daejeon-area races.  Kang echoed Park's 
observation that, aside from the mayoral race, GNP enjoyed 
higher support in general pre-election polling and was likely 
to win all other regional race in contention. 
 
PEOPLE FIRST PARTY FACES FIRST ELECTORAL TEST 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
7.  (SBU) Shim Dae-pyong, former South Chungcheong Province 
governor and Co-Chairman of the new People First Party (PFP) 
told poloff May 15 it was too early to predict the election 
because as many as 65 percent of voters were still undecided. 
 He said that because central province citizens trusted 
neither the GNP nor the Uri Party, he felt compelled to 
create his party "to give hope to the region."  Shim said 
that the two larger parties had no real interest in local 
politics and only traveled out of Seoul at election time. 
Despite the focus on regional issues, Shim said he envisioned 
a party with nationwide appeal. 
 
8.  (SBU) Dismissing talk of a merger with any other party as 
premature, Shim said that the PFP would establish its 
credibility in the local elections.  Asked about his 
widely-reported efforts to recruit former Mayor and Prime 
Minister Goh Kun to his party, Shim said that political 
circles would have to "wait and see." 
 
9.  (SBU) Political circles, however, did not seem too 
concerned about the PFP's prospects.  The GNP's Kang said 
that the country had moved beyond the regional politics that 
the PFP represented.  He said that although there was initial 
speculation that the party could signal a resurgence of 
regionalism, Kang believed that the party's low support rate 
and failure to attract any high-profile candidates were 
preliminary signs of failure.  The Uri Party's Park likewise 
believed that the PFP did not represent a formidable 
challenge, and said that it would be a major victory if the 
PFP were able to win even one seat. 
 
10.  (SBU) Chungnam University Political Science Prof. Cho 
Chan-rai concurred.  Cho told Poloff on May 16 that the PFP 
was an effort to resurrect the golden years of the United 
Liberal Democrats under Kim Jong-pil.  However, without Kim 
Jong-pil's charisma and organizational ability, Shim was 
likely to fail.  Cho also said that the major parties clearly 
understood the importance of central province voters and were 
paying more attention to their needs, thus undercutting the 
need for a regional party. 
 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
11.  (SBU) Daejeon is one of the few major races that the Uri 
Party might win in the May 31 local elections.  However, 
success there should not be read as an indicator of general 
support for the party, which is still posting overall support 
rates in the low 20s.  Mayor Yum, although on the Uri Party 
ballot, has until recently been a GNP politician and is 
running solely on his own, not the party's, popularity. 
Despite Yum's apparent strength, there is a chance that GNP 
Chairwoman Park Geun-hye, who has roots in the Chungcheong 
Province and proved herself to be a regional force during the 
2005 bye-elections, could make the race closer than currently 
projected.  The race may also be the first, and probably 
final, test of Shim's PFP.  With the PFP unlikely to win 
anything, it will likely descend into irrelevance and 
disappear.  END COMMENT. 
VERSHBOW